Do you like Manifold? Do you like live shows? If so, then I've got good news!
@NcyRocks and I are going to be running a weekly live stream in the Discord called Manifold: Live!
Any name submitted to this market will resolve yes if that person appears on our live show any time before market close, on Valentine's Day 2024.
Feel free to submit yourself or anyone you think would be a good guest! If someone would like to withdraw their name from consideration they can let me know and I'll N/A their name. I may also N/A any names at my discretion.
If you want to get a sense of what kind of stuff we'll do on the show, check out the market we have for segments!
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,460 | |
| 2 | Ṁ694 | |
| 3 | Ṁ516 | |
| 4 | Ṁ323 | |
| 5 | Ṁ197 |
I'm going to be in the Bay for the Bet on Love show in a month!
Been talking to @SG about doing a Bet on Love related pregame and/or postgame show, though all the details are still TBD. @NcyRocks unfortunately has a wedding on the very day of the dating show though 😭
Open to suggestions on good dating show related guests, particularly anyone who's in SF!
The show has been monopolised by LK-99 NO holders, who use their position to slander YES holders as irrational (while having no push-back against their own irrationality!) As one of the biggest YES holders I nominate myself to come on the show to represent the rational aspect of the YES side, and to push back against the irrational aspect of the NO side.
@jim If you have a serious case to be made for yes I'd be happy to second you. If all you can do is strawmanning and ad hominem attacks, ehh...
@RobertCousineau I have no interest in straw man attacks, other than perhaps the addressing of them.
@RobertCousineau I'm sorry but I do not deal well with open-ended hypotheticals. But some things I might talk about are Shinsung Delta Tech and taking the outside view, why our updated probability should be above the base-rate, the recent work from Chinese labs, and the arguments made by ernie, marcus, and chris billington.
scratch that - case sensitive mix-up 🙃
@TheBayesian I just bet NO on everything - there's not that many weeks until Valentines day!