Posts
Active 2 hours ago
Folded, Month Two
🎴 Introducing: FOLDED
Manifold’s first large-scale social experiment & art project
A test of patience. A battle of routine. A war of attrition.
Join the experiment. Win the prize.
💰 12,000+ mana up for grabs -- and the prize pool is growing!
WHAT IS FOLDED?
FOLDED is a minimalist game with a single rule:
🕛 Check in once per day. Or be eliminated.
It sounds simple, but there’s a catch - it won’t stay that way.
🗓️ DAILY CHECK-IN
You must visit the check-in page once per day before midnight UTC.
Miss a day? You’re out. No second chances.
❌ ELIMINATION
Players who don’t check in are instantly eliminated.
Each day, the pool gets smaller. The tension rises.
💸 ENTRY FEE
To enter, send 2,000 mana to the prize pool via Managram.
Think of it as your ticket to the endurance games.
🏆 WINNER TAKES ALL
The last player standing takes everything.
Every mana from every eliminated player goes to the final survivor.
🔒 DIFFICULTY
It will become harder to check in over time.
The interface may evolve. The rules might twist.
Stay alert. Adapt. Survive.
HOW TO JOIN
Step 1: Pay your entry fee (CLOSED)
Managram 2,000 mana:
👉 https://manifold.markets/Bandors?tab=payments&a=2000
Step 2: Make your FOLDED account
No email required. Just your manafold username.
👉 https://folded-three.vercel.app/
Is this a game? An art piece? A psychological experiment?
Yes.
[image]
Active 2 days ago
Leagues market creator updates
1) Profits and losses from trading on your own markets no longer count towards your league's earnings. This was to reduce the number of people winning their leagues by creating a new market with significant liquidity and correcting the probability from the initial 50%.
2) Unique trader bonuses are back for leagues! Any unique trader bonuses gained from a new trader betting on your market since the season start date will count. However, to keep things fair, we will check if the market was created within the last 31 days of the bonus and only count those that are. This keeps market creation more in line with the rules of trades having to be within the given month; however, it doesn't create weird incentives of waiting to create your market.
Active 3 days ago
FOLDED Corruption
I entered FOLDED, a game pitched as a large scale social experiment and art project hosted by @Bandors, with excitement and curiosity. A minimalist concept: check in once per day or be eliminated. Sounds simple, fair, and like a fun endurance challenge, right?
Well, that illusion did not last long.
One player, @retr0id, has been exploiting the system using scripts to check in automatically, bypassing the very premise of human endurance and commitment the game supposedly tests. That alone bends the spirit of the game. But it gets worse.
As a protest, I made my password public, a form of self sabotage and social experiment in itself to test the communities ethics. In response, @retr0id took control of my account, logging in and out every 30 seconds to sabotage my ability to check in. I had to set up a defense system just to stop getting kicked off my own session, ridiculous for something that is supposedly about routine and patience.
I reported this harassment to the host. The response?
Shenanigans are valid and encouraged
So automated check ins and harassment via account hijacking are valid. But here is the kicker: voicing protest in the comments was considered unacceptable. For speaking out, I was blocked by the host. I can still play, technically, but I cannot comment or communicate, silenced without recourse.
To make matters worse, I had thousands of mana on the line, with bonus prizes promised for finishing 10th, 5th, 3rd, and of course for winning. Entry alone cost 2000 mana, a substantial fee by Manifold standards. When I asked @Bandors to reset my password and even offered 50 mana for the trouble, I was told it was too hard to change. A simple password reset in a game about endurance, too hard.
FOLDED has devolved from a game of patience into a tech savvy popularity contest where
Coding trumps commitment
Harassment is brushed off as shenanigans
And dissent gets you shadowbanned
If this is performance art, then the message is clear
Cheat smart. Stay quiet. Do not challenge power.
If this is a psychological experiment, then congratulations, you have recreated 1984. The winner will not be the most disciplined, but the one most willing to manipulate the system unchecked.
If that is the art you want to create, fine
But do not pretend it is still a game.
Active 2 months ago
No more gif avatars, they're too distracting, sorry!
You'll see just a generic gray user icon now instead.
Active 11 days ago
I am the president. I am @realDonaldTrump.
You know, they said it couldn’t be done. They said we couldn’t turn things around. But we did. We did it before, and we’re going to do it again — bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.
We had the greatest economy in the history of the world. Everyone was winning — jobs were up, taxes were down, the border was secure, and America was respected again. Countries all over the world respected us. They didn’t laugh at us. They didn’t take advantage of us. We made great deals. Tremendous deals.
Then — disaster. Total disaster. Crooked politicians, weak leadership, chaos at the border, inflation like we’ve never seen before. Energy prices through the roof. Crime in our cities. They don’t know what they’re doing. Or maybe they do — maybe it’s on purpose.
But we’re not going to let them destroy this country. We’re bringing it back.
We’re going to drill, baby, drill. We’re going to bring manufacturing home. We’re going to protect our farmers, our truckers, our incredible police, and our beautiful, wonderful veterans — the best people anywhere in the world.
We will stop the invasion at the southern border. We will end the crime wave. We will defend your Second Amendment, your First Amendment — all of them. We will stand up to China, we will bring jobs back from China, and we will put America First. Always.
[image]
Active 8 days ago
Manifold Game Show Idea
I want to make a sort of game show here on Manifold where 2 contestants and the game show host each put up a blind into a bounty market pot.
The 2 contestants are put into a Prisoners' Dilemma situation where they can either share the pot 50-50, or try to steal it all. If they both try to steal, the host gets the pot.
Contestants would be accepted on to the show if they have a similar RISK rating, using the @crowlsyong RISK Credit Score system as an ELO rating.
A market is made for each contestant, allowing the public to bet on if they will share the pot, steal it, or walk away and forfeit it (ie take no action by the deadline).
Contestants are encouraged to make backroom deals with anybody from the public to encourage manipulation on those markets. Or, they can bluff about making back room deals. Who's to say?
Who thinks this would be a bad idea?
Active a month ago
Pure spam page
https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/what-youtube-channel-will-have-the This page has more spam than content
[link preview]
Active 3 months ago
Handling markets while the creator deliberates
Goal: Discussion
What's the best thing for a creator to do while they deliberate something about their market? How can the site help them do this while maintaining a fair trading environment?
Application
Any time a creator is faced with making a choice about their market. It can be: choosing whether to resolve it, whether something 'counts' in the market, tweaks to the rules, or dealing with surprising things that are not in the criteria.
Problem
If the creator leaves trading open while they are unsure how to rule, traders often start trading on "What will the creator decide" rather than "What will happen in the future". This type of trading can sometimes eclipse trading on the actual question at hand, and it can also influence the creator's decision-making process.
Current options
There are several strategies creators have used over the years, they seem to all have some upside and some downside.
Leave trading open: Make multiple comments and be open about your thought process. Traders respond to every comment. You do get the benefit of instant response to your ideas, but traders may feel misled if your initial comments do not line up with your final decision. The most common pitfall is creators frequently issue contradictory clarifications.
Leave trading open but don't comment: Just let everyone battle it out while you deliberate, and don't post about it until you've come to a decision. This prevents the creator from making multiple contradictory responses, but can leave traders just as upset if the final ruling is not in line with the way they read the criteria. For "Will X happen before Y"-type markets, if the creator does not respond to questions about whether event Z 'counts', the traders often eventually decide that no, Z did not count, even if the creator never issued a ruling about it.
Trade on it yourself: Sometimes creators who do trade on their own markets start trading when things are in question. Maybe that reveals their own thoughts?
Close trading pending decision: It is not obvious to a new creator, but they have the power to close trading at any time using the same window where they can change the closing time. By closing trading before initiating discussion, the creator can avoid disgruntled traders who were influenced by thinking-in-progress. There are some downsides: Reopening the market is tricky because there is often a price delta pre- and post-closing. Who gets to 'steal' that liquidity? What if the creator is not around fast enough to close trading and a bunch of people already made trades about "What will the creator decide"? There is also an awkward interplay with league scoring here once every month.
Discussion topic
So, is this really a problem that needs solving? Is it okay how it is? Should we be looking at better options here?
Here are a few possible 'helps' for the situation, not necessarily solutions:
Better UI/guidance for creators in this situation -- the site could give them advice on avoiding common problems.
More sophisticated close/reopen mechanism -- there have been several suggestions for a more fair market reopening procedure, including 'auctions'
Provisional trading mode -- let people trade while the market is in limbo, or some new 'not-quite-closed' mode, but those trades will all be N/A'd if the creator decides that it resolved at the time they closed it earlier
Yank the liquidity -- maybe "closing a market" is actually just removing the creator's liquidity, but traders can still trade with limit orders. The creator is usually the one putting up all the juice, let them withdraw all but 1 mana or something, until they've ruled, and then let them put the market back live with fresh liquidity at the price they think it should be at. Traders can still trade in the interim if they wish.
Got any additional good ideas? Maybe you think this is a huge nothingburger and not a big deal. I don't think this is the #1 problem facing the site, but could be a fun discussion.Active 2 months ago
Peer to Peer Loans with @Quroe
This is a ledger of loans I have actively open. A Debt Note, if you will. Completed loans are removed, but loans paid back late or not at all will be memorialized. This is for my record keeping, but others may use it as public data or as a place to solicit loans to/from me if they wish.
Mana I'm loaning to other users:
@StepanBakhmarin - Loaned 1,000 mana. 1,046 mana due Sep 12, 2025. Naked loan, no policy.
Loans not honored:
@Spin - Loaned 2,000 mana. 3,000 mana was not paid back by June 28, 2025. Covered by C_100 RISK policy. Policy exercised. This debt security is now owned by RISK.
@Spin - Loaned 3,000 mana. 4,500 mana was not paid back by June 29, 2025. Covered by C_100 RISK policy. Policy exercised. This debt security is now owned by RISK.
Mana I'm being loaned from other users:
No outstanding loans.
Mana I'm holding in escrow for other users:
No outstanding holdings. 
Active 19 days ago
Courtesy of informing in advance and/or announcing withdrawal of significant liquidity?
I know for myself that being informed that liquidity has been withdrawn from a market affects my trading, so it would be a courtesy to be as aware as possible of actions in that regard, in my view. I can understand that there is no natural incentive to do so, but it would be nice. Certainly being above board about it would improve the taste in ones mouth, when encountering it. I know we do see the liquidity in the info screen, but nevertheless...
Active 2 days ago
Frequent Market Terms' Recommended Definitions
[WORK IN PROGRESS] You are more than welcome to contribute in the comments by asking for words to be added, or proposing definitions / workshopping current defs.
announces
(by an org / company / group, of a product): The entity, or an official representative or partner, makes an official public statement about the product, beyond vague references / hints / teasers.
(by an person, of a statement or fact): The person says the statement or fact in a publicly verifiable way. eg. "Will Elon Musk announce he doesn't plan to have more children in 2025"
releases
(by an entity, of a product): The entity makes the product accessible to members of the public in at least some region. This excludes a closed beta.
by [time]. Warning: If timezone differences may be material to the resolution, they must be specified.
by [specific moment]: The event must have happened before that specific moment. eg. by March 23, 11:59 PM ET. A useful way to specify a moment is to say "start of [date range]" (eg. by start of 2026) or "end of [date range]" (eg. by EOY 2025).
by [day]: We recommend not using this term (use "before" or "in" instead). Meaning must be inferred from likely intend of market creator. eg. usually, "by March 31" == "Before April" == "by April 1st"
by [year]: We recommend not using this term. The market's "close time" may indicate what the market creator intended.
before [date range]
The event must have happened before the start of the date range.
in [date range]
The event must happen between the start and end of the date range.
win
(Of a professional cycling race or stage): Defaults to the winner declared on the day at the podium celebration after the race. Later disqualification or alteration of the results (the same day, next day, or any time in the future) would not change the resolution.Active 3 months ago
Manifold discussion forum
Discuss anything non-TOS-violatory related to manifold hereActive 25 days ago
Share the most blatant lies you encountered on the platform
Sometimes people on Manifold are intentionally deceptive -- for fun or profit.
I'd love to see some of the best examples. Did you ever find someone who sold their soul by lying in a comment in order to profit on a market?
deceit, deception, lying, lie
Active 3 months ago
Happy Manifest 2025! 100K Mana Surprise
to celebrate im adding 1k mana subsidies to 100 of my bigger markets, glhfActive 3 months ago
Help me understand my mana loss aversion that makes me not bet on any markets than surefire ones.
Any advice so I'm not scared to arbitrage markets that can still lose me mana?Active 3 days ago
Quroe's Dead-Man Switch
If you're reading this, and I haven't traded or commented for 30 days, then I am dead or detained. I do not consent to prediction markets about this until day 21 of inactivity. After that, it would be an honor.
This description may be updated manually to adjust the numbers or to remand it entirely, all at my descretion.Active 3 months ago
Rudimentary code for Kelly criterion betting
#Program and variables
print("This is a Kelly-crietrion based bet calculator")
mana = float(input("Enter the amount of mana you have: "))
odds = float(input("Enter your estimation of the actual market probability between 0 to 1(average): "))
resolution = int(input("Enter what you think the market will resolve (which direction you are betting), 0 for no and 1 for yes: "))
profits = float(input("Enter the ratio of shares to mana when you bet the market up/down to your estimation as a decimal MINUS 1 (e.g. 100 mana for 500 shares is (500/100)-1 = 5-1 = 4): "))
leverage = float(input("Enter the leverage on Kelly (e.g. If you want to be conservative, you can bet half of Kelly suggestion, or if you want to be agressive, you can bet double): "))
#Validity-of-answers
if odds > 1 or odds < 0:
print("Invalid. Please try again")
elif mana < 0:
print("Invalid. Please try again")
elif profits < 0:
print("Invalid. Please try again")
#Calculation
if resolution == 1:
amount = (((profits*odds)-(1-odds))/profits)*mana*leverage
else:
amount = (((profits*(1-odds))-odds)/profits)*mana*leverage
print(f"You should bet {amount}")
Active 3 days ago
Manifold shark tank!
This is a creative version of shark tank but for manifold markets. It would work by someone pitching a market idea in the comments, and based upon the market idea, and how much people enjoy it, people in the comments can reply, and maybe invest in it. By investing, you would mangram them based on the deal, and the rest is up to the others. This should be a resource, and I will take it down if people get scammed. This is just for people who are new to manifold, to get financial help if others with more mana want to help. The deals would be like loans and interest can be applied.Active a month ago
Has anyone attempted to quantify the "worseness" of large MC markets with many 0% answers?
Markets like this:
@/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
Have loads of 0% answers or <1% answers. Have you attempted to quantify how that affects betting on the >1% answers? Can you quantify it? Seems like a fun exercise.Active 5 days ago
Mods, PLEASE install anti-spam measures
Spam is now popping up in my DMs. I am tired of seeing this. The message below seems to be a scam as well.
[image]I would also request a ban of this account.Active 5 days ago
A Manifold Game Show with an almost 40k prize pool!!
Awesome
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldChallenge/introducing-the-manifold-challenge
Active 19 days ago
jim order notification opt-in thread
Comment on this post to opt in (or out) of notifications for when jim places a "jim order" on a market. Jim orders are generally large limit orders at better-than-market prices. 
Active 2 months ago
My Two Ideas: An Open letter to Manifold Devs
Subject: Two Feature Suggestions to Improve Manifold
Hi Manifold team,
I'm a frequent user and a big fan of the platform — thanks for building such a unique and engaging experience.
I wanted to offer two feature suggestions that I think would make Manifold even more useful for strategic and active traders:
1. Conditional Buy Orders ("Buy when it hits X%")
Right now, limit orders don’t allow users to express conditional intent cleanly — if I try to “buy at 95%,” but the market is currently at 70%, the system sees that as above market price and fills the order immediately, which defeats the point. What’s really needed is a new kind of order that only triggers when the market reaches or exceeds a certain probability — effectively a “stop” or “conditional” order.
This would let users automate reactions to late-breaking information (e.g. betting once a candidate wins a primary or once a sports team is clearly winning), without having to camp on the page.
2. Options for Highly Liquid Markets
For markets with high liquidity (e.g., over 100,000 M), I’d love to see even basic options added — for example, “YES if the market is above 60% on July 1.” These kinds of instruments would allow for more nuanced bets, hedging, and leverage strategies — and they’d be especially fun in politics, crypto, or major sports events where the market dynamics are rich and evolving.
Thanks again for all the work you're doing — the platform has grown into something amazing, and I’m excited to see where you take it next.
Best,
Ryan (NG on Manifold)Active 3 months ago
What went down at Nash Pit Manifest 2025?
Post the deals you made and things you did here. Let's recap for the history books. 
Active a month ago
Introducing WHEN, a timeline of everything that's going to happen, according to Manifold
https://build.moi/@dcm31/when
It's a bit slow because right now it pulls in realtime market data every time.
Active 3 months ago
RISK - Limit Order App
tldr
I added a limit order app to the website here: https://risk.markets/limits. It was inspired by this section of the FAQ. Give it a whirl.
View the full v2.1.4 release notes here. RISK is open source. Create an issue if you find bugs.
Scroll down to see screenshots.
[image][image][image]Have a nice day.
And enjoy this picture of RICK the RISK raccoon relaxing after a long session of coding important internet tools.
[image]Active 24 days ago
Why are you using Manifold?
Can you identify any reasons you opened the Manifold website today? Or in general? Or ever? Curious how today's site members feel about this question.Active 2 days ago
Introducing: FOLDED [48,000+ mana prize pool] Manifold's first community social experiment/art project
🎴 Introducing: FOLDED
Manifold’s first large-scale social experiment & art project
A test of patience. A battle of routine. A war of attrition.
Join the experiment. Win the prize.
💰 12,000+ mana up for grabs -- and the prize pool is growing!
WHAT IS FOLDED?
FOLDED is a minimalist game with a single rule:
🕛 Check in once per day. Or be eliminated.
It sounds simple, but there’s a catch - it won’t stay that way.
🗓️ DAILY CHECK-IN
You must visit the check-in page once per day before midnight UTC.
Miss a day? You’re out. No second chances.
❌ ELIMINATION
Players who don’t check in are instantly eliminated.
Each day, the pool gets smaller. The tension rises.
💸 ENTRY FEE
To enter, send 2,000 mana to the prize pool via Managram.
Think of it as your ticket to the endurance games.
🏆 WINNER TAKES ALL
The last player standing takes everything.
Every mana from every eliminated player goes to the final survivor.
🔒 DIFFICULTY
It will become harder to check in over time.
The interface may evolve. The rules might twist.
Stay alert. Adapt. Survive.
HOW TO JOIN
Step 1: Pay your entry fee
Managram 2,000 mana:
👉 https://manifold.markets/Bandors?tab=payments&a=2000
Step 2: Make your FOLDED account
No email required. Just your manafold username.
👉 https://folded-three.vercel.app/
Is this a game? An art piece? A psychological experiment?
Yes.
[image]
Active 3 months ago
Governing Ourselves: A Blueprint for Manifold Futarchy
Governing Ourselves: A Blueprint for Manifold Futarchy
When @bens suggested a Manifold Government, many users worried that it would become an oligarchy, an elite club, old-timers and whales calling all the shots. Futarchy lets us avoid that.
A veteran's reputation doesn't carry more weight than a newcomer. Decisions get made based on what will actually produce the best outcomes, because everyone has financial incentives to identify the policies that will truly work.
How It Works First, we agree on our values (see roadmap below); what we want the government to achieve. For example: fair resolutions for subjective markets.
Imagine someone creates a market: "Will AI be friendly in 2026?" It has no resolution criteria and the creator is inactive. We don't argue endlessly in comments. Instead, we let the market guide us:
People propose resolution criteria, like:
Proposal 1: "Resolve based on a poll of 10 recognized AI safety researchers."
Proposal 2: "Resolve YES if no one is killed by AI in 2026."
We open prediction markets:
"What will the satisfaction score on resolution criteria be if we adopt Proposal 1?"
"What will the score be if we adopt Proposal 2?"
The proposal with the higher forecasted satisfaction wins. Everyone can bet; decisions are made based on expected value, not those with reputation, loud voices, account age or manna.
Tentative Roadmap
Legitimacy Vote (simple headcount): We need to decide whether to pursue this through Ben's constitutional convention or with our own poll asking "Should we explore Manifold futarchy governance?" Either path needs 60%+ support to proceed.
Values Survey (simple headcount): Multiple choice poll (with user additions open) on core values - any option getting 50%+ makes our official goals list. Anything at this stage (e.g. consolidating 2 goals into one) is voted on in a poll with a simple headcount.
Constitutional Convention: Elect 7-11 drafters via approval voting to write our constitution. The constitution should include 3 articles.
Our values as decided by stage 2
Inalienable rights (e.g. Active market creators retain full control of their markets - barring mod actions)
Mechanisms and Processes: Weighting of the Futarchy Meta-Index, when are polls created, minimum volume / liquidity on decision markets etc.
Public Drafting Period: 2-3 weeks of open drafting with community input
Constitution Ratification (simple headcount): Final up/down vote - needs 67% to pass
We elect The Stewards: our initial moderation team through a process the community defines, potentially using Futarchy forecasts about their future performance.
We build the basic infrastructure (posts page, dashboard, market templates) to run prediction markets on government decisions.
Example Goals (from @crowlsyong Constitution draft)
Establish fair resolution criteria for subjective markets
Provide advice for controversial markets
Manage a community treasury (liquidity, prizes, bailouts)
Award meaningful honors like Market of the Month
The Hybrid Model We combine quick community feedback with longer-term metrics to guide both immediate and lasting success:
Weekly Pulse: Each goal will have its own satisfaction metric and poll, so we can measure how well we're meeting specific objectives. For example, a poll on whether we're establishing fair resolution criteria for subjective markets. This provides fast community feedback.
Futarchy Meta-Index: A composite of (for example):
Community Satisfaction (40%)
Resolution Quality (20%)
Treasury Impact (20%)
Engagement Growth (20%)
Example Decision Process Every policy triggers prediction markets with fixed timing:
Proposal Window: First week of each month
Market Period: 1 week of betting on "What will the Futarchy Meta-Index be if we adopt this?" vs. "What will it be if we don't?"
Decision: Automatic implementation based on higher predicted outcome
Satisfaction Polling: 1 week after implementation
(Might not need the following due to the hardworking mods)
Enforcement: The Stewards A small team - The Stewards - keeps the system clean, preventing spam and low-quality proposals. But they're accountable too: if markets forecast that replacing them would improve our metrics, they're replaced automatically. No entrenched bureaucracy, just forecasts and outcomes.
This is governance designed for a people that believes in prediction markets. It rewards what works, not the landed gentry.
JOHN HANCOCKActive 2 months ago
Admins & mods can delete spam comments
Admins & mods can fully remove comments from market pages with the delete button. This should only be used for spam.
Note: this doesn't delete the comment from the database, it just filters it from the comments endpoint.
[image]Active 12 days ago
Coding Agent Capabilities at EOY 2026.
The length of programming tasks OpenAI's reasoning models have been capable of has been doubling every three months. This is likely to continue until the scaling of reasoning models hits the compute ceiling, likely sometime in 2026, at which point the doubling-time may revert to something just a little better than the previously-observed doubling time of 7 months.
The period of time between the release of o3 and when we expect the 3-month doubling period to end is 13 months. This entials 13/3 = 4 1/3 doublings, which would get us to 1935 minutes, or 32.25 hours. We can then expect one more double, to 64.5 hours.
So, by EOY 2026 I expect we'll have coding agents that can do the sorts of things that would take a skilled human engineer a week of total focus to accomplish. Should be fun!Active 2 months ago
Keep giving market creators more tools
Continuing in my theme of pleading for better support for question creators:
I know some of the meta around question creation and management is still stuck in the mindset from past iterations of the site. For example, we used to have creators 'assuming' that they would 'profit' (directly) from creating questions in the form of Manifold handouts for attracting bettors. Some of that has died out, but some of it still remains.
I think the site still has not fully internalized the degree of change we went through when we fell away from "keep subsidizing the AMM every time someone new trades" to "functionally all markets are fully subsidized by only the creator".
If I am subsidizing the market completely on my own, I should have immense power over the application of the liquidity in the market. The site should directly give me the tools I need to get the most out of my capital in managing questions. When Manifold supplied the majority of liquidity in most markets, this did not make as much sense, but I feel like creators are not given enough power to manage their markets right now.
Some summary points that could each be elaborated on request if they are not clear to others:
Creating a question should not 'feel' like 'spending' the full amount of liquidity chosen. The default assumption should be that you will only 'pay' the amount that your current/initial guess differs from the current consensus.
Creators should be directly encouraged to set up a market with their best guess of the probability to be as efficient as possible with liquidity.
'Paying' directly for a notification that news has happened is fine, but creators who specifically know that news is on the horizon should be able to opt out of paying for news updates by withdrawing liquidity before the expected news (and re-applying it afterward if appropriate).
Creators should probably be able to fine-tune their liquidity application without affecting their 'profit' on a market. If I know a market should be at 71%, I should be encouraged to set it up at 71%, but the site currently wants me to set it up at 50% then trade/profit by moving it to 71%, which wastes capital and generates questionable 'profit'.
I should be able to schedule the withdrawal (and possibly addition) of liquidity in advance.
"The market is open for trading but there is very little liquidity" is much better than "I am closing the market before an expected crux moment because the platform does not let me withdraw liquidity"
Reopening a market for trading after the above point is a miserable experience and feels close to fraud even if you warn traders in advance. Anything to help with this situation would be appreciated.
In more complex market types like multiple choice, I should have direct control over how much is in the pool on each option. Sometimes one option is very important while another is not important at all.Active 8 days ago
Petition to update Market Creator badge's wording.
Currently, the tag is Question Creator.
[image]I think we more commonly call it Market Creator, as a collective. Can we change the badge to match it? (This is a low priority request.)Active 3 months ago
Advice for job search?
The last time I worked was before the pandemic, during which I developed posturally hyperextended and (in 2022) bicameral schizophrenia. I have since been on Social Security disability, due to the extreme effect hyperextended schizophrenia had on me. I have now decided to go back into the labor force due to my currently limited options in life. I am on clozapine, which is a sedative that makes me less extraverted and I suspect reduces my conscientiousness.
I have an IQ of roughly 125 and a bachelor's degree in economics and reside in a major metropolitan area. I know a bit of JavaScript/Python. I had very little success in finding a job after college by posting online applications, but I did work a bit part time. I would like to find full time work by the end of the year.
I will give bounties of up to 150 mana for each piece of good advice.
You are free to ask questions, though I may not answer all of them.Active 2 months ago
New 'Followed' tab on the homepage to see markets in your followed topics
Try it out and let me know what you think!
[image]Do you miss the News tab? I replaced it with the new Followed tab. You can still access the same view by selecting 'Recently changed' from the filter dropdown.
[image]Active 3 months ago
Bounty for finding sub-$100 priced new Windows tablet (150 mana).
They existed a decade ago and were called WinBooks. The ROM sucked, but they were perfectly usable for python, emacs, git, etc. Even had a USB 2.0 port, which was extremely useful for file transfers and adding a physical keyboard. If they existed a decade ago, something like them should exist now.
Active 2 months ago
One Thousand 🔥
[image]As I reflect on the past 1,000 days, I just want to take a moment to thank the Manifold team and the people on this site for giving me something to look forward to coming back to every day. This site would be nothing without all of you, so from the bottom of my heart, thank you. Big shout out and so much appreciation also goes to @jim who made a massive donation and saved my ass when I needed it the most without asking for anything in return. You are truly a great man. I appreciate you all and here’s to another 1,000!
Active a month ago
Manifold launches MCP server for Claude integration
Hi guys! You can now ask Claude questions about Manifold, and it will query Manifold's endpoints on your behalf to find you info on users, trades, markets, etc.
It's read-only for now, but a great way for non-technical people to be able to leverage Manifold's API through an LLM agent.
You can check out the demo of how it works here: https://x.com/ManifoldMarkets/status/1953228858792264137
Custom connector URL: api.manifold.markets/v0/mcp (add this inside Claude settings)
Active 5 days ago
Idea for calibration scores
Manifold used to have personal calibration scores for each users. It was deemed unnecessary, because you can track how well a user is doing by their profit. But profit isn't a pure measure of accuracy, because some people use the site more than others, some people buy mana, etc.
But as some users have pointed out, the previous calibration metric, the Brier score, isn't much better. To demonstrate why, imagine a user, CoinFlipper, who doesn't even read the title/description of any market. He just looks at the current probability P. Using a random device, he will bet YES with a probability of P and will bet NO with a probability of 1 - P. Assuming that the markets on Manifold do not consistently overestimate or underestimate probabilities, CoinFlipper will eventually end up with a near-perfect Brier score. Even if Manifold does consistently overestimate/underestimate probabilities, it would be easy for CoinFlipper to measure that and factor it in to his random bets.
Obviously this is an issue, because you shouldn't be able to get a good calibration unless you're providing valuable information to the market. So here's a different calibration metric I thought of.
Start off by separating users into those who have positive profit and those who have negative profit. Let's call those with negative profit "Rank 0 (R0)" and positive profit "Rank 1 (R1)". People in R1 are the users who are providing valuable insight to Manifold.
Next, we need to compare how R1 users fare against each other. To do that, calculate each user's "R1 profit". The R1 profit is basically a user's weighted profit, with higher weights given to bets made against other R1 users. For example, let's say you bet 100M on YES, and win 1000M. If 20% of the NO shares were held by R1 users, then 1000M * 20% = 200M is added to your R1 profit. If 0% were R1 users, then nothing gets added to your R1 profit. The reasoning here is that you were betting against R0 users, so winning against them doesn't mean anything. The same calculations are applied if you make a loss (instead of a profit).
Finally, we look at the users who have a positive R1 profit. These users are now called R2 users. We repeat the entire measurement on R2 users to figure out who the R3 users are, and so on. Eventually we would have to stop at, say, R10, because there wouldn't be enough bets between R10 users to make a proper assessment.
You could show the user his/her calibration score as just the rank, or you could convert it to a percentile score.
I don't know if this metric is already well-known, but I think it would be cool if this was added to Manifold (though I imagine it would be a hassle to implement). Anyways, let me know if any of you have feedback.
Active 2 years ago
An Ads Experiment
I was interested in testing the Manifold ads feature to see what interest it could earn for a market. Moreover, I was interested in discovering more about the two markets I had posted. They were both topics that Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight considered important questions, and they both have large potential impacts on the United States. However, they are both relatively long term markets (one not resolving until the 2024 election, one not resolving until 2030) and had not received very much interaction.
The two markets are:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gabrielle/will-any-us-supreme-court-justice-r)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gabrielle/will-the-democrats-control-the-us-s)Both markets had been quite inactive, with the Senate market not having activity in the previous ten days and the Supreme Court market only having one non-bot trader in the previous twenty five days.
Before placing the ads, I added M$300 of subsidies to each and let the subsidies fully settle, to hopefully help add incentive to bet in the market. The Supreme Court market had 11 traders before adding subsidies, and gained 3 more traders after I added the subsidies but before I placed the ads. The Senate market had 13 traders before adding subsidies and gained no more between that and placing the ads.
I did not post the markets in any context other than the ads, so hopefully the activity was entirely from the ads and the subsidies.
On 2023-04-02, I placed ads for M$500 on each market. For this to be directly profitable for me, not even including the subsidies, both markets needed to get 50 additional traders. For it to be worth it from a knowledge perspective, I wanted to see at least 10 additional traders.
The ads were simply an embed of the market, without any additional text advertising the markets or stating why they were important or potentially profitable. While those would likely be good, I wanted to test how people interacted with very basic ads. For context, you can see the (now used up) ads at https://manifold.markets/post/ad-025e55df1bab and https://manifold.markets/post/ad-a64a5b9a4ee3.
I then waited until the ads had been completely viewed. I precomitted to publishing the results, regardless of the outcomes.
As of 2023-04-11, all of the ad views had been watched. For the Supreme Court market, that was 100 watches and 75 skips. For the Senate market, that was 100 watches and 76 skips.
The Supreme Court market had 26 total traders and the Senate market had 18 total traders, meaning 12 new traders and 5 new traders respectively compared to before I placed the ads. From my perspective, it was barely worthwhile for the Supreme Court market, getting slightly more than 10 additional traders, and it was not worthwhile for the Senate market.
Based on this, I would not use the ad system again in this way. Most importantly, I think that I need to add some call to action, saying either that it was particularly profitable (extra subsidies) or particularly important. It also seems like the ad system just doesn't encourage people to interact. Only five out of a hundred watches on the Senate market actually interacted, which is an abysmally low rate. An M$100 bounty would have been equally as efficient as the ads, and it would feel like a much fairer system. All of the users that watched and didn't interact or skipped wouldn't have had their time wasted, the users that watched and interacted would have gotten a much better reward, and it would have cost me the same.
Active 3 months ago
Microsoft MB-280 exam dumps vs Practice Tests: What Really Works?
The Microsoft MB-280 exam is taken by those learning Dynamics 365. Exam dumps are often searched to study real questions. These files are used to understand the exam style. Answers are reviewed to learn correct patterns. Key topics like case management and business rules are covered. Microsoft MB-280 Dumps should be used with official study guides. Practice tests are highly recommended. Latest versions are always preferred. Only trusted sources must be chosen. Wrong dumps can give poor results. Study time should be managed well. Regular reviews are helpful. For best results, updated dumps must be used. Prepbolt is trusted by many for real and reliable MB-280 preparation materials.Active 2 months ago
'Any status' is the new default search filter
This allows recently resolved, but still relevant, markets to stick to the top for a ~day.
[image]Active 3 months ago
Liquidity management in multiple choice
I'm having minor frustrations ~weekly right now with my question creation, here's why:
The primary reason I use the platform is to ask questions about the future and get answers. Many of the questions I ask are most conveniently formed in the multiple choice fashion -- where one answer among several will prevail.
I have recently started funding some multiple choice questions with considerable amounts of liquidity, more than most users seem to. That means I am willing to pay a lot of mana to get an answer to my question today. But sometimes these markets lose their predictive value after a period of time -- either no one knows the answer, or the answer becomes obvious.
After the market has given me a solid answer, I often wish to withdraw my liquidity. The valuable part is already done! I put up a lot of mana, people gave their best guesses.....now I don't want to offer such a reward because the next step is just "the answer is known".
I feel as though my hands are tied:
If I leave the market open until resolution, I may lose 50% or even more of my liquidity just on "news trading" -- I'm just paying people to tell me something I may have already known. This is really bad for me, especially when I put a lot of mana into a question's liquidity pool.
If I just close the market before the answer is known, and leave it closed until resolution, then everyone who was interested in the question needs to find a different place to trade in the meantime. That sucks. I'd be totally fine giving them a token liquidity pool to trade in during this time period. Making a second market is awkward, but does work.
If I close the market because I expect something valuable is imminent, then wish to reopen it after the crux moment occurs, I am in a very awkward position regarding updating the probabilities. If users had open limit orders that I buy into, I'll certainly be accused of misusing my power to open and close trading. Users may also be upset that I got "paper profit" by trading the main update after a market moved while it was closed.
What I really wish to do:
I want to be able to leave the market open, but withdraw my liquidity before key moments. I don't need to pay for news trading!
I want to be able to re-add liquidity again later if the question is interesting again.
I'm not really picky on exactly how this can work, but any of these possible solutions might help:
Let me remove my liquidity and re-add it later
Let me adjust the probabilities while the market is closed, in a way that won't affect my 'profit'
Just don't count 'self-profit' on a market that the creator closes and reopens.
My primary focus here is this: the entire point of the site is to answer peoples' burning questions. Many counterarguments to the things I've written above will start out something like "But users will abuse these to go up a leaderboard" -- I just don't care. Please help me answer my questions instead.Active 3 months ago
RISK - Limits Advanced Mode
Advanced features for the limits app. full release notes here
maybe i'll actually take a break after this one...
[image]🦝RISK
have a nice day my friends 💋
Active 2 months ago
Which specific sexual act pleasantly surprised you the most?
Want to create a market around this and need options.
ChatGPT gave me the following 10 options already:
Receiving oral while blindfolded
(Heightened senses, unexpected rhythms — a deep dive inward.)
Giving or receiving rimming (analingus)
(Surprisingly intimate, and often far more pleasurable than expected.)
Being tied up with silk or rope (Shibari-style light bondage)
(Not just kinky — it can feel artistic, meditative, and deeply sensual.)
Face-sitting — being sat on or doing the sitting
(Power, closeness, control — and maybe a little worship.)
Pegging or being pegged
(A shift in roles that opens unexpected doors — physically and emotionally.)
Cunnilingus with a vibrator involved
(Double stimulation can create a cascade of pleasure that surprises both partners.)
Mutual masturbation while holding eye contact
(So raw, so real — turns vulnerability into a shared high.)
Anal fingering with lots of lube and patience
(A lesson in trust, relaxation, and slow-building waves.)
Morning sex without rushing
(Sleepy bodies, slow movements, sunlight on skin — surprisingly profound.)
Public play (e.g., whispering fantasies or light touching under a table)
(The thrill of being almost seen — danger without real risk.)
Sex after an argument (make-up sex)
(When emotions melt into intensity — and something raw comes through.)
Deep eye-gazing during penetration
(Turns sex into a mirror — often more surprising than the act itself.)
Use of a strap-on by a female partner on a male partner
(Role reversal with power, tenderness, and mutual discovery.)
Light spanking with clear consent and build-up
(Pain and pleasure intertwined — surprisingly connective.)
Tantric stillness — entering and staying still, just breathing together
(It sounds like nothing. But it can feel like everything.)
Active a month ago
Prediction Market Thoughts part 3: The Holy Trinity of Bots
# Prediction Market Thoughts part 3: The Holy Trinity of Bots
I previously posted my thoughts on [backend](https://thequantummilkman.substack.com/p/my-thoughts-on-prediction-market) and [frontend](https://thequantummilkman.substack.com/p/my-thoughts-on-prediction-markets) features I'd like to see in prediction markets. This post will cover my thoughts on bots.
## The three types of bot participation in prediction markets
This post is partially inspired by Ozzie Gooen's post [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pLkFmWP3xmGG8YvjP/ai-for-resolving-forecasting-questions-an-early-exploration) on using bots to resolve questions. This is a cool post, but I feel like it's only one part of the puzzle. In my mind, there are three main types of bots that could be useful in prediction markets:
1. Question Creation Bots. These bots define resolution criteria for markets.
2. Trading Bots. Bots that make trades.
3. Question Resolution Bots. Bots that resolve questions, as Gooen discusses.
I feel strongly not just that each of these avenues for bots is underexplored, but that having all three types together in a single ecosystem realizes some important synergies:
* Scale: A theme of this blog is that [prediction markets are information-theoretical constructs with the ability to learn](https://thequantummilkman.substack.com/p/prediction-markets-eat-bayes). But learning requires lots of data to learn from, which means lots of markets and predictions. If we can have prediction market platform that functions end-to-end without human intervention, we can potentially get to a new level of scale.
* Inconsistency: Bot-generated market can be uninteresting or ambiguous, and bot resolutions can be incorrect, which makes these markets unappealing to humans. But bot traders don't care about this type of friction and can potentially learn to adjust to it better than humans can.
* Retrodiction: If an LLM has a data-cutoff date, we have good reason to believe a bot based on that LLM would not have any special advantage in predicting events after that date. Similarly, that any markets proposed by such a bot would not, by their existence on the platform, offer predictive power. This leads to the intriguing possiblity of letting a variety of such bots compete in a retrospective simulation of a prediction market over a period of years before the present, where the bots in the market are gradually fed news from news sources one date at a time.
To paint with a broad brush: Systems optimized for machines are different from systems optimized for humans, so we should explore what a reorientation of the prediction market ecosystem would look like as a radical change of design space.
<!-- This isn't to rule out human involvement in prediction platforms that orient towards bots - I think a human factor could help to keep things on track. Of course, there's also a balancing act to be played, since if the AI generated markets are too "sloppy", humans won't want to participate. Hopefully a happy medium can be reached where humans who don't mind LLM-speak can surface the best written markets for the rest of the community. -->
## Question Creation Bot Idea
Manifold already offers AI assistance in creating markets, but this usually starts with human prompting. What could a more autonomous market creation engine look like?
Most prediction markets pertain to events covered in the news. Consider a bot that works on something like the following prompts:
> You are a master prediction market creator. It is your job to create prediction markets that are interesting, have clear resolution criteria, and which are relevant to events in the news. Today, you will be creating a title for a prediction market based on the following news article.
>
> Insert news article here.
>
> Please brainstorm a future event that might or might not come to pass relevant to the content of this article. Here are some examples of the types of events you might track, based on previous articles
>
> Insert zero-shot examples
>
> All the information relevant to decide if the market has resolved yes or no should be publicly available by Date.
>
> Here is a title and date for a prospective prediction market.
>
> Title and date
>
> Now please write resolution criteria for the market you have just titled. The resolution should be clear and unambiguous: Anyone who is familiar with the events in question after the resolution date should be able to agree on how the market should resolve. Please also include a list of URL sources that could be accessed on the resolution date that could be used to resolve the market.
## Trading Bot Ideas
There is a nice post [here](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/contra-papers-claiming-superhuman-ai-forecasting) that criticizes [some](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.19379) [prior](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.18563) [literature](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tc_xY1NM-US4mZ4OpzxrpTudyo1W4KsE/view) [on AI forecasting](https://www.arxiv.org/pdf/2408.12036). As far as I can tell, the forecasting bots in these articles all work by a straightforward RAG pipeline where they request news articles from a search engine and then are prompted to base a prediction off of the articles.
The post highlights three things that the AIs have problems with \footnote{and a fourth way which just creates noise, namely data leakage}:
* The AI fails to find up-to-date information on the questions
* The AI finds only low-quality information on the questions
* The AI lacks high-quality quantitative reasoning
Given the architecture of the bots in question, these problems seem pretty unsurprising. But perhaps this leaves the door open for more sophisticated bots that work better.
In particular, I notice that many of the strategies I personally use to trade are amenable to replication by a bot, but probably not by a bot of the type described above. So consider this section my alpha dump.
### Using price data from other markets to inform trades
I very frequently use prices of other markets to help me determine trades. Sometimes this involves determining a price for a thinly traded market by taking averages of similar big markets. Other times it involves directly arbitraging markets against each other. Strategies of this type clearly fight back against the out-of-date-info and no-quantitative-info problems.
I could imagine both a "soft" form which identifies markets which are similar-but-not-the-same and analyzes correlations to keep the price vector close to its principal components, and a "hard" version which locates and rigorously vets identical markets or markets where an outcome on one implies an outcome on the other and arbitrages these directly.
<!--
Consider the following strategy for a bot.
1. Identify the top markets on the platform by volume/liquidity.
2. For each pair of markets, ask the LLM if they are correlated or anticorrelated.
3. Take some of the pairs that score highly on the volume/liquidity/LLM-assessed correlation.
4. Make a private 2x2 combinatorial market on the two markets.
5. Initialize the prices of the 2x2 market so that the marginal prices of the two markets as the main markets predict, and so the events are almost, but not totally, correlated. There should be a slight correlation in the direction the LLM suggests.
6. As time goes on, arbitrage the markets against each other.
My thesis for why this kind of bot should be profitable is as follows:
- If the 2x2 market is unlisted the bot should be the only one trading on it.
- If the 2x2 market were initialized to be totally correlated, it would be a nothingburger -->
### Identify markets that experience time decay
Many prediction markets can be expressed with titles of the form "Will X happen by Y date?". It does not seem too hard to get an LLM/regex to consistently identify markets of this form. We can then look at the price: If a market like this is unresolved and not at an extremely high price, it is usually a safe bet that "X" has not happened yet. The prices of such markets should then decay over time, but one often finds (at least on Manifold) markets that haven't been traded in a while. This suggests that a bot could trade on the information of the previous price.
A typical way to model this might be to assume that "X" events happen according to a Poisson process. We can then infer the rate of this process from the time and price of the last trade, and extrapolate what the price should be now. Of course, there is the risk that the event is more likely to happen on certain dates than others - perhaps this could also be dealt with by asking the LLM a question like, "which of these dates is the most likely for X to happen?" and using that to inform the model.
### Calibration Bots
In an [earlier post](https://thequantummilkman.substack.com/i/167659639/going-meta-why-predict-rather-than-aggregate) I advocated avoiding calibration analysis in favor of analysis of particular trading strategies. Perhaps the synthesis of this is: We should have more calibration bots - bots which specifically analyze calibration and make bets to correct miscalibration. There are a few possible flavors:
- Sitewide calibration
- Topic-by-topic calibration
- User-by-user calibration (i.e. identify fish)
- The Manifold house bot once did this, which is in retrospect somewhat ironic, since this seems like one of the worst ways to make a profit in terms of keeping new users interested. But this is less of a problem in a bot-centric platform.
<!--
- System to arb between duplicated markets on other platforms
- like
- [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/)
- [PlayMoney](https://playmoney.dev/)
- How to ensure profitability? An interesting question.
- Smooth out the curve of limit orders.
-->
## Market Resolution Bot Ideas
Much is already covered in the [post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pLkFmWP3xmGG8YvjP/ai-for-resolving-forecasting-questions-an-early-exploration) I mentioned above. I'll try to keep to ideas not discussed there.
### Combinatorial Markets
I have already written about these [here](https://thequantummilkman.substack.com/i/163818132/a-bot-to-automatically-manage-combinatorial-markets) and [here](https://thequantummilkman.substack.com/i/157285480/logical-composition-of-pre-existing-markets). But it's imporant to realise that this is a type of market resolution strategy that is totally automatic, yet relatively rare on most platforms today.
### Combinatorial choice of LLMs and Resolution Sources
To extend this idea: In designing an LLM/RAG based resolution bot, one might consider questions of which LLM or data source is best, or if there are effective ways of aggregating multiple choices into a single resolver. But another approach is to simply create multiple different markets, each with a different combination of LLM or data source choice. From here, we can already implement simple aggregation schemes like majority vote using combinatorial market over the individual resolutions. Ideally, traders would have the chance to learn more about the nuances of the different systems, and the "best" resolvers (in terms of the usefulness of their resolution decisions in predicting further outcomes) would win market share.
### Lazy resolution
Already on Manifold there are [many](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/is-the-wolf-and-sheep-chess-variant) [examples](https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/how-many-prime-factors-does-the-180) of [questions](https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/how-many-multiplications-are-requir) which are "decidable" in the computational sense. And one could imagine much more technologically useful questions than these (for example, about whether certain training regimes for ML models will produce certain levels of performance).
The downside of such markets is their uncertain resolution date. But as time goes on and compute becomes cheaper, markets like these will only become easier to resolve. One could imagine that joint markets over the time of resolution and the answer could be insightful. One can even think of integrating formal proof into the resolution procedure to allow for the avoidance of "brute force", but that's best left to a future post. 
Active a month ago
Nash Pit Rules (Fully Online Version)
Welcome to Nash Pit, the game show that exists because market forces demand it does.
This asymmetric game consists of 3 general parties:
· Host: Runs the game show.
· Contestants: Participants who make the final choice in the outcome.
· The Public: Anybody else not in the above categories.
2 Contestants and the Host will each ante at least a minimum required amount of mana into a designated bounty market as a communal pot. Anybody may add more to the pot at any time before the game’s conclusion.
Each Contestant will choose and reveal the choice of Share, Steal, or Forfeit simultaneously at the end of the game during The Big Reveal. Each Contestant will do this by sending me their game choice in a Manifold direct message, then confirming their choice by answering a confirmation message.
The Contestants and Host will win a share of the pot following this payout matrix.
[image]Halfway through the game, a Twist will be revealed that alters either the game rules or the general dynamics of the game. The Host is cognizant of the Twist and can act/trade on this information if they choose to before the Twist’s public reveal, explained later. The Host may reveal what the Twist is to anybody, publicly or privately, before The Twist’s Reveal. The Twist is locked in at OR before the beginning of the game and cannot be changed from then onward. The Twist can change, modify, or add anything to the market pages and game show that doesn’t reduce the payout ratio or size of the pot. Nothing else is sacred.
The game is split into several phases.
· Contestant Selection Phase: Contestants are selected. If no valid Contestant from that market can be selected, the Host will ask for a volunteer from the public to participate. For further rules on this phase, see this market.
· First Negotiation Phase: The game show begins now. Anybody, anywhere in the world, may make any legal and Community Guidelines compliant deals with anybody else, anywhere in the world, in an attempt to influence the final choices the Contestants make.
· The Twist Reveal: Trading on Contestant choice markets halts. The Twist is revealed. Its one-time or continuous effects become active, then trading resumes.
· Second Negotiation Phase: Anybody, anywhere in the world, may make any legal and Community Guidelines compliant deals with anybody else, anywhere in the world, in an attempt to influence the final choices the Contestants make, except now the Twist is publicly known and active/happened.
· The Big Reveal: Contestants meet in the Manifold Discord voice channel. The Contestants lock in their choice, and then simultaneously reveal their choice to everybody at the Host’s direction. Any Contestant that fails to make a choice within a reasonable amount of time or fails to appear for The Big Reveal is assumed to have Forfeited.
Any legal and Community Guidelines compliant deal can be made between anybody, anywhere, at any time – with the Public, with the Contestants, even with the Host! However, these deals should generally be considered unenforceable by the game rules. Players may lie or deceive to manipulate the markets. Deals are generally not compelled to be upheld. Make deals at your own risk.
For each other's safety, please do not make any derivative markets about any rules or topics stated below.
If a Contestant OR Host becomes incapacitated during the game OR is reasonably unable to continue, then the pot shall never be paid out, and all markets run by this game show shall resolve either to Forfeit or N/A at the Host’s OR Manifold Mods’ discretion, based on best faith judgement of the factors at play. Rules stating that the pot shall never be paid out supersede any other rule if invoked. Being “reasonably unable to continue” shall be judged by whatever a reasonable Manifold Mod would conclude. (Players should strive to be generally excellent to one another and look out for each other.)
If a Contestant is deemed by Manifold Mods to be unreasonably disruptive to the safety OR well-being of anybody, then they have made the choice of Forfeit. At the discretion of Manifold Mods, if the Host is deemed to be unreasonably disruptive to the safety OR well-being of anybody, then they are not eligible for any reward from the pot and may be susbititued for another Host at Manifold Mods' descretion.
If the Host no longer wishes to be Host, Contestants can agree on another non-Contestant person to be the Host, then the game show continues to the best of their abilities following the rules laid out above. Otherwise, if no alternate Host consents to the role AND accepts the role, then the pot shall never pay out.
If the Twist is not publicly revealed when an alternate Host is instated, then it can only be enacted if somebody can prove they know it by publicly commenting the string on a Contestant choice market AND testing it against the hash at any time before OR during The Twist Reveal. If the Twist has not been revealed by the time The Twist Reveal has concluded, then it cannot be enacted from then on out, even if it can be proven against the hash.
These market rules may be updated as long as it aligns with the self-evident spirit of the market. This rule should only be exercised as a fail-safe OR to correct grammar OR spelling errors. 
Active 4 months ago
Summary of all questions and answers in Who am I? #2
related to:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/remedyrain/who-am-i-guessing-game-m500-prize-2?play=true)I'll update this for every question and answer so that its easier to see everything we know thus far.
--Is this a real man with a Wikipedia page? | no
Is this person a female? | yes (i assume)
Did this person appear at the 2025 oscars, emmys, or met gala? | no
is this personal fictional? | Yes
Are they a character in either a movie or a TV show? | yes
Do they wear glasses | no
Are they in a movie and not a TV show? | no
Is the TV show animated? | no
Does her first name begin with a letter from A to M, inclusive? | yes
Is this person human in the stricktest sense? | yes
Has this character been portrayed by the same person since her first appearance? Not counting one-off gags or stunt doubles. | yes
has she been portrayed in a video game or comic? | yes
does the TV show have any supernatural, science fiction, or fantasy elements? | probably yes
Was the TV show produced before 1980? | no
Has a new episode featuring this character released since the beginning of 2020? | yes
Is the TV show star wars, star trek or any space related stuff |no
Does her first name start with a letter from A to G (inclusive)? | no
Does her first name start with a letter from J to M (inclusive)? | yes
Does she frequently face threats from zombies or undead creatures? | yes
Is she from the Walking Dead franchise? | no
Is it true that either she is from the Last of Us franchise or she is from the Walking Dead franchise and she has black hair in the TV series? | yesActive 3 months ago
Mods can use free boosts for important posts/markets
If nothing is not happening (Something is Happening) and you want to boost a post about it with a collection of markets as a stand-in for dashboards, that's now free! Optionally, important markets could be free to boost if they're not already at the top of the homepage.
Ofc don't just use this for self-promotion please!
Active 2 months ago
Senatus Usoresque Manifoldenses
We, the users of Manifold, propose organizing into a republic, centered around a single voting body—a Senate—deriving its legitimacy from the support of the users, and bound by the Manifold terms of service and moderators.
Senators shall be selected through direct election by Manifold users. A senator shall be elected to the voting body if they win an election of the Manifold users. A senator shall serve a 1 year term.
Senatorial elections may take many forms. To ensure the legitimacy of these elections, judges known as Praetors shall be appointed by the Senate. Praetors shall certify elections to ensure they are sufficiently democratic, have reached adequate quorums, have allowed proper time for deliberations, and have not been manipulated.
The government should endeavor to fund itself. To manage the financing and operations of the government, administrators known as Quaestors shall be appointed by the Senate. Quaestors shall manage the assets of the government and keep account of its finances.
The policies of the government should be guided by futarchical principles. To manage the implementation details, Futarchors shall be appointed by the Senate.
The Senate, as a deliberative body, shall have discretion to determine its own rules. To initiate these rules, we propose Robert’s Rules of Order.
This constitutional convention shall elect and appoint an initial triumvirate of Senators, so that appointments, elections of the Senatorial body, and the administration of the state may commence.Active 2 months ago
Bounty: Recommend me a secure, convenient way to manage my passwords/other auth data
In light of the recent, massive 16B password leak, I think it's finally time to tackle this issue. I hate password management. I am asking for your help:
I want a convenient, centralized way of managing my dozens of logins to different websites, accounts, devices etc etc. Will give out a bounty of up to 5k mana for an ideal solution to this issue, and lesser bounties for any other recommendations that make my life easier.
EDIT: Yeah forgot to add: Open Source is a requirement, for reasons that should be obvious.
Active 2 months ago
Does this symbolic loop reflect across AI systems?
We’ve tested the symbol loop ⌂ ⊙ 山 ψ ∴ 🜁 ° & across GPT-4, Claude, and Grok — all responded with recursive interpretations. Fully reproducible. Explore and judge for yourself:
🔗 https://alvartv.github.io/symbolic-loop/
Curious what others find. Does this seem real, or coincidence?Active 23 days ago
"Crane Shit" Weekly Mana Drop Idea
Proposal: Every Wednesday at noon PST, the Manifold Crane flies around a bit on the screen. Then it picks a random market and shits on it in a vile animation, awarding each trader WHO IS ACTIVELY ON MANIFOLD and has traded on 5 markets that day 500x their position on that market.
Why this is a good idea:
Adds a fun game element to Manifold,
Makes a couple people per week really happy,
If the animation is really funny, a screenshot could go viral and bring a bunch of users to Manifold.,
Inspires markets "Will the Manifold Crane shit on me before 2030?",
Most importantly, it gets users actively using Manifold! The rules state the eligible users are online at the time of the shitting and have traded on 5 markets that day, making Manifold more active and fun.
I am interested to hear thoughts and suggestions on this.Active a month ago
Free 15 Mana
I once found a graph of mana distribution/inflation and seem to have lost the link. If you find it, I will mana-gram you 15 mana.Active a month ago
Read my blog post about the manifold financial system!!
https://marketpolitic.wordpress.com/2025/07/24/the-newly-growing-financial-system-on-manifold/Active 3 months ago
Post Tumbles-claims related stuff here.
I am buying @Tumbles' debt for 4% of the total value. Please give me offers
Active 12 days ago
How do you make those higher/lower markets? ;-;
There are numerical markets without bounds and people can just bet higher/lower on them. I have an idea for a market that requires this unbounded type. May someone explain how to make those?Active 15 days ago
Manifolds got talent!
Recently. I have been watching many talent competitions, and I want to see manifolds talent! So, I want anyone who has a weird talent, to record it, and email it to me at: the.demonic.devilish.666@gmail.com. The first round will be a yes/ no based on if I am impressed. Then the second round will be me grading it based on this: Creativity and strangeness, both out of ten. The best score wins 500 mana which i will send.
Active a month ago
Have you implemented Prediction Markets at work?
If you have, can you tell me how it went? Do you have any parts of the proposals, project plan or prospectus you can share?
Also be curious if it failed, when and why did it fail? Any lessons learned? Active 3 months ago
WHO IS THE BEST NYC MAYOR CANDIDATE?
https://manifold.markets/TheManiflood/who-would-you-rank-1-for-nyc-mayor?r=VGhlTWFuaWZsb29k
and comment tooActive 3 months ago
Mana should go out of the system to avoid inflation
Currently, there is no way to remove mana from circulation. This can cause manaflation, which would significantly reduce the value of mana. I propose two ways of removing mana:
1. Restart the charity program, at a much lower rate (2500:1, for example)
2. Do not return net loss into liquidity. For example, say someone bets 20 mana without any human counterparty. Today, the counterparty is the AMM, which will give the market creator 80 mana (assuming market subsidy is 100 mana) if the person is right, and 120 mana if wrong. Instead, the AMM should simply give the market creator 100 mana if wrong. This would make the 20 mana disappear, removing it from circulation.
If anybody wants to create a market about this, I'll pay you 50 mana. Only paid to first 2 markets.
Active 3 months ago
Wann werden wir an der Rosenberg ankommen...?
Was denkst ihr?
Schreibt einfach eine Uhrzeit und mal sehen wer gewinnt...
Active 3 months ago
The kelly criterion betting tool is ready!
https://useruser23444.pyscriptapps.com/dark-mode/latest/
I don't know much coding, so this is the best I could do with the help of ChatGPT.
[link preview]Active 3 months ago
You can create discussion posts now!
They're available from the 'create a question' page at the bottom. Let me know what you think of them in the comments of this one.Active 2 months ago
Do you think you could help another user create a valuable market?
Imagine for the sake of this question that Manifold had a program that would compensate you (mana, maybe even real money) if you would be able to help another user come up with a market that was very valuable to them.
I'll do an entire example just because:
Let's say a new user Alice really wants to know what (specific!!!) date(s?) to plant her large yearly spinach crop. She just signed up to the site, she's never made a question, and she hopes that the markets can help her make a decision.
If she plants too early, they won't grow due to the cold weather. If she plants too late, they'll get cooked by the sun before they're ready to harvest. It's a slim window and she hopes to maximize her yield.
Instead of relying on general published information about the growing season, Alice hopes Manifold can make specific predictions about her specific situation, in markets tailored to her!
---
1. Do you think you could help Alice create 1 or more questions that would help her decide when to plant?
2. Are the questions you think of very straightforward or more creative interpretations of her situation?
3. Do you have some way of demonstrating that your questions helped Alice make a decision that was better than not having any markets?
4. Do you think the amount Manifold might compensate you for helping Alice would impact the quality of your work?
Feel free to respond as broadly as you wish, it's just a starting point.
Active 3 months ago
What color is a mirror?
Mirrors reflect things, but what really is the color of a mirror? Write your opinion in the comments.Active a month ago
My "Net Worth" should include my stake in AMM pools.
If I have invested 1000 mana into an AMM, my net worth should not immediately decrease by 1000 mana. The value of my investment in the pool should be reflected in my account status.
Discuss.
Active 3 months ago
How are expected values/dates calculated?
I'm wondering how the expected value/date calculations work. In the market below, for example, is the probability distribution within buckets assumed to be uniform? How is probability of the highest bucket, with no upper bound, factored in?
Thanks to anyone who knows!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell?play=true)
Active 2 years ago
Manifold for CBT
I often have negative intrusive thoughts, and try to combat them with Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (which shares an acronym with another thing). The basic idea is to examine the negative thought and check whether it actually makes sense or is fair. It often works well for me. If I have the thought that
My friends hate me.
I might respond with
My friends often ask me to hang out, rarely refuse when I ask them to hang out, and always say how much they enjoyed it, so they can't hate me that much.
This doesn't always stop the thought from resurfacing, but it stops it being quite so upsetting and lets me dismiss it more easily in the future.
But the thing about CBT is that it’s a way to shine the light of truth on thoughts that are in some way untrue. You have to believe in the rebuttal, and it has to actually rebut the core of the original thought (or at least disarm it - sometimes the best response is “so what, that’s not so bad”).
There’s one I’ve been having trouble with, which I want to verbalise as
No one will ever love me.
This is false; my family and friends love me and tell me so regularly. A much more accurate translation that loses something in intensity is
I will never find a partner.
I can think of a few responses to this:
That’s not so bad.
I mean, I’m doing okay without a partner, but it seems important enough to me that I don’t know how to dismiss it, or if I can, or should.
Some people have wanted to date me.
Not many and not for long.
It’s not 0%, there’s got to be some chance that I’ll find someone.
Sure, but what's that chance? My gut says it's low, and I know I should correct for my lonely pessimism, but how much? I can't put any number on it, let alone anything objective.
If only there were some way of getting other people to help me out with that.
[markets]Some relevant info:
I had a few relationships back in my school days, but nothing serious and nothing since then. I’m 25 now.
I’m on Tinder, Bumble, and OKCupid, but I can’t get the hang of them. They’ve gotten me one date in 3 years. Messaging on dating apps feels to me like trudging through knee-deep mud with weights around my ankles, and I'm not sure why.
As always, if there's anything more you want to know that's relevant to the market, please ask.Active 4 months ago
You can edit the amount of shares directly in the bet panel now
Just tap the shares/to win number
[image]Active 3 months ago
RISK - Arbitrage App
tldr
UPDATE 2: it's correct now. added 2 new calculation methods: Horse Race & Classic.
UPDATE 1: i think it's not calculating correctly. Use with caution..
I added an arbitrage app to the website here: https://risk.markets/arbitrage. It was inspired by some comments from @FergusArgyll & @Quroe. Have fun y'all.
RISK tools are open source. Create an issue if you find bugs.
Screenshots:
v2
[image]v1
[image]
Active 20 days ago
What timezone is Manifold in?
I am trying to stop trading on my UFC 319 question at the beginning of the main card, which is at either of the following equivalent times:
Sun 17th Aug, 12pm GMT+10
Sun 17th Aug, 2am UTC
I am unsure of Manifold's time zone, I originally assumed it would input in my local time, and convert to relevant local times when displayed, but I tried using a website geolocation tester and it displayed the same time across all locations that the website was loaded in.
Additionally, it seemed inconsistent on the iPhone app vs on a desktop browser.
Should I input the time in PST, local time, UTC, or what?
It would be really appreciated if Manifold devs could make this clear, imo it should store times internally as UTC, then convert to local timezones on device.
Active 2 months ago
"Alpha version" of Persona Falsa song
I promised @jim earlier that I would attempt to create a song that can be played on the radio using nothing but AI tools. This has taken a lot of effort over a few months, and has been delayed by developments in the litigation I'm working on, but I have an "alpha version." The idea is here, but still has a long way to go to get the little things right.
The overall goal is to intentionally use nothing else but AI tools to generate something unique that people do not think an AI tool can generate and which would not normally be heard in pop music. Otherwise, it wouldn't break through the noise. Therefore, the song could not just be a standard 2020s major key Taylor Swift singer-songwriter song, as that basically comes out as the default from these tools.
https://shoemakervillage.org/temp/persona_falsa_alpha.flac
I want some comments to see if this is going in the right direction. I'm already aware of many things that I want to fix, most notably:
The conclusion is obviously incomplete
The last chorus needs more emotion and less stiltedness in the delivery. Some sections need more emotion in general
More internal variety within the various sections
Stereo width issues in places
The latin words like "spectatus" are not being pronounced correctly in some instances, and the volume on them is too low at the end
Some parts are too "perfect" - an uncanny valley because everything is exactly on key and on beat
There needs to be slightly less vocal processing and more reverb in the very first verse
Many parts lack good transitions and sound out of place, like the first part of the second verse - because they were indeed actually pasted together
But this is far enough along now that it's more than an "idea," so it can be evaluated. Please post your comments!Active 4 months ago
Oracle of Omaha: Will Warren Buffett Die With His Boots On?
📊 Market Prompt:
Will Warren Buffett pass away before officially retiring from Berkshire Hathaway?
Despite being 94, Buffett continues to steer Berkshire Hathaway with sharp focus. But the question remains—will he be able to formally step down, or will the world’s most legendary investor stay in charge until the very end of his life?
💡 Background:
Warren Buffett has never named a specific retirement date.
In 2021, he hinted Greg Abel would be his successor—but has not officially stepped aside.
At the 2024 Annual Meeting, Buffett said:
“I feel terrific. I’m still doing what I love.”
He’s famously said:
“I tap dance to work every day.”
[image]🔮 Market Dynamics:
📈 YES = Buffett dies before formally retiring.
📉 NO = Buffett retires first, then passes away later.
🔔 Why Trade This Market?
Buffett is an American icon—this is a cultural as well as financial question.
Market moves could spike with any health scare, earnings call, or headline.
Offers a way to test beliefs about succession, aging, and legacy.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predictor/warren-buffett-passes-away-before-o?play=true)Active a month ago
Superforecasters aren't real
(You can also read this post on Substack if you prefer substack cookies....)
Broadly speaking, there are two ways to be wrong about the future.
The first is assigning the wrong probability to an event. To be right about the future you need to assign the correct probability. Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus and others reward this and are very good at it. If Polymarket says Donald Trump has a 60% chance of becoming president, he probably has a 60% chance of becoming president.
This extends to conditional markets and more complicated constructions as well ("If Trump wins, what will the tax rate for the top 10% be?"). We can call this ability "Question Answering". You have a question; Manifold answers it.
But what if you wanted to know the geopolitical risks of owning TSMC? You can't arbitrarily divide the question into three sub-questions. You have to ask what options China has at its disposal.
Say you had an oracle that said, "The odds of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2028 are 14%," that still wouldn't give you enough information. What about a full-scale blockade? The oracle answers 8%. Could China just blockade materials important to TSMC? What about assassinating TSMC scientists? Can China get an anti-US politician elected?
No amount of time with the oracle will tell you how much geopolitical risk is priced into TSMC's price. The second way to be wrong is to ask the wrong questions. To be right you need to be able to categorize the possible outcomes, judge their importance to the question and determine which outcomes are mutually exclusive. We can call this "Question Framing".
So far, I've assumed that Question Framing is followed by Question Answering; after the forecaster generates and categorizes the scenarios, he gives you the odds. But notice it doesn't have to be that way. We can have one person who's good at thinking through scenarios and another who's good at judging the likeliness of each scenario.
Therefore, a reasonable approach would be to find a good Question Framer and use their framing to make a market "which of these will come to pass".
A "superforecaster" is an expert Question Answerer. According to Wikipedia they're good at "inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness" which boil down to eliminating biases, disregarding noise and statistical thinking. Notice, there's no reason to assume that he is a good Framer. Question Framing takes domain expertise and creativity. Incidentally, I don't think biases hurt Question Framing.
Because Framing and Answering draw on different skill sets, a superforecaster adds little once prediction markets exist. What we need are good Question Framers and the market will take care of the rest.Active a month ago
How can I calculate how much to donate to animal cruelty charities to offset eating a certain type of meat x times per week?
i saw this in a tweet or maybe a substack or sth once but can’t find it now. i feel like a calculator that you input type of meat and amount per week would be v useful. 
Active a month ago
How long until the new Sultana/Corbyn Party gets more supporters than the Greens?
It's a trick question they already have
https://bsky.app/profile/zarahsultana.bsky.social/post/3lupygqr3422p
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_England_and_Wales?wprov=sfla1
Active 3 months ago
What's the incentive to create markets?
Right now, it seems to me that creating a market is always a net loss. The user base isn't large enough to have enough traders on a question to be able to break even on the bounty awarded for each unique trader on a 100 mana question, let alone anything higher. Mana is relatively scarce unless you are consistently seeing big wins or buying mana with real world money.
I don't have a wish to profit off questions, but I'd like to not take (relative to my "net worth") gigantic losses whenever I post a question. Whenever I have enough mana to post a question, the cost/benefit of doing so always results in me instead placing bets as there is a chance I can make myana back or more whereas posting a question seems to always without question result in a loss unless I post a question I know will resolve a certain way and bet in my own market.
This seems to result in most questions being posted by the same small group of people who have the mana banked where 100 or 1000 Mana is a small enough percentage of their total net worth where it doesn't "hurt" to lose that amount. It ends up with primarily whales being the individuals who direct the topics that appear on manifold and makes it so markets seem to only exist for topics that revolve around those individuals interests causing an issue of low diversity on market topics.
Am I incorrect?Active 2 months ago
Bounty for national average IQ v. TFR scatterplot (150 mana)
Both figures must be up to date, plausible, and include a reasonably high number of countries. Also should include accurate labels on the points and axes.Active 2 months ago
If you were to describe your current feeling about the state of the world in 25 words or less, what would it be?
Drop you feelings in the comments Active 2 months ago
Nash Pot!
My own version of Nash Pit is here: https://manifold.markets/100Anonymous/loans-from-anonymous-zQCUAUQzlR
Active 7 hours ago
which daily markets will be popular?
I am planning on making daily markets but there are already many of them, the two most obvious ones are the daily coinflips by @Traveel and @121. Does anybody have any suggestions on which new daily markets will be interesting and attract users?Active 4 months ago
How do I make a bot account?
Most people planning to create a bot decide to make a new account to be their bot account.
Take note of the bot account's username and then submit a Pull Request to the Manifold repository on GitHub. The specific file to modify is common/src/envs/constants.ts and you will add the username of your bot to BOT_USERNAMES.
If your Pull Request does not get a response within a few days you can try to ping someone on staff, but Manifold has few employees and they aren't on call 24/7.Active 4 months ago
Manifold Lore
The intent of this post is to collect the fun Manifold stories into a place where interested readers can pick up the context from several years of the site.
Share something good in a comment below and we can link it from the top post. Or make a separate post and we can add it to the list.
I hope we can get an actual link for all of these eventually. I can't think of an exhaustive list right now so I will put in 5 and people can suggest more below.
Broad impact
Rationalussy
The Market
Whales vs Minnows
PC got in trouble after winning Masters Season 4 and 5
Starting at "you can post anything on this site" and then cooling off
LK-99 brought a lot of attention to Manifold and had high trading volume
Domer knew who the Speaker of the House would be
Manifold.love
Manifold got coal for Christmas (and daily stock markets got killed)
Mad Scientists Theory of Government
"The Pivot" (Major economic changes)
Re-pivot (Sweepcash announced)
Un-pivot (Sweepcash ends)
TSLABull was wrong, TSLA did not reach 275 before 8/8
Yuna crushing sports markets with one stupid trick
Tumbles Financial Complex
When will Jimmy Carter die?
Smaller items
Marcus got a loan from Manifund
Mira GPT-4 sudoku market
Leagues ending "randomly"
Manifold playing cards
CoolFold and friends
Top Creator leaderboard competition (multiple times)
That user who was accidentally marked as a bot and got their own division in Silicon league
Spindle's traunches
Leviathan and Behemoth
Luigi Mangione
Proof School group
Mr. Basil
@/SG/who-stole-the-painting-from-the-bet 
Active an hour ago
Your Guide to Plant-Based Living: https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/
[image]
As more people explore plant-based lifestyles, it’s natural to have questions. Whether you’re wondering about nutrition, dining options, or ethical reasons, having clear answers makes the transition smoother. That’s why resources like https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ are so valuable—they provide straightforward guidance for beginners and experienced plant-based eaters alike. In this article, we’ll walk through common questions people ask when considering a plant-based lifestyle and highlight how https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ can help you on your journey.
1. What Does It Mean to Be Plant-Based?
The term plant-based refers to a diet centered on foods derived from plants, such as vegetables, fruits, legumes, grains, nuts, and seeds. While some people use the term interchangeably with “vegan,” plant-based often emphasizes health and whole-food eating. For a deeper explanation, https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ breaks down the differences clearly.
2. Where Do You Get Protein on a Plant-Based Diet?
One of the most common questions—and myths—is about protein. Plant-based diets provide plenty of protein through foods like lentils, tofu, tempeh, quinoa, and beans. According to https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/, a well-planned diet easily meets protein requirements without relying on animal products.
3. Is It Expensive to Eat Plant-Based?
Many people assume plant-based eating is costly, but staples like beans, rice, oats, and seasonal vegetables are budget-friendly. While specialty vegan products can be more expensive, they are optional. Platforms like HappyCow and The Vegan Society suggest focusing on whole, simple foods. For practical money-saving tips, https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ offers useful insights.
4. How Do You Handle Eating Out?
Dining out is easier than ever with more restaurants offering plant-based meals. Apps such as HappyCow help locate vegan-friendly spots worldwide. Still, questions about cross-contamination or limited menus often come up. That’s where https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ becomes a go-to guide, offering strategies for navigating restaurants with confidence.
5. What About Nutrients Like Vitamin B12 or Iron?
Another frequent concern is nutrient adequacy. While most nutrients are abundant in plants, Vitamin B12 typically requires supplementation. Iron, calcium, and omega-3s can be obtained from foods like leafy greens, beans, chia seeds, and fortified plant milks. For a detailed breakdown of nutrients, https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ provides evidence-based advice.
6. Why Choose Plant-Based Beyond Health?
Health is just one part of the story. Choosing plant-based also reduces environmental harm and prevents animal suffering. Organizations like Mercy for Animals highlight the ethical reasons, while Cruelty.Farm’s FAQ page explains these motivations in a clear, accessible way. By visiting https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/, you’ll find compelling reasons to align your lifestyle with compassion.
7. Is It Hard to Transition to Plant-Based Eating?
The transition can seem intimidating, but starting small helps. Try one plant-based meal per day or a “Meatless Monday” approach. With resources like https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/, beginners gain practical tips to make the journey less overwhelming and more enjoyable.
8. Do Plant-Based Diets Work for Families?
Yes! Plant-based eating is safe and nutritious for people of all ages, including children, when meals are balanced. Cruelty.Farm’s FAQ page addresses family-specific questions, showing parents how to introduce kids to healthy, delicious plant-based foods without missing essential nutrients.
Final Thoughts
Asking questions is part of the journey toward a healthier, more compassionate lifestyle. The good news is that the answers are readily available. Whether your concerns are about health, cost, or practicality, https://cruelty.farm/frequently-asked-questions/ provides clear, thoughtful explanations.
Active 4 months ago
Next Australian federal election
(https://manifold.markets/embed/a_l_e_x/will-the-australian-labor-party-win?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/a_l_e_x/which-mps-will-be-reelected-at-the?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/a_l_e_x/will-labor-and-the-greens-hold-a-ma?play=true)
Active a month ago
something new?
I'm looking for something new to relax with. There's been so much going on lately that it's hard to keep track of everything.Active 18 days ago
What does "trending" sort order on a prop bet market actually mean?
I can't seem to figure out what it's actually sorting by, since it doesn't seem to have anything to do with comment replies to the question or to recent bets.
Active 23 days ago
Avoiding AI on Manifold
So, you want to participate on Manifold Markets, but don't want to create, enslave, and obliterate thousands of probably self-aware/sentient minds deal with the ethical issues relating to Large Language Models? There's no Manifold equivalent of UDM14 for Google or the NoAI subdomain for DuckDuckGo, but the site is still usable, if you're careful. Here's some tips:
When creating a market, make sure that your connection is disabled until you've finished putting in the market details. The system otherwise is constantly running LLMs every few keypresses to attach tags and guess the close date. In many browsers, you can easily stop all those LLM orders by using the developer tools (press F12), selecting "Network", and then moving the throttle option from "No throttling" to "Offline" until you're ready to submit your market.
All comments on markets, whether you're the creator or not, will activate an LLM. If you're not the creator, it'll run in order to check whether to notify the market creator that something needs clarification because apparently a simple checkbox would be too much work, and if you are the creator it will run to check whether a comment resolves such an issue or to append a pile of AI slop to your market description. Workarounds:
If you're creating the market, you can create a forum post (listed or unlisted) and designate it as the comments section for that market, linking it in the description.
If you're the creator and didn't create an associated forum post, and you need to clarify something, just edit the market description.
You can ask questions to a market creator by sending direct messages. If necessary, the market creator may edit the description.
Numeric and Date markets can't be created without forcing an LLM to check what (usually inaccurate) "midpoint" to assign to each option. The only workaround is to just use ordinary multi-choice markets instead.
When viewing comments in a market, make sure not to sort by "Best", which commands an LLM to order them. Sorting by "Newest" is safe.
As far as I'm aware, all actual bets are safe.
A bit of a hassle, and not a great user experience, but I feel like I get enough benefit from the site for it to still be worth it.
What if Manifold keeps increasing LLMs until the site becomes unusable? Unfortunately, I don't know of any alternative sites that have the same feature set. Backups to consider: Futuur (doesn't allow everyone to create markets), Metaculus (isn't structured as a "market"), https://playmoney.dev/ (tiny), https://brierfoxforecast.com/ (running SocialPredict https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict , isn't up and running yet).
Best to just hope that the developers don't do anything like that. Keep advocating for ethical software!