By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
193
441
2.1K
2029
52%
chance

Will be decided subjectively unless I see a poll on this

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sold Ṁ182 of NO

Climate change about to fall off hard

predicts NO

@Shai why?

predicts YES

@YoavTzfati Takes too long, the pace of AI change already makes it more impactful.

The level of rtardation to think “climate change” would wipe out humans should naturally lead to the next to last option on the list

predicts YES

weather and technology, two things that never change

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@Gigacasting climate change might not cause extinction that soon, but it would cause a huge depression and kill millions of people. manifold is full of AI doomers, 40% probability of AI doom but only 5% probability of other doom is crazy to me. that being said i think by the American population AI will be seen as a bigger risk

At least three of those can’t even occur

The AI thing is dumb

Basically act of God or Faucicide it is

predicts YES

By act of God do they mean the tsunami kind, or the pillar of fire from heaven kind?

@xyz I wanted to say the tsunami kind, but I'd imagine that an asteroid impact falls under this kind, and it's listed seperately, so... maybe they actually mean the pillar of fire kind?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

If at some point before 2028 more Americans are concerned about AI than climate, does this market resolve yes? Or is it about exactly the end of 2028?

@YoavTzfati Resolves exactly at end of 2028. I’m sure in the meantime some big event or other will get people worried about AI for a week. But I’m more interested in people’s general vibes rather than attitudes towards particular events

bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hBSSn33BZggfkqErj/new-survey-46-of-americans-are-concerned-about-extinction-69

46% are concerned about human extinction due to AI.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/340884-poll-39-percent-think-its-likely-climate-change-will-cause-human/amp/

39% think it’s likely climate change will cause human extinction

Cross-survey comparisons are awkward but possibly this is already true, and certainly seems likely to be true at some point between now and end of 2028.

How does this market resolve if we are extinct from AI by end of 2028? Seems like it should be YES, but N/A seems defensible too.

@MartinRandall Yeah, it’s unclear what “concerned” means to people in the above survey. I’d like to see a single survey that asks about both AI and climate change.

If we all go extinct by end of 2028, I’ll resolve this to N/A, since no one will be considering AI or climate change at all. I assume humanity would have at least a few seconds before then though, so in practice, the market would probably resolve YES.

predicts YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Too high. Arbitrage opportunity:

Has general US population ever acknowledged the risk of climate change?

predicts NO

@Zardoru A clear majority say the government should be doing more to combat it: https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/06/23/two-thirds-of-americans-think-government-should-do-more-on-climate/

I don't know what the opinions on the level of risk is.

Climate change and AI could be highly related though, right? If the amount of watts required to run an AGI is very high, then presumably the amount of carbon emissions will need to go up exponentially.

@PatrickDelaney I expect energy consumption from AGI to be a rounding error in the next five years. And technological developments in transportation, energy storage, and energy transmission will improve in the meantime to lower carbon emissions

@NathanNguyen Cool, you should make a bet based upon those assumptions then.

@PatrickDelaney Set up a market for it. I'm not gonna bet in my own market.

@NathanNguyen You could vote on the one I ran above as a proxy.

@PatrickDelaney I don’t think it’s a good proxy 🤷‍♂️

@NathanNguyen If you think AGI's power consumption will be a rounding error in the next five years, then that would imply the energy consumed by AGI will be considerably low, which means you might vote on the low side, depending upon what you mean by rounding error.

@PatrickDelaney I also think the carbon emissions of typewriters will be a rounding error. But I wouldn’t bet on how much energy it takes to produce a typewriter

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