https://manifold.markets/skibidist/when-will-manifold-run-out-of-money

I think this should have resolved YES in late 2024 but all bettors bet differently and I didn't have the fortitude to do it.

Why? Excuse me, I wasn't active at all at that time.

I will judge whether they have run out of money primarily by the occurrence of drastic cuts in the number or salaries of founder & non-founder employees and contractors.

@100Anonymous They reduced headcount by a very big % after the venture funding mostly ran out, hard to judge exactly since they no longer update the numbers and salaries. But people seem to have interpreted the question as Manifold stops functioning or something like that.

@skibidist I am actually worried about manifold's future now.

@100Anonymous It seems to me they can function in the current state for a long time (depending mostly on the current tiny team's will to do so), but they haven't been able to create growth so far that would make it self-sustaining as a business.

@skibidist i don't agree (i.e. i'm with the majority with the traders in the market). sweepstakes failed, so they pivoted (once again) to new business model with much lower overhead. "switching to a new business model because your current approach is failing" != "manifold ran out of money".

that might be a meaningless distinction if it was like, they're running out of money so they've gotta rush to do layoffs—in that case, sure, it's effectively them running out of money, even if they never literally did. but that just wasn't the timeline at all? afaik, james & sinclair left fully of their own volition (james 6+ months before), which doesn't match the language in the description. i especially can't see any argument for "late 2024", which doesn't match any of the staff departures.

if "running out of money" is equated with "drastic shift in business plan because the old model isn't working", then the biggest shift by far was in ~april 2024 with the original pivot, when manifold fully gave up on its original business model. but if someone had claimed that reflected manifold "running out of money", i would have found that characterization strange (if you wanted to say "manifold's plan failed", that is definitely true but a separate thing).

none of this is a projection about manifold's future business prospects (i mean if they announced "we're running low on money" in the next few weeks then i guess that'd be evidence for an early 2025 resolution, but i do not expect that to happen)

@Ziddletwix Hmm... Okay then. I wasn't active during sweepstakes, so I don't know much.

@100Anonymous i mean your comment was "I am actually worried about manifold's future now" and unfortunately none of what i said means all that much for its longer term future viability (it's just about what happened in 2024-2025Q1). i would be quite surprised if manifold folded in the short term but i have no idea about long term viability

@Ziddletwix That still holds true though. I was thinking short term, so yeah you're right.

@Ziddletwix I will accept your point of view and sleep better knowing there is no tension between the market's resolution and reality on the ground.