AI Doom

The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity

Ensuring machine learning programs are aligned could be one of the biggest existential problems of our time.

1k

P(Doom) - Dario Amodei21

520

P(Doom) - Emmett Shear36

1k

P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio34

1k

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?44% chance

2.1k

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?55% chance

20k

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?26% chance

2.7k

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)NO

1.7k

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?19% chance

1.3k

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?29% chance

1.4k

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?NO

MIT Technology Review

Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to

The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.

1k

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?5% chance

3.3k

Will Superalignment succeed, according to Eliezer Yudkowsky?NO

2.2k

Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?NO

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