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AI Doom

Vox
The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity
Ensuring machine learning programs are aligned could be one of the biggest existential problems of our time.
Ṁ1k
P(Doom) - Dario Amodei
26
Ṁ1k
Ṁ520
P(Doom) - Emmett Shear
36
Ṁ520
Ṁ1k
P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio
40
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
44% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ2.1k
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
68% chance
Ṁ2.1k
Ṁ20k
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10% chance
Ṁ20k
Ṁ2.7k
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
NO
Ṁ2.7k
Ṁ1.7k
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
4% chance
Ṁ1.7k
Ṁ1.3k
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
25% chance
Ṁ1.3k
Ṁ1.4k
Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?
NO
Ṁ1.4k
Ṁ1k
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
3% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ3.3k
Will Superalignment succeed, according to Eliezer Yudkowsky?
NO
Ṁ3.3k
Ṁ2.2k
Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?
NO
Ṁ2.2k
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