In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
1.7k
13k
5.5k
2028
46%
chance

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I'm actually starting to think that this one might be closer to a YES only because abortion might be less of an issue by then.

How does this resolve if the biggest political topic becomes aborting AI?

I'm confused by "at least as big a political issue as abortion" - it sounds like a bar to exceed, with abortion providing a lower bound for political divide.

Surely abortion is one of the most politically big topics, isn't it? There are hardly a few things that are more politically divisive.

Massively underpriced. See already strikes in entertainment and now that capabilities have advanced, the same crowd plus more are starting to develop strong disdain and even hatred for anything created by AI. I saw reaction to a gallery display of AI art on Twitter, plus audible boos at SXSW. Thats just art.

When it becomes a misiniformation and privacy concern then it will be a general public issue. It's just starting.

No need to intellectualize this. It's about the visceral emotional response AI is evoking from people, it will be an issue.

https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/sxsw-audiences-boo-videos-artificial-intelligence-ai-1235940454/

2 traders bought Ṁ1,100 YES

@SimranRahman I don't think artists on Twitter are a good source to extrapolate what normal people are going to think.

@SimranRahman Twitter is not real life. Here is real life.

@nikki @ShakedKoplewitz I can use Twitter to provide evidence while also knowing that it's obviously not representative of the current, real population...an objective and obvious fact doesn't need to be stated. ☺️

However, I hail from VC and I'm always searching for early indicators and signals, which is exactly what Twitter can provide. This market resolves in 2028. So again. What makes something an issue as big as abortion? Two things in my observation. 1) Evokes strong emotional response just like the issue of abortion does and/or 2) affects the day to day life of citizens (which I believe is the sentiment of Nikkis reply). Productivity gains from AI will affect the entire economy and job market— issue #3 in that graph. Not today (problem with that graph) but in future and starting today (my argument and spirit of this market). Here's a detailed analysis from the IMF stating the impacts of AI on the global economy since we're nitpicking on sources here. (IMF 01/2024)

Now please counter the actual content of the argument. 😇

I also network heavily in my city of business, a major metropolitan city of the US, Top 10 and the fastest growing by % population change in 2023. Every senior executive I speak with about AI has formed an opinion on it, as well as every citizen I've spoken to. It's rarely neutral, it's some form of positive or negative. Try it and report back here. I'm genuinely curious. This market focuses on political conversation which requires temperature testing with the opinions of the public either online or in person.

If you disagree with me, you are welcome to bet Mana and prove your conviction in your own opinions on what the conversation around AI will look like in 2028.

All the best 👍

bought Ṁ100 NO from 44% to 43%

@nikki I made a market based on Gallup's polling! It might be good for the people who are worried about the resolution of this market being subjective.

@SimranRahman to be explicit, I think it's a poor indicator here because this is a sort of issue that seems tailored to appeal to Twitter artist type (people who spend a lot of time online making money off selling art and building a personal brand) in a way that doesn't extrapolate to normal people (see also how Twitter artists care a lot more about things like how much streaming services pay musicians but that's never gone mainstream).

To the degree that normal people probably will worry more about AI stuff over time, that's probably more likely to be existential risk/gradual loss of control/actual large scale unemployment, which would start out being stated by different people using different attitudes.

@ShakedKoplewitz Thanks for clarifying your position and I can also clarify my full analogy/ reason I find this extreme emotional evocation compelling as evidence.

I was essentially drawing a parallel between the rhetoric of the extreme sides of those in the abortion debate (eg murder, lives/livelihood, etc list goes on). I am fully aware that most in the AI and in parallel the abortion discussion do not take extreme positions though they may have an opinion. But the fact that there are people on both sides that do, is what makes it a major issue. This strong polarization is what constitutes a political issue.

There are people in the abortion discussion who invoke God/religion as the pure and sole justification for their argument, there are people that invoke data from the ACLU to argue their position. There are people who are genuinely neutral on the topic. They are ALL part of the same political discussion when it comes to abortion.

Abortion is a major issue precisely because people exist that feel strongly about it, who are loud and take action to make and advocate for legislation either way for/against. My position is that if this emotional response criteria is met for any given issue and plus the impact to real life brought up above, you will have a major political issue. I believe AI will trigger enough of an emotional response and real life impact by 2028 that we will see clear polarization on the topic.

Thanks

bought Ṁ10 NO

@nikki Yeah, these people live in an echo chamber where everyone talks about AI all the time. Meanwhile, the average person goes to church and hasn't even tried ChatGPT.

@Snarflak AI is a small political issue now. I hold YES not because I see people concerned with AI now, but because I believe that a lot will change over the next 4 years that will make people concerned about AI-related issues.

@Snarflak @nikki

Church/religious center attendance vs ChatGPT usage. Echo chamber?

I don't particularly care to talk about state of religious attendance but your point on this being the "real" state of affairs and attempting to claim AI is an internet-only bubble is objectively false. Usage is only growing and as adoption increases across academia, industry, and government the issue will be at the forefront of the American mind. Cheers 😇

AI:

ChatGPT 1.7 Billion Visits

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/chatgpts-one-year-anniversary-how-the-viral-ai-chatbot-has-changed.html

Religion:

Weekly Attendance https://www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/how-many-weekly-attenders-are-there

@SimranRahman "My opinion is objectively true". Sure thing, buddy.

@Snarflak

If you can stand in front of graphs, charts, linked sources and my multiple replies addressing all raised claims

vs. your single statement with no background data ...

And call my statement the opinion...not much else to say! 💁‍♀️

@SimranRahman It's a betting site; why would I show my hand?

bought Ṁ25 YES

Kinda worried about this fairly subjective resolve lol

Lot's of big issues in people's lives aren't as political as abortion since there are no opposing sides.
There is no good path to AI becoming a big part of the tribal identity of any side right now.
Are republicans going to die for your GPU rack when the Dems attack? Vice versa?

@WieDan It seems to me that AI doesn't have a heavy presence in the public consciousness. Once it plays a bigger role in our lives, I could see something like the recent circulation of AI-generated explicit images of Taylor Swift being a flash point for tribalization.

@jks No conservative is gong to be pro AI porn. Both left and right will want to keep AI under control there is no issue here. The only power struggle is between tech west coast and old bureaucracy east coast. Big tech has no friends in the capitol.

@WieDan My simple prediction is that existing tribal lines we already see in tech will be magnified: leftists will be anti-AI, skeptical of the outcome of job displacement and concentrating power in "big tech", and conservatives will be pro-AI.

Have you seen the politics of Gemini? lol

I think one of the issues of manifold markets being such a lib echo chamber is that people here don't have the faintest clue what the mood among conservatives is.

Google, facebook, etc are 100% seen as the enemy. As I said big tech has no friends in the capitol.

(1) Collin Rugg op X: 'NEW: Josh Hawley goes off on Mark Zuckerberg and forces him to stand up, turn around and apologize to families who were impacted by child exploitation on META platforms. Humiliating. "You didn't take any action. You didn't fire anybody." "There's families of victims here… https://t.co/YqRfWRVSlk' / X (twitter.com)

@WieDan
> Google, facebook, etc are 100% seen as the enemy
That has nothing to do with AI. Sure, conservatives might channel some of their rage at big tech towards AI, but that's not the key issue there.

If you don't think attitude towards the companies developing AI have anything to do with political attitudes towards AI I can't help you.
Please bet the market up

@WieDan Facts!

More related questions