P(Doom) - Emmett Shear
7
88
520
2025
36
expected

This market resolves to the next publicly stated "p(doom)" value from Emmett Shear.

Note that there is no standardized definition of p(doom), so this market depends on Shear's own framing when he next publicly gives a value.

During an interview in June of 2023, Shear did not give a specific p(doom) but said that it could be as high as 50%:

When Shear next publicly states a specific number for his p(doom), this market resolves to the option containing that newly stated probability.

Stating a range of more than 15%, such as 2-50%, will not resolve this market. Stating a range of 15% or less will resolve this market to the midpoint of that range, so a stated p(doom) of 10-25% would resolve to 17.5%.

If Shear does not publicly state a p(doom) before his death, this market resolves N/A.

Here are some other p(doom) values from notable people for context.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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