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Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?NO

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?40% chance

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Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?NO

Plus

By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

1%

Before January 2025

3%

Before February 2025

10%

Before March 2025

Resolved

NO

Before June 2024

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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?56% chance

Crystal

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?80% chance

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