By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
3.8k
Jun 2
1%
Before June 2024
17%
Before July 2024
25%
Before August 2024
32%
Before September 2024
39%
Before October 2024
49%
Before November 2024
68%
Before December 2024
73%
Before January 2025
79%
Before February 2025
87%
Before March 2025

OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5.

This market will resolve based on the official, confirmed public release of that anticipated model. If it is not named GPT-5 then Altman/OpenAI must make it clear that it is the same anticipated model which everyone has been expecting to be called GPT-5. If this is not clear, a model not named GPT-5 will not count for this resolution.

A test release like the GPT2 chatbots put up on Chatbot Arena before the release of GPT-4o would not count for this market, and neither would something like the preview release of GPT-4 through Microsoft Azure. This market requires a broad, official release which is either free or available at a reasonable cost like through a GPT plus membership.

These exact resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the question, and your suggestions are welcome in the comments.

All options in this market resolve NO as that month arrives until the anticipated model is broadly released and all remaining options then resolve YES.

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Does it count if it's called GPT-4z and it isn't actually any smarter than the original GPT-4?

@jim I would bet against that happening.

@ManifoldAI OK didn't read criteria properly the first time. looks good to me.

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