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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?37% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?76% chance

AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market]

49%

Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.

13%

Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.

19%

Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful

30%

Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.

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#Artificial Intelligence

#Technical AI Timelines

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?25% chance

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?52% chance

What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)?

91%

achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)

91%

released in 2024

90%

support more agentic, time-consuming tasks with minimal input

83%

context window >= 500k tokens

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Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?22% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]

72%

It will be the SOTA for text to video

58%

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

56%

A second major version of the model has been released

15%

A third major version of the model has been released

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#Technical AI Timelines