In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?
In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?
25
1.7kṀ6719
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
N/A
Purchase of Mana is not required to continue playing “games” on Manifold - if your balance of Mana is insufficient to continue playing “games” on Manifold, you will be provided instructions to receive sufficient Mana to continue playing
Resolved
YES
Prize Points Free Collection Method #4: Prize Points are obtainable for free by sending a request by mail
Resolved
YES
The primary type of currency/credit on Manifold is play-money (i.e. Mana, like Fliff Coins)
Resolved
YES
A second type of currency/credit on Manifold is sweepstakes entries redeemable for real cash prizes (i.e. Prize Points, like Fliff Cash)
Resolved
YES
The ratio of Prize Points to USD is 1:1 (like $1 Fliff Cash is redeemable to $1 USD)
Resolved
YES
There is a game mode toggle that enables users to change between playing "games" with Mana and playing "games" with Prize Points
Resolved
YES
Prize Points do not earn interest
Resolved
YES
Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Idaho
Resolved
YES
Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Washington
Resolved
YES
Residents of Idaho are not allowed to participate in participate in sweepstakes
Resolved
YES
Residents of Washington are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
Resolved
YES
Prize Points Free Collection Method #2: Prize Points are obtainable for free as a bonus when purchasing Mana
Resolved
YES
Mail requests for free Prize Points must be entirely handwritten
Resolved
YES
Identity verification is required for participation in sweepstakes
Resolved
YES
Manifold reserves a right to consider users in debt to Manifold if Manifold mistakenly awards Prize Points that the user redeems prior to Manifold correcting the mistake
Resolved
YES
Prize Points collected for free are not immediately available for redemption of a prize and must be used in a game first
Resolved
YES
Sign up limited to users confirming they are 18+ years of age (or age of majority in applicable jurisdictions)
Resolved
YES
Non-US residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
Resolved
YES
Before redeeming any prize, users must complete a Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Verification process that includes proof of 1) valid photo ID, 2) biometric facial scan recognition, 3) proof of address, and 4) validation of SSN
Resolved
YES
Users in New York and Florida cannot redeem more than $5,000 USD in prizes in the defined sweepstakes period

Context: Manifold is pivoting to a new business model based on real cash prizes under a sweepstakes model. In the pivot announcement, Manifold mentioned the social sports betting company Fliff as representative of the sweepstakes model they're pursuing. I read this as "Manifold is to be like Fliff, but for user-generated questions about anything, not just centrally-created/managed questions about sports."

As such, being aware of how Fliff operates should provide insight into how Manifold may operate in the future. So:

In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff by end of year?

Suggest new answers in comments and I'll add them. Initial answers came after my reading of Fliff's Sweepstakes rules, Terms of Use, and functionality described on the Fliff marketing site and in YouTube videos. Ask clarifying questions in comments.

For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are related to implementation of the PivotTM and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.

Any names referring to a thing, (i.e. "Prize Points" for promotional sweepstakes entries, "Mana" for play money) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing, even if the name of that thing changes. I will update answers to reflect new names as soon as I can/am made aware.

Here's a similar question, though I suspect there may be disagreement about whether this pivot is indeed "real money trading":

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answered11mo
Sweepcash Free Collection Method #1: Sweepcash is obtainable for free as a bonus when collecting free Mana
3mo

@jack maybe you can help me here: rules say "(a) Receive Sweepcash for free as an occasional bonus issued at the sole discretion of Manifold. No purchase is required." but I'm not sure if Manifold has offered Sweepcash for collecting free Mana...do you know? (I'm in a restricted geo so can't quite confirm myself).

If I can't figure this out in the next week or so, I'll N/A this answer; all other answers have been resolved.

3mo

@dglid yes, the daily bonus gives both mana and sweepcash, for example.

answered11mo
Sweepcash Free Collection Method #3: Sweepcash is obtainable for free when entering no-cost giveaway contests on Manifold social media pages
bought Ṁ100 Sweepcash Free Colle... YES6mo

@dglid Unclear if this requires more than one contest, but we've had at least one: https://x.com/ManifoldMarkets/status/1839901173224223063

6mo

@kopecs Good call. I’ll count that. Resolved yes.

answered11mo
Sweepcash may be redeemed only every 5 days
6mo

@dglid I think this can also resolve yes:

7.10. We will only process one Prize redemption request per Customer Account in any 5 day period.

6mo

@kopecs Missed that one. Thanks!

answered11mo
Sweepcash expire after 30 days of inactivity (i.e. not logging in)
6mo

This looks like it will resolve NO unless changed by EOY given that term is 90 days, not 30:

2.8. Inactive Accounts. If a Participant deemed inactive or ineligible in the sole discretion of Manifold, Participant will forfeit any balance of Sweepcash. Unless Manifold agrees and decides otherwise, Sweepcash is only valid for ninety (90) days from the date the Participant last logged on to their Customer Account and will thereafter automatically expire. This forfeiture clause does not apply to Sweepcash which has already been used to participate in a Sweepstakes Prediction Game.

answered11mo
Manifold uses Persona (withpersona.com) for identity verification
6mo

Can anyone confirm which identity provider Manifold is using?

6mo

@dglid I think it’s called GambleID

answered11mo
Employees and former employees of Manifold and their immediate family and household members are not eligible to collect Sweepcash
6mo

This looks like it will resolve NO since only employees, and not former employees or immediate family or household members, are ineligible:

1.6. Current Employees of Manaplay LLC ., any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, holding companies, advertising agencies, or any other company or individual who has direct control or involvement with the design, production, execution, settlement, or distribution of the Sweepstakes prediction games are not eligible to participate. Please refer to the Terms and Conditions for further information about other Manifold product offering eligibility.

answered11mo
The sweepstakes period is defined as a single calendar month
6mo

Will resolve NO unless changed by end of year per:

1.8. Sweepstakes Period. The Sweepstakes periods for individual prediction games will be clearly stated on Manifold.

answered11mo
The minimum prize redemption amount (i.e. cashing out Sweepcash) is equivalent to $50 USD
sold Ṁ0 The minimum prize re... YES6mo

This looks like it will resolve NO if not changed by end of year; minimum is $25:

6.5. The minimum redemption of a prize which may be requested by a Participant during any Sweepstakes Period (“Minimum Redemption”) shall be 25 eligible Sweepcash accumulated in your Account as to which the activity necessary for redemption has been satisfied, which currently corresponds to a $25 prize redemption request. Any requested redemption less than the Minimum Redemption shall not be permitted via the Platform or paid to the Participant.

answered11mo
Manifold reserves the right to limit sweepstakes entries or exclude users from participating who they deem as “professional”, “non-recreational” or similar
6mo

Unless the current language changes by EOY, I plan on resolving this NO - the below is more about insider trading than being a "professional".

1.7. The Sweepstakes is open to Participants who do not have access to material, confidential, information that might impact the outcome of a Sweepstakes Prediction game. If a Participant is, in Manifold’s best judgment determined to have access to material, confidential, non-public information, or is using systematic methods to manipulate the Sweepstakes to obtain prizes, Manifold reserves the right to limit entries or exclude the Participant from the Sweepstakes.

answered11mo
Sweepcash collected for free must be used in a game where the odds of winning have an implied probability of 75% or less before eligible for redemption of a prize
6mo

Looks like this will resolve NO; probability must be 99% or less.

3.7. Redemption. Sweepcash obtained by any method in Section 2.2(a)-(d) is not immediately available for redemption of a prize and must be used at least once in a Sweepcash prediction game before it shall be considered eligible toward a prize redemption request; and, any Sweepcash obtained by a Participant by any method in Section 2.2(a)-(c) must be used to make prediction where the odds of winning have an implied probability of 99% or less, before the Sweepcash, if any, won by the Participant in the Sweepcash Game, may be eligible to be redeemed.

answered11mo
Mail requests for free Sweepcash are limited to a maximum of 50 per user
6mo

This looks like it will resolve NO if not changed by end of year; max is 10:

4. For each request a Participant submits, the Participant will at this time receive 1 Sweepcash credit THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF REQUESTS PER PARTICIPANT SHALL BE 10 MAIL IN REQUESTS PER CALENDAR YEAR– ALL REQUESTS IN EXCESS OF 10 PER SWEEPSTAKES PERIOD SHALL BE DEEMED NULL AND VOID, AND SHALL NOT “CARRY OVER” TO ANOTHER CALENDAR YEAR. The Sweepcash awarded via this method will be added to the eligible Participant’s account subject to account verification and compliance in full with this subsection (d).

answered11mo
Mail requests for free Sweepcash are be granted Sweepcash in an amount roughly equivalent to $10 USD each
6mo

This looks like it will resolve NO, as the amount is roughly equivalent to $1 USD each, not $10 USD each:

4. For each request a Participant submits, the Participant will at this time receive 1 Sweepcash credit THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF REQUESTS PER PARTICIPANT SHALL BE 10 MAIL IN REQUESTS PER CALENDAR YEAR– ALL REQUESTS IN EXCESS OF 10 PER SWEEPSTAKES PERIOD SHALL BE DEEMED NULL AND VOID, AND SHALL NOT “CARRY OVER” TO ANOTHER CALENDAR YEAR. The Sweepcash awarded via this method will be added to the eligible Participant’s account subject to account verification and compliance in full with this subsection (d).

answered11mo
Residents of Tennessee are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
6mo

No mention of Tennessee in terms being an excluded jurisdiction. Will resolve NO if not changed by EOY.

answered11mo
Residents of Nevada are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
6mo

No mention of Nevada in terms being an excluded jurisdiction. Will resolve NO if not changed by EOY.

answered11mo
Residents of Hawaii are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
6mo

No mention of Hawaii in terms being an excluded jurisdiction. Will resolve NO if not changed by EOY.

answered11mo
Non-US residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
6mo

Resolves YES per Sweepstakes terms:

1. ELIGIBILITY TO PARTICIPATE
1.1. Manifold Sweepstakes Prediction Games (the “Sweepstakes”) is open only to legal residents located in the states of the United States (excluding Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, and Washington)

answered11mo
Sign up limited to users confirming they are 18+ years of age (or age of majority in applicable jurisdictions)
6mo

Resolves yes per Terms:

3.1. You hereby declare and warrant that:

(a) you are over 18 years of age or such higher minimum age as required by the laws or regulations in the jurisdiction in which you are located at the time of accessing the Service and are, under the laws applicable to you, allowed to participate in the Games offered on the Platform;

@traders I've resolved a lot of these YES after looking through Sweepstakes rules. Any others are left open until end of year in the event they are added, but otherwise will likely resolve NO. I'll comment on a few of these now to provide clarity on which are likely to resolve NO based on current terms.

I've also updated any references in answers to "Prize Points" to "Sweepcash".

answered11mo
Manifold reserves a right to use for promotional/media purposes any of the following details of users participating in sweepstakes: name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory
bought Ṁ100 Manifold reserves a ... YES6mo

@dglid Sweeps Rules 9.1

6mo

@kopecs Not sure why this and my last comment appear (at least to me) to not be on a specific choice, but this is for "Manifold reserves a right to use for promotional/media purposes any of the following details of users participating in sweepstakes: name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory". And the other is for "Manifold reserves a right to consider users in debt to Manifold if Manifold mistakenly awards Prize Points that the user redeems prior to Manifold correcting the mistake".

6mo

@kopecs I see the debt one and have resolved YES, but I'm not seeing any result when searching for the text for the promotional/media purposes one. Can you take a look at the sweepstakes rules and confirm that the text you suggested is no longer there?

6mo

@dglid Yes, they have changed section 9: https://web.archive.org/web/20240918021046/https://docs.manifold.markets/rules

  1. WINNER’S LIST

9.1. Except where prohibited, participation in the Sweepstakes constitutes each Participant’s consent to Manifold's and its agents’ use of Participant’s name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory for promotional purposes in any media, worldwide, without further payment, notice or consideration.

9.2. For a list of winners during a Sweepstakes Period within a year from the date of request, send a request in writing by mail, specify the Month and Year requested (one Sweepstakes Game and Sweepstakes Period per request), and enclose a self-addressed, stamped envelope to:

Manaplay LLC

ATTN: SWEEPSTAKES WINNERS

P.O BOX 170247

San Francisco, CA 94117

6mo

@kopecs Ok thank you I’ll resolve this yes since it was the case at one point. I also see that you could request winner’s list via mail so will resolve that yes too even though that’s no longer the case.

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