What market have you seen which had the highest probability of resolving YES but ending up resolving NO (or vice versa)? Bonus points if you believe that traders were making a poor analysis (and not just unlucky). Extra bonus points if the market had many traders.
Interestingly, this guy predicted the next pope months before the election https://x.com/pope_predictor/status/1893436282656669720
So it's not like nobody could've known.
On 9/29/23, next shutdown in 2025 was at 0.1%. It was all on 2023 or 2024. While I it was reasonable to expect a shutdown before 2025, this was still way way overconfident. I bought it up to 1.9%, then chickened out and sold back to 0.7%. Should have had more faith in my analysis.
401 traders overall, 86 traders in the 2025 option.
