📖RIPE Research In Prediction Markets
🦝RISK | 📖RIPE | ⛑️POOR | ⚖️LAWS
📖RIPE is a manifold non-profit we created to lead the way in researching the prediction economy. We aim to take advantage of the API in order to gather and organize data to make it useful to not only ourselves, but also the community at large.
Update #4 | 26/04/2025 - More changes!
Our research branch is in the lab right now. They are testing much lower fees.
Coverage fee
C₂₅ – 25% of loan covered = 1.02x fee
C₅₀ – 50% of loan covered = 1.05x fee
C₇₅ – 75% of loan covered = 1.11x fee
C₁₀₀ – 100% of loan covered = 1.21x fee
And adding:
Duration fee
<1 month = 1.02x fee
1–2 months = 1.06x fee
3–5 months = 1.1x fee
6–11 months = 1.25x fee
12–23 months = 1.35x fee
24–47 months = 1.6x fee
48months+ = 1.8x fee
This helps give better deals to shorter term loans, and should make sure high credit score users don't get shafted with high fees. Having a high credit score should always result in low fees, so we will report back if these numbers work.
Update #3 | 23/04/2025 - Fee Calc., Credit Score Changes
We modified our Credit Score System algorithms- they should be more accurate now.
Our Insurance Fee calculator is almost ready for primetime (see screenshot below). Researchers are a little worried though. The API (which is used to generate 🦝RISK Credit Scores) is also in Alpha, and may change/break at anytime. Since this is the backbone of our business, we are seeking to diversify our strategy for generating good, accurate credit scores. If this research interests you, contact
to assist (working for 📖RIPE has benefits such as a quarterly dividend payout!).
Update #2 | 23/04/2025 - Investment Opportunities
RIPE is investigating the utility of dividends as an investment option. Each quarter 🦝RISK would pay a percentage of the fees earned as a dividend. The larger the investment, the higher the percent in dividends. This opportunity is only available for investments of 20k-100k Mana.
If you're that investor, contact
today!
Update #1 | 21/04/2025 - Determining Risk
Learn how we calculate risk. See chart below.
Research idea
🦝 RISK Loan Packages (RLPs) and 🦝RISK Package Insurance (RPIs)
At 🦝RISK, we’re proud to expand the future of peer-to-peer lending with two powerful new offerings: 🦝RISK Loan Packages (RLPs) and 🦝RISK Package Insurance (RPIs).
🦝RISK Loan Packages (RLPs)
🦝RISK will now bundle individual insured loans into investment packages. These bundles will be independently rated from AAA (safest) to BBB (riskiest), helping you select investments that match your risk appetite — all while knowing the loans are already backed by 🦝RISK insurance.
AAA Packages: Loans to low-risk borrowers; highly stable and modest returns.
AA and A Packages: A blended portfolio of low- and standard-risk borrowers.
BBB Packages: Higher proportions of high-risk borrowers; higher potential returns but more volatility.
🦝RISK Package Insurance (RPIs)
Beyond loan-level protection, you can now insure entire packages, and even sets of packages.
If multiple borrowers in a package default, 🦝RISK Package Insurance ensures you recover your insured share based on the selected coverage.
and then this is probably not a wise idea:
How It Works: Examples for Manifold Users
Let's walk through realistic scenarios:
Example 1: Buying a AAA RLP
You invest: 10,000 mana in a AAA RLP
Expected gross return (before insurance): ~5%
10,000 mana × 1.05 = 10,500 manaYou buy RPI at 1% cost:
10,000 mana × 0.01 = 100 mana insurance costFinal return (if loans repay as expected):
(10,500 - 100) = 10,400 manaIf defaults occur, insurance can soften or erase the impact.
Example 2: Buying a BBB RLP
You invest: 10,000 mana in a BBB RLP
Expected gross return (higher yield): ~12%
10,000 mana × 1.12 = 11,200 manaYou purchase RPI at 4% cost:
10,000 mana × 0.04 = 400 mana insurance costFinal return (if loans repay as expected):
(11,200 - 400) = 10,800 manaIf defaults are higher than expected, insurance helps recover losses up to coverage limits.
We’re excited to offer smarter, more flexible ways to grow your mana while managing your exposure. We are even considering building products on Manifold which correlate to fake money versions of health, life, car, business, and home owners insurance! We may also dabble in debt refinancing, but that's for the future to determine. We are also looking into providing services on manifold for Mergers & Acquisitions. We just might design a layer 2 solution for our products to integrate seamlessly into manifold. We also plan to use the API for various services and products. We may also use AI to automate tasks and finally: we hope to have a roadmap up soon. If you are a service provider on manifold and investors want to acquire your business, us to us first.
Stay tuned for more updates and happy investing.