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OpenAI
Deepseek
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
Trending
Ian Philips
Austin
100k
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
YES
3080
Ṁ100k
Scott Alexander
21k
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
40%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
3939
Ṁ21k
Scott Alexander
5.5k
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
69%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
2423
Ṁ5540
Daniel Reeves
10k
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
948
Ṁ10k
Manifold AI
15k
By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
Resolved
NO
Before June 2024
Open options
Resolved
NO
Before July 2024
Open options
Resolved
NO
Before August 2024
Open options
Resolved
NO
Before September 2024
Open options
See 16 more answers
632
Ṁ15k
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