AI Doom

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P(Doom) - Dario Amodei39

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P(Doom) - Emmett Shear36

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P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio42

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Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?30% chance

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By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?52% chance

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?53% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

#Mechanistic interpretability

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Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)35% chance

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By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?37% chance

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Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?22% chance

#Mechanistic interpretability

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Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?4% chance

MIT Technology Review

Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to

The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.

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Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?20% chance

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Will Superalignment succeed, according to Eliezer Yudkowsky?5% chance

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Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?42% chance

#Alignment Research Agendas

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