If @EliezerYudkowsky believes Superalignment has succeeded in the goal of "solv[ing] the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years [i.e. by July 5th, 2027]", this market will resolve YES. If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem and Eliezer does not believe they have yet succeeded, this resolves NO.

Resolution will be based on Eliezer Yudkowsky's public communications (e.g. on the AI Alignment Forum or in the comments here). Resolution may be delayed after July 5th 2027 until Eliezer's belief about this is clear to me. May resolve to % if Eliezer so decides.