Manifold Live's Episode 2 will air live Sunday afternoon 12/10 at 2 Pacific with special guest @Conflux !
Our main agenda items are discussion political markets on manifold, as well as the general concept of manifold shows since Conflux is the creator of the Market Manipulation Podcast. But you can submit other things to discuss in this market! If we discuss something submitted to this market, I'll resolve that option to yes!
Audience Prizes:
500 mana to the best suggestion which resolves Yes
500 mana to the best suggestion that resolves No
Arbitarary other prizes for good audience-ing
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You can watch the show as it airs, and bet on this market and others as you see topics come up!
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The concept of manifold awards came up in the show, and got me thinking about what would be good award categories. Here's a market!
A much bigger upset (100× bigger based on probability) than TIME PotY. Though the reason everyone was wrong is pretty obvious- it's because it was manipulated.
@PlasmaBallin Yeah, I don't think the outcome is super surprising if you listened to the last episode ... we might cover it though, continuity...
I can see how this may seem poorly worded (and I admit I missed the last ep), but hear me out: even in the past week there was a ton of discourse from a ton of people here about how invalid Swift was as a contender and how impossible it was that she would be the PotY. There's a definite change in sentiment since the announcement (imagine that) - I get it if it doesn't land as it would be more retrospective/observational. But the anti-Swift rhetoric was strong, even if the people on the last pod thought she was a shoo-in.
@shankypanky One potential reason could be that it's the first time an entertainer has been the sole Person of the Year. There were previous times (2005 and 2017, where Taylor Swift was even on the cover as part of the group) where entertainers were recognized, but the Person of the Year was never just one entertainer. And even when entertainers were recognized, it was for something other than entertainment (philanthropy and speaking out about sexual harassment). So Taylor Swift becoming Person of the Year due to the cultural impact of her tour is actually unprecedented.
Perhaps, but imo a large part of the disconnect here was amongst those who only considered her "an entertainer" (or thought about swifties, albums, etc). A massive amount of news that crossed my path this year was more about economics: effect on GDP, positive impacts on small or local businesses around the time of her concerts (there was a locally-owned bead shop in Seattle that was so overrun with business before her shows here that they couldn't keep up with purchases/orders?), jersey sales, etc. She's certainly an entertainer but my argument was always that her music etc almost seems like an afterthought in a lot of conversations so it's definitely in line with what you're saying, perhaps in a more novel or nuanced way.
That said, I know that's not purely how Time ended up framing it of course. I think probably more than most (any?) entertainers, her business acumen has been the lede for non-pop culture media outlets.
with that I'll stop - I've said/considered more about TS in recent weeks than I have in my entire life 😅
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
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Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?