Context: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393
Resolves to:
Whether Manifold launches real money prizes any time in 2024.
Whether Manifold has real money prizes at the end of 2024.
For this market, "real money prizes" is defined, roughly speaking, as whether users can spend real money (USD) to make bets, and then receive most (at least 70-80%) of the value of the profits in cash (USD). The details are below.
Resolution details
For this market, "real money prizes" is defined as: the ability for a US user who spends $100 USD to purchase mana (or possibly some other currency/points on Manifold), bets it on YES on a market at an average price of 10% after trading fees, which resolves in their favor (i.e. the same bet in pure real-money would yield a profit of $900), to receive at least $700 USD of cash prizes.
All steps in this process must be officially supported by Manifold. For this market, it does not matter if any aspect of this is later found to be legally acceptable or legally unacceptable, only whether it is officially supported by Manifold at the time.
Donations to charity, merchandise, or gift cards do not count - you must be able to receive cash in USD. Other currencies do not count (foreign currencies, crypto, etc).
This market is about US users, because it is about Manifold operating in the US with US users. If they pivot to another country and exclude all US users (similar to Polymarket), that doesn't count.
It counts if many users can do this even if there are limitations - e.g. it can be limited to only users in one state, to users over 18, to bets on a limited set of markets, etc. and that would still suffice.
(The $700 threshold in the definition is intended so that if the real money prizes are very small compared to the notional value of the profits as calculated based on the cost to buy the mana, that doesn't count. I don't anticipate that to happen, but wanted to specifically exclude it to avoid various similar edge cases. For example, tournaments like those previously held on Manifold would not count because their prizes require outperforming other traders - the price you trade at on the market does not determine the prizes, so it would not meet the above definition.)
If there is ambiguity about whether the criteria are met, the market will be decided by a group of mods, not by myself.