House Speaker

Israel

Mystery Drones

Cabinet

CEO Shooter

Sora 

What Will Trump Do?

OpenAI

Bitcoin

Korea Martial Law

Ding v. Gukesh

Golden Globes

Glicked 🏟️🧹

2028 Election

AGI Timelines

Biden

Taylor Swift

Elon/Tesla

Sama Drama

AI Math

Nvidia

Twitter

ACX 2024 

One Piece

Music AI Race

Hard Forkasts

Sign up limited to users confirming they are 18+ years of age (or age of majority in applicable jurisdictions)

The primary type of currency/credit on Manifold is play-money (i.e. Mana, like Fliff Coins)

A second type of currency/credit on Manifold is sweepstakes entries redeemable for real cash prizes (i.e. Prize Points, like Fliff Cash)

A third type of currency/credit exists on Manifold that is similar in nature to Fliff’s Experience Points (XP)

The ratio of Prize Points to USD is 1:1 (like $1 Fliff Cash is redeemable to $1 USD)

There is a game mode toggle that enables users to change between playing "games" with Mana and playing "games" with Prize Points

The minimum prize redemption amount (i.e. cashing out Sweepcash) is equivalent to $50 USD

Sweepcash may be redeemed only every 5 days

Sweepcash expire after 30 days of inactivity (i.e. not logging in)

The majority of “games” on Manifold are about sports

Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Idaho

Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Washington

Non-US residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

Residents of Idaho are not allowed to participate in participate in sweepstakes

Residents of Hawaii are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

Residents of Nevada are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

Residents of Tennessee are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

Residents of Washington are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

Sweepcash Free Collection Method #1: Sweepcash is obtainable for free as a bonus when collecting free Mana

Prize Points Free Collection Method #2: Prize Points are obtainable for free as a bonus when purchasing Mana

Sweepcash Free Collection Method #3: Sweepcash is obtainable for free when entering no-cost giveaway contests on Manifold social media pages

Prize Points Free Collection Method #4: Prize Points are obtainable for free by sending a request by mail

Mail requests for free Prize Points must be entirely handwritten

Mail requests for free Sweepcash are be granted Sweepcash in an amount roughly equivalent to $10 USD each

Mail requests for free Sweepcash are limited to a maximum of 50 per user

Residents of Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, and Ohio may only obtain Sweepcash through Free Collection Methods #1 and #3 (see those answers for descriptions)

Identity verification is required for participation in sweepstakes

Manifold uses Persona (withpersona.com) for identity verification

Prize Points collected for free are not immediately available for redemption of a prize and must be used in a game first

Sweepcash collected for free must be used in a game where the odds of winning have an implied probability of 75% or less before eligible for redemption of a prize

Users can use Sweepcash to play sweepstakes games that reward them more Sweepcash

Before redeeming any prize, users must complete a Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Verification process that includes proof of 1) valid photo ID, 2) biometric facial scan recognition, 3) proof of address, and 4) validation of SSN

Manifold reserves the right to limit sweepstakes entries or exclude users from participating who they deem as “professional”, “non-recreational” or similar

Users in New York and Florida cannot redeem more than $5,000 USD in prizes in the defined sweepstakes period

The sweepstakes period is defined as a single calendar month

Manifold reserves a right to deactivate your account if inactive for 12 months

Manifold reserves a right to limit users from redeeming more than $1,000 USD per week in prizes

Additional verification procedures are required for users reaching $600+ in cumulative prizes

Manifold reserves a right to consider users in debt to Manifold if Manifold mistakenly awards Prize Points that the user redeems prior to Manifold correcting the mistake

Manifold reserves a right to use for promotional/media purposes any of the following details of users participating in sweepstakes: name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory

Manifold provides a list of sweepstakes winners upon request via mail

Purchase of Mana is not required to continue playing “games” on Manifold - if your balance of Mana is insufficient to continue playing “games” on Manifold, you will be provided instructions to receive sufficient Mana to continue playing

Employees and former employees of Manifold and their immediate family and household members are not eligible to participate in “games” on Manifold

Employees and former employees of Manifold and their immediate family and household members are not eligible to collect Sweepcash

Spoiler support for serialized media/sports

Manifold Sports Page like Manifold Politics 

Expanded Poll Features (Approval voting, Ranked Choice, Secret Vote, etc)

Changing the default bet type from market orders to limit orders

Re-designing market pages with an alternate display intended for VIEWERS instead of BETTORS

Early "No" Resolution for Linked Multiple Choice options

Personalized recommendations: User interest x Market Quality Signals

Change new trader bonus to be smaller but on new traders per day

Separate Conditional/Decision Market Type

The ability to sort answers in MC markets by trader count and volume

Futarchy (clear targets, markets on what optimizes them, and they decide what gets done)

Whole-market leaderboards for MC markets and Topics too

Either: comment reacts and/or a Karma(ish) system for comment interactions on markets 

Bookmark icon for markets with share held

Manifold doesn't launch real money prizes in 2024

Manifold launches real money prizes in 2024 but does not have them at the end of 2024

Manifold has real money prizes at the end of 2024

Manifold Sweepstakes