The Manifold Challenge

🕖 7 weeks. 👨 7 contestants. 💵 Ṁ37,350+.

Ever wondered what would happen if you crossbred prediction markets, reality television, and people with too much time on their hands? This is it!

How does it work?

Each week:

Contestants compete in a new challenge.
Contestants submit a short video documenting their misery completing the tasks.
Manifold watches.
Manifold votes on which was the worst.
The winner of the poll is eliminated.

How can I enter?

💰 Step 1: Add Ṁ25 or Ṁ50 to this bounty.

📺 Step 2: Make a short video (1 minute or less) explaining why you should do the Manifold Challenge and DM a link to it to @ManifoldChallenge.

👨 Step 3: If you are selected to participate, you will be tagged on a post or comment by @ManifoldChallenge.

💸 Step 4: If you were selected, add Ṁ950 to this bounty.

😛 Step 5: Be an idiot during the weekly challenges!

Enter today!

Any questions? DM @ManifoldChallenge or comment.

❓ FAQ:

Are there official markets about the Manifold Challenge?

Markets are coming soon. There will be one official "Who will win?" market created by @ManifoldChallenge and there will also be sponsored side markets created by @evan.

Is this a rip-off FOLDED?

No, it's actually very different in terms of the structure of the game and the style of the challenges.

Who is behind this?

The Manifold Challenge was created by @realDonaldTrump and @Geofry. It was inspired by @LoganTurner's potato. The Manifold Challenge is sponsored by @SirSalty, @Manifold, @Bayesian and @Eliza, and contributors include @evan, @jim, @strutheo, @crowlsyong, @realDonaldTrump, and @Geofry.

Am I allowed to make bribes and side deals related to the Challenge?

Yes, as long as it follows Manifold's TOS and is not crazy (like Whales vs. Minnows shenanigans).

What will the challenges be like?

Challenges will be stupid and fun, and for the most part pretty open-ended. A good rule of thumb is that the more fun you're having with it, the better it will fare when it comes time for voting.

How long will the challenges take me?

Challenges get progressively harder. Below are estimates of how long it will take you to complete the actual planned challenges, not including any video editing. Please note Challenges 5 and 6 allot 2 weeks of planning.

Week 1: 15 minutes.
Week 2: 30 minutes.
Week 3: 60 minutes.
Week 4: 30-60 minutes.
Week 5: 2.5-5 hours.
Week 6: However long you choose!

Can contestants be kicked out of the game?

If contestants violate any of these outlined rules, the contestant will be disqualified. In the event a contestant is disqualified, a prospective contestant who initially applied will be selected to fill in for the disqualified competitor. If they no longer want to participate, another applicant will be contacted until there is a replacement.

Can I quit?

If you want, but it is discouraged and you will not receive a refund. If you do chicken out, you will replaced according to the aforementioned rules.

What if I am late with a challenge submission?

There is a 24 hour grace period that can be used once in the challenge. If you fail to submit your response after that time, you will be replaced according to the aforementioned rules.

Are contestants allowed to vote in elimination polls?

You are allowed to vote once. If you are suspected to have voted 2+ times on an alt account, you will be replaced. (See above.)

What are the timeline and dates of the challenge?

September 2: Challenge announced, contestant applications open.
September 8: Contestant applications close.
September 9: Contestants announced, official markets launch, first challenge announced.
September 12: First challenge submissions due, voting opens.
September 16: Elimination announced, second challenge announced.
September 17: Second challenge submissions due, voting opens.
September 23: Elimination announced, third challenge announced.
September 26: Third challenge submissions due, voting opens.
September 30: Elimination announced, fourth challenge announced.
October 3: Fourth challenge submissions due, voting opens.
October 7: Elimination announced, fifth challenge announced.
October 10: Fifth challenge submissions due, voting opens.
October 14: Elimination announced, final challenge announced.
October 21: Final challenge submissions due, voting opens.
October 25: Winner announced.