Market maker on X challenging Pinker to a debate on this very issue in defense of EAs who are now the boogeymen of this administration 👀

Scott Alexander (@slatestarcodex) on X

nytimes.com

nytimes.com

Okay, I've changed my mind

How does this make sense?

@ProjectVictory substantially different resolution criteria

@DavidHiggs also abortion is not a top 3 political issue?

RESOLVE THE MARKET.

@SimranRahman But it's not 2028 yet.

@SimranRahman it’s always Bernie. Maybe this will count when someone else starts talking about it.

@MachiNi Why? Something can be important now and not important in 2028 so popularity now can't logically be used for resolution

@BodeyBaker Right. For example, I'm either pregnant or I'm not. Let's say I'm pregnant now, and I make a market asking if I'll be pregnant in 2028. Being pregnant now does not resolve my market.

@BodeyBaker you probably meant to respond to the first commenter because I agree. It shouldn’t resolve until early 2028.

@SimranRahman how does that even come close to being as big as abortion? Abortion is has millions of single-issue voters, AI has one politician talking about it (and it's Bernie Sanders, who I broadly agree with but whose opinions probably negatively correlate with the popularity of a particular topic)

@MachiNi Here You All Go. Bernie, Warren, Mamdani, Trump, Newsom to name a few. Abortion was the old cycle's issue. Havent seen any mention of it recently, but if you're arguing abortion is still bigger as the hot button issue let's see proof.

AI is the new primary issue for the upcoming cycle. EAs have been called out by name by the current administration on this issue! Crazy timeline.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/18/newsom-california-executive-order-ai-01083826

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-vows-ai-force-czar-development/

Trump vows to form "AI Force," says he won't allow slowdown of AI development

In a Truth Social post​, Mr. Trump called fears around artificial intelligence possibly becoming a superintelligence that could pose a threat to human existence a hoax.

Real quesiton, why do so many traders keep their mana locked up somewhere that won't resolve in years? and they think likely won't fluctuate bc no one else wants to lock up their mana?

@Chimpey previous versions of the loan system made it quite attractive to lock up your mana and then get it back in a loan and spend it again. To some extent it still applies to the current loan system but not as much.

@Chimpey also some people have more mana than they know what to do with!

@Chimpey Also sometime you want the market probability to be more reasonable.

@dionisos @Fion hmmm... that makes a lot of sense actually...if i made a long term market u think it'd get a lot of traders?

@Chimpey Probably not, I don't have statistics but I expect most markets to not get a lot of traders, and the market being long term doesn't make this impossible, but it is not helping.

I think you should still do it if you are interested in the market you want to create and there is no similar market.

@dionisos hmmm... ok then. thx for the help :)

@Chimpey i think i'll create one anyways. i think its pretty interesting. needa get the moola for liquidty first tho. I'll notify u when i make it :))))

@Chimpey Real question, why do you care about accumulating more of a fake number?

@BodeyBaker M has a life of its own. It wants to pool.