Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
48
248
950
2100
30%
chance
  • An attempted AI takeover

  • An AI system malfunctions

  • A single disaster or related ones, not just "every AI disaster over 50 years"

1T adjusted to inflation

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It has to be one single disaster, not an accumulation of incidents?

@JoshuaFosse Yes I guess so

bought Ṁ8 of YES

adding “1T adjusted to inflation” is a major change! I’m out.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

1T in 2100 might be a medium tech company going bust.

Is 2100 too far away? Should we do 2070

@NathanpmYoung How likely is it that you're going to be alive to judge in 2100 vs 2070?

@PipFoweraker I'd be more worried about Manifold. Presumably we can get an admin resolution if it matter and Manifold exists.

@EvanDaniel True - I was thinking more of the psychological satisfaction of being proved right while still alive