Who will appear on "Manifold: Live!", our weekly show for the Manifold Community Fund initiative?
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1.9K
10K
resolved Feb 16
Resolved
YES
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YES
NC Young ( @NcyRocks )
Resolved
YES
Resolved
YES
Resolved
YES
Chris Billington (@chrisjbillington)
Resolved
YES
Resolved
YES
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YES
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YES
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YES
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YES
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YES
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YES
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YES
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YES
@shankypanky (Stefanie)
Resolved
YES
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YES
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YES
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N/A
jack

Do you like Manifold? Do you like live shows? If so, then I've got good news!

@NcyRocks and I are going to be running a weekly live stream in the Discord called Manifold: Live!

Any name submitted to this market will resolve yes if that person appears on our live show any time before market close, on Valentine's Day 2024.

Feel free to submit yourself or anyone you think would be a good guest! If someone would like to withdraw their name from consideration they can let me know and I'll N/A their name. I may also N/A any names at my discretion.

If you want to get a sense of what kind of stuff we'll do on the show, check out the market we have for segments!

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

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@SG
bought Ṁ1,000 @SG YES

resolves YES

@Ziddletwix

+ @mattyb Oscar market episode 🌟

@shankypanky (Stefanie)
bought Ṁ1,000 @shankypanky (Stefanie) YES

Resolves YES

reposted

We're doing an episode Sunday at 1 PM with @mattyb !

bought Ṁ10 of @Austin YES

I'm going to be in the Bay for the Bet on Love show in a month!

Been talking to @SG about doing a Bet on Love related pregame and/or postgame show, though all the details are still TBD. @NcyRocks unfortunately has a wedding on the very day of the dating show though 😭

Open to suggestions on good dating show related guests, particularly anyone who's in SF!

bought Ṁ2 of @jim YES

The show has been monopolised by LK-99 NO holders, who use their position to slander YES holders as irrational (while having no push-back against their own irrationality!) As one of the biggest YES holders I nominate myself to come on the show to represent the rational aspect of the YES side, and to push back against the irrational aspect of the NO side.

@jim If you have a serious case to be made for yes I'd be happy to second you. If all you can do is strawmanning and ad hominem attacks, ehh...

@RobertCousineau I have no interest in straw man attacks, other than perhaps the addressing of them.

@jim wonderful - care to provide a overview of the arguments you'd make then?

@RobertCousineau depends on format of the debate and opponent - but I'm writing up some notes atm

@jim I was just imagining what you'd (hypothetically) say if mLive had you on as a guest next week.

bought Ṁ5 of @jim YES

@RobertCousineau I'm sorry but I do not deal well with open-ended hypotheticals. But some things I might talk about are Shinsung Delta Tech and taking the outside view, why our updated probability should be above the base-rate, the recent work from Chinese labs, and the arguments made by ernie, marcus, and chris billington.

@jim

scratch that - case sensitive mix-up 🙃

Got everyone confirmed for show today at 2 PM PT! See y'all then.

New show next Sunday with two of the GOATs:

Wait do I just need to talk for this to resolve YES? I thought I had to be invited

bought Ṁ200 @Domer YES
@MarcusAbramovitch

Marcus is going to be our surprise guest in today's episode at 2PM Pacific! We're hoping to facilitate some large bets! Here's the episode market:

Episode 3 market!

Episode 2 starting in 20 min or so!

Next episode is sunday at 2 PT with @Conflux!

Give me your spiciest politics and podcast questions.

boughtṀ30@Conflux NO

@chrisjbillington what happened?

bought Ṁ30 of @Conflux NO

@TheBayesian I just bet NO on everything - there's not that many weeks until Valentines day!

ah!