House Speaker

Israel

Mystery Drones

Cabinet

CEO Shooter

Sora 

What Will Trump Do?

OpenAI

Bitcoin

Korea Martial Law

Ding v. Gukesh

Golden Globes

Glicked 🏟️🧹

2028 Election

AGI Timelines

Biden

Taylor Swift

Elon/Tesla

Sama Drama

AI Math

Nvidia

Twitter

ACX 2024 

One Piece

Music AI Race

Hard Forkasts

The hosts talk to new users in discord, answer their questions, and give them some free mana to place some bets.

'answer':9 'bet':21 'discord':8 'free':16 'give':13 'host':2 'mana':17 'new':5 'place':19 'question':11 'talk':3 'user':6

The hosts pick a market that doesn't have a lot of traders, ideally one created by a new user. The hosts and audience all research the question and bet on it live, and the new user gets a warm welcome to the site.

'audienc':24 'bet':30 'creat':16 'doesn':7 'get':38 'host':2,22 'ideal':14 'live':33 'lot':11 'market':5 'new':19,36 'one':15 'pick':3 'question':28 'research':26 'site':44 'trader':13 'user':20,37 'warm':40 'welcom':41

The hosts discuss the most popular/dramatic/hidden gem markets from the past week. They place bets as they discuss and debate whether those markets should be higher or lower.

'bet':15 'debat':20 'discuss':3,18 'gem':7 'higher':26 'host':2 'lower':28 'market':8,23 'past':11 'place':14 'popular/dramatic/hidden':6 'week':12 'whether':21

After discussing a large ongoing market, the hosts identify a "crux question" and create a new market for it on the live show's official manifold account. (Top traders on these crux questions win prizes and come on the show?)

'account':27 'come':37 'creat':14 'crux':11,32 'discuss':2 'host':8 'identifi':9 'larg':4 'live':22 'manifold':26 'market':6,17 'new':16 'offici':25 'ongo':5 'prize':35 'question':12,33 'show':23,40 'top':28 'trader':29 'win':34

Members of the audience come on the show to brag about their profits from the week, bemoan their losses, or share the ideas for improving Manifold. Audience members get mana for participating!

'audienc':4,27 'bemoan':17 'brag':10 'come':5 'get':29 'idea':23 'improv':25 'loss':19 'mana':30 'manifold':26 'member':1,28 'particip':32 'profit':13 'share':21 'show':8 'week':16

The hosts interview an experienced trader and ask them about the biggest wins and losses in their manifold history.

'ask':8 'biggest':12 'experienc':5 'histori':19 'host':2 'interview':3 'loss':15 'manifold':18 'trader':6 'win':13

The hosts compete in a forecasting/trivia game, and the audience bets live on who will win.

'audienc':10 'bet':11 'compet':3 'forecasting/trivia':6 'game':7 'host':2 'live':12 'win':16

The hosts interview a member of the manifold staff about new manifold features/plans, and ask them questions from the audience.

'ask':15 'audienc':20 'features/plans':13 'host':2 'interview':3 'manifold':8,12 'member':5 'new':11 'question':17 'staff':9

Interesting people (politics pundits, scientific experts, etc) are brought on as guests. They discuss whatever they are an expert in, and the hosts bring up markets related to what they are talking about

'bring':24 'brought':9 'discuss':14 'etc':7 'expert':6,19 'guest':12 'host':23 'interest':1 'market':26 'peopl':2 'polit':3 'pundit':4 'relat':27 'scientif':5 'talk':32 'whatev':15

Rapid fire questions, where the hosts (and audience) give their quick guesses to a few semi-randomly chosen questions.

'audienc':8 'chosen':19 'fire':2 'give':9 'guess':12 'host':6 'question':3,20 'quick':11 'random':18 'rapid':1 'semi':17 'semi-random':16

Audience suggestions: a market much like this one is set up before/during the show, with suggestions for what the hosts should do/talk about. Options resolve YES if the hosts decide to do it, NO if they decide not to, N/A otherwise

'audienc':1 'before/during':12 'decid':30,37 'do/talk':22 'host':20,29 'like':6 'market':4 'much':5 'n/a':40 'one':8 'option':24 'otherwis':41 'resolv':25 'set':10 'show':14 'suggest':2,16 'yes':26

Host/panel review a selection of markets and discuss what makes markets more successful/valuable vs other markets in terms of engagement with traders. (i.e. know/get to know your market)

'discuss':8 'engag':20 'host/panel':1 'i.e':23 'know':26 'know/get':24 'make':10 'market':6,11,16,28 'review':2 'select':4 'successful/valuable':13 'term':18 'trader':22 'vs':14

The hosts interview experienced traders, either on Manifold and beyond and learn about strategies that can help the audience improve their bets.

'audienc':19 'bet':22 'beyond':10 'either':6 'experienc':4 'help':17 'host':2 'improv':20 'interview':3 'learn':12 'manifold':8 'strategi':14 'trader':5

Get two whales and facilitate a large bet or two.

'bet':8 'facilit':5 'get':1 'larg':7 'two':2,10 'whale':3

The guest shares a reading recommendation

'guest':2 'read':5 'recommend':6 'share':3

The hosts hold a live AMA for the guest(s)

'ama':6 'guest':9 'hold':3 'host':2 'live':5

'altman':2 'ceo':5 'market':6 'reinstat':3 'sam':1

'dilemma':4 'iter':1 'market':5 'prison':2

[BINGO - At least five audience suggestions resolve YES]

'audienc':5 'bingo':1 'five':4 'least':3 'resolv':7 'suggest':6 'yes':8

Pick a market from https://manifold.markets/browse?s=random and have Isaac bet on it, explaining his reasoning and doing live research

'/browse?s=random':7 'bet':11 'explain':14 'isaac':10 'live':19 'manifold.markets':6 'manifold.markets/browse?s=random':5 'market':3 'pick':1 'reason':16 'research':20

Finally resolve my "eyes closed" market https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-cf38c1d1a594

'/isaacking/will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-cf38c1d1a594':9 'close':5 'eye':4 'final':1 'manifold.markets':8 'manifold.markets/isaacking/will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-cf38c1d1a594':7 'market':6 'resolv':2

Discuss the resolver uncertainty problem. 

'discuss':1 'problem':5 'resolv':3 'uncertainti':4

"What is the least likely thing that will happen in January 2024?" https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/what-is-the-least-likely-thing-that-bab7616ec11a

'/isaacking/what-is-the-least-likely-thing-that-bab7616ec11a':15 '2024':12 'happen':9 'januari':11 'least':4 'like':5 'manifold.markets':14 'manifold.markets/isaacking/what-is-the-least-likely-thing-that-bab7616ec11a':13 'thing':6

Long term versus short term question adjustments

'adjust':7 'long':1 'question':6 'short':4 'term':2,5 'versus':3

Tips for how to make good questions that people will bet in

'bet':11 'good':6 'make':5 'peopl':9 'question':7 'tip':1

Real money vs fake money prediction markets

'fake':4 'market':7 'money':2,5 'predict':6 'real':1 'vs':3

betting on your own markets - advantages and drawbacks

'advantag':6 'bet':1 'drawback':8 'market':5

The fact that the @Joshua just entered the top-ten of the profit leaderboard, congrats!

'congrat':16 'enter':7 'fact':2 'joshua':5 'leaderboard':15 'profit':14 'ten':11 'top':10 'top-ten':9

Why do you think Biden's nomination is priced so much higher on Manifold than other prediction markets?

'biden':5 'higher':12 'manifold':14 'market':18 'much':11 'nomin':7 'predict':17 'price':9 'think':4

'good':5 'make':2 'manifold':6 'podcast':7

[BINGO: 5 Audience-Submitted suggestions resolve yes]

'5':2 'audienc':4 'audience-submit':3 'bingo':1 'resolv':7 'submit':5 'suggest':6 'yes':8

Why was everyone on Manifold so wrong about the TIME person of the year?

'everyon':3 'manifold':5 'person':11 'time':10 'wrong':7 'year':14

Why was everyone on Manifold so much more right about the TIME person of the year, compared to real money prediction markets (Kalshi and Polymarket)?

'compar':17 'everyon':3 'kalshi':23 'manifold':5 'market':22 'money':20 'much':7 'person':13 'polymarket':25 'predict':21 'real':19 'right':9 'time':12 'year':16

What is the "Manifold Market of the Year"? 

What changes has Manifold made this year that you enjoyed the most/least?

'chang':2 'enjoy':10 'made':5 'manifold':4 'most/least':12 'year':7

Conflux's thoughts on @galen's PHD Thesis

'conflux':1 'galen':5 'phd':7 'thesi':8 'thought':3

Manifold is an EA-backed shitcoin/crypto grift 2.0?
(per Beff, whose first capital came from an NFT side project)

'2.0':9 'back':6 'beff':11 'came':15 'capit':14 'ea':5 'ea-back':4 'first':13 'grift':8 'manifold':1 'nft':18 'per':10 'project':20 'shitcoin/crypto':7 'side':19 'whose':12

Writing a paragraph of erotic fiction based on Manifold: https://manifold.markets/Mirek/write-the-first-paragraph-of-the-er

'/mirek/write-the-first-paragraph-of-the-er':12 'base':7 'erot':5 'fiction':6 'manifold':9 'manifold.markets':11 'manifold.markets/mirek/write-the-first-paragraph-of-the-er':10 'paragraph':3 'write':1

Why the San Francisco Bay Area is such an amazing and/or terrible place to live in

'amaz':10 'and/or':11 'area':6 'bay':5 'francisco':4 'live':15 'place':13 'san':3 'terribl':12

Was Manifold wrong about POTY, or was it simply that an unlikely thing happened?

'happen':14 'manifold':2 'poti':5 'simpli':9 'thing':13 'unlik':12 'wrong':3

Is the Tumbles Financial System too big to fail, or is collapse imminent? Will there be bailouts? https://manifold.markets/dashboard/tumbles-financial-system

'/dashboard/tumbles-financial-system':20 'bailout':17 'big':7 'collaps':12 'fail':9 'financi':4 'immin':13 'manifold.markets':19 'manifold.markets/dashboard/tumbles-financial-system':18 'system':5 'tumbl':3

the ongoing debate/conversation about TS as PotY and why it was such an unbelievable outcome for so many bettors 

'bettor':19 'debate/conversation':3 'mani':18 'ongo':2 'outcom':15 'poti':7 'ts':5 'unbeliev':14

Which public figures are the most likely to tweet the word "rationalussy"?

'figur':3 'like':7 'public':2 'rationalussi':12 'tweet':9 'word':11

Manifold things you wish you'd known sooner (or tips/practical info/strategy for newer traders)

'd':6 'info/strategy':11 'known':7 'manifold':1 'newer':13 'sooner':8 'thing':2 'tips/practical':10 'trader':14 'wish':4

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-this-post-appear-on-the-screen

'/strutheo/will-this-post-appear-on-the-screen':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/strutheo/will-this-post-appear-on-the-screen':1

Why everyone on Manifold was so wrong about the Manifold's choice Person of the Year

'choic':12 'everyon':2 'manifold':4,10 'person':13 'wrong':7 'year':16

https://manifold.markets/Yuna/will-manifold-either-disallow-takin

'/yuna/will-manifold-either-disallow-takin':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/yuna/will-manifold-either-disallow-takin':1

Rationalussy. Obamna. Despacito. Gangam Style.

'despacito':3 'gangam':4 'obamna':2 'rationalussi':1 'style':5

A prize for our favorite submission in an episode's topic suggestion market

'episod':9 'favorit':5 'market':13 'prize':2 'submiss':6 'suggest':12 'topic':11

A prize for our favorite submission to this market

'favorit':5 'market':9 'prize':2 'submiss':6

A prize for a random audience member selected by lottery

'audienc':6 'lotteri':10 'member':7 'prize':2 'random':5 'select':8

A prize split between every audience member who attends the first three episodes

'attend':9 'audienc':6 'episod':13 'everi':5 'first':11 'member':7 'prize':2 'split':3 'three':12

A prize for an audience member who creates a market related to the show/the topic being discussed and posts it in chat during the show

'audienc':5 'chat':22 'creat':8 'discuss':17 'market':10 'member':6 'post':19 'prize':2 'relat':11 'show':25 'show/the':14 'topic':15

A prize for an audience member who posts a great joke in chat during the show

'audienc':5 'chat':13 'great':10 'joke':11 'member':6 'post':8 'prize':2 'show':16

A  prize for an audience member who shares very useful information about a market in chat during the show

'audienc':5 'chat':16 'inform':11 'market':14 'member':6 'prize':2 'share':8 'show':19 'use':10

A prize for someone who messages us a great, specific question to ask a guest

'ask':13 'great':9 'guest':15 'messag':6 'prize':2 'question':11 'someon':4 'specif':10 'us':7

A prize for the person voted as the winner of an officially organized/moderated debate

'debat':14 'offici':12 'organized/moderated':13 'person':5 'prize':2 'vote':6 'winner':9

'billington':2 'chris':1 'chrisjbillington':3

Manifold: Live!