P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio

This market resolves to the next publicly stated "p(doom)" value from Turing Award winner Professor Yoshua Bengio. Note that there is no standardized definition of p(doom), so this market depends on Bengio's own framing when he next publicly gives a value.

In July of 2023, Bengio defined his p(doom) as a 20%:

Speaking with Background Briefing, Professor Bengio shared his p(doom), saying: “I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic.”

Professor Bengio arrived at the figure based on several inputs, including a 50 per cent probability that AI would reach human-level capabilities within a decade, and a greater than 50 per cent likelihood that AI or humans themselves would turn the technology against humanity at scale.

“I think that the chances that we will be able to hold off such attacks is good, but it’s not 100 per cent … maybe 50 per cent,” he says.

As a result, after almost 40 years of working to bring about more sophisticated AI, Yoshua Bengio has decided in recent months to push in the opposite direction, in an attempt to slow it down.

“Even if it was 0.1 per cent [chance of doom], I would be worried enough to say I’m going to devote the rest of my life to trying to prevent that from happening,” he says.

When Bengio next publicly states a specific number for p(doom) like he did in that interview, this market resolves to the option containing that newly stated probability. This includes if he confirms that his P(doom) is still 20%.

Stating a range of more than 15%, such as 2-50%, will not resolve this market. Stating a range of 15% or less will resolve this market to the midpoint of that range, so a stated p(doom) of 10%-25% would resolve to 17.5%.

If Yoshua Bengio does not publicly state a p(doom) before his death, this market resolves to his previously stated 20%.

Here are some other p(doom) values from notable people for context.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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