P(Doom) - Dario Amodei

This market resolves to the next publicly stated "p(doom)" value from Anthropic co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei.

Note that there is no standardized definition of p(doom), so this market depends on Amodei's own framing when he next publicly gives a value.

During an interview in October of 2023, Amodei gave a p(doom) of 10-25%:

When Amodei next publicly states a specific number for his p(doom), this market resolves to the option containing that newly stated probability.

Stating a range of more than 15%, such as 2-50%, will not resolve this market. Stating a range of 15% or less will resolve this market to the midpoint of that range, so re-stating his p(doom) of 10-25% would resolve to 17.5%.

If Amodei does not publicly state a p(doom) before his death, this market resolves to his previously stated p(doom) of 10-25%.

Here are some other p(doom) values from notable people for context.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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