In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?
19
116
1.7k
2025
35%
Sign up limited to users confirming they are 18+ years of age (or age of majority in applicable jurisdictions)
95%
The primary type of currency/credit on Manifold is play-money (i.e. Mana, like Fliff Coins)
95%
A second type of currency/credit on Manifold is sweepstakes entries redeemable for real cash prizes (i.e. Prize Points, like Fliff Cash)
46%
A third type of currency/credit exists on Manifold that is similar in nature to Fliff’s Experience Points (XP)
4%
The ratio of Prize Points to USD is 1:1 (like $1 Fliff Cash is redeemable to $1 USD)
30%
There is a game mode toggle that enables users to change between playing "games" with Mana and playing "games" with Prize Points
21%
The minimum prize redemption amount (i.e. cashing out Prize Points) is equivalent to $50 USD
34%
Prize Points may be redeemed only every 5 days
97%
Prize Points do not earn interest
12%
Prize Points expire after 30 days of inactivity (i.e. not logging in)
4%
The majority of “games” on Manifold are about sports
59%
Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Idaho
50%
Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Washington
15%
Non-US residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
90%
Residents of Idaho are not allowed to participate in participate in sweepstakes
90%
Residents of Hawaii are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
90%
Residents of Nevada are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
90%
Residents of Tennessee are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
90%
Residents of Washington are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes
25%
Prize Points Free Collection Method #1: Prize Points are obtainable for free as a bonus when collecting free Mana

Context: Manifold is pivoting to a new business model based on real cash prizes under a sweepstakes model. In the pivot announcement, Manifold mentioned the social sports betting company Fliff as representative of the sweepstakes model they're pursuing. I read this as "Manifold is to be like Fliff, but for user-generated questions about anything, not just centrally-created/managed questions about sports."

As such, being aware of how Fliff operates should provide insight into how Manifold may operate in the future. So:

In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff by end of year?

Suggest new answers in comments and I'll add them. Initial answers came after my reading of Fliff's Sweepstakes rules, Terms of Use, and functionality described on the Fliff marketing site and in YouTube videos. Ask clarifying questions in comments.

For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are related to implementation of the PivotTM and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.

Any names referring to a thing, (i.e. "Prize Points" for promotional sweepstakes entries, "Mana" for play money) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing, even if the name of that thing changes. I will update answers to reflect new names as soon as I can/am made aware.

Here's a similar question, though I suspect there may be disagreement about whether this pivot is indeed "real money trading":

Get Ṁ600 play money
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A second type of currency/credit on Manifold is sweepstakes entries redeemable for real cash prizes (i.e. Prize Points, like Fliff Cash)

2nd currency is now live, but not yet redeemable, so this doesn’t resolve YES yet.

reposted

2nd currency is now live, but not yet redeemable, so this doesn’t resolve YES yet.

I don't really know where to ask this. Fliff is not available in my region (Germany). Can Manifold ensure that users in Germany or other EU countries can continue to use the site with or without sweepstakes after these changes?

Edit: found the Discord.

@redcat The best info we have at this point about non-US availability is this announcement:

Q: Will I be eligible to earn cash prizes outside the US?

A: Probably. There are a few provinces, jurisdictions, and countries that prohibit sweepstakes, but we believe most locales our users reside will be supported.

I'd bet that Manifold will definitely be available in Germany as it does now for use with mana (play money) but depending on legislation there, you may or may not be eligible for the sweepstakes element that would enable you to get mana converted into Prize Points (then redeemable for cash or other prizes).

@dglid Thank you. I'm not interested in the Sweepstakes anyways. I hope you're right.

Best video I saw about Fliff during my research (don't judge, it was a low bar):

reposted

I spent a lot of time studying (and reading legal documentation about) Fliff, inspiration for the Manifold Pivot to a real cash prize model.

I put this market together because I think it provides key insights into how Manifold may function upon implementation of real cash prizes. Take a look!

N/Aing this since it's technically already available to users via Mana share rewards, etc.

Important for privacy-sensitive individuals to know - if you want to ever redeem money from Manifold via sweepstakes, your name could be made publicly available.

Fliff kind of did this and users were super pissed. It set a really bad line, users pounced on it, cashed out, but then Fliff took away their winnings. Not sure if they reversed after the backlash. See:

I presume this is related to IRS requirements around furnishing a 1099 for winnings distributed at or above $600+ in a given year.

I presume this is related to state-specific sweepstakes regulation.

This perhaps my most interesting finding in the legalese - I presume this is how Fliff ensures some claim to randomness in its sweepstakes games. Easy enough to do when it's setting sports lines that presumably are intended to be at 50% likelihood; how would Manifold implement this? Only trades made before market is at 75% can be redeemed for Prize Points? Could get messy...

Non-US residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

These and other "X residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes" are likely direct results of sweepstakes regulation in those states, so unlikely that they won't be in place at Manifold as well, unless Manifold simply doesn't implement sweepstakes by market close.

Prize Points expire after 30 days of inactivity (i.e. not logging in)

I was somewhat surprised to see this in Fliff's terms. Will Manifold be as strict? Might upset casual users who come back a month later to see their Prize Points gone...

The minimum prize redemption amount (i.e. cashing out Prize Points) is equivalent to $50 USD

On Fliff, you have to have earned/won the equivalent of $50 of Fliff Cash before cashing out (i.e. bank transfer).

The ratio of Prize Points to USD is 1:1 (like $1 Fliff Cash is redeemable to $1 USD)
bought Ṁ50 The ratio of Prize P... NO

Pivot announcement suggests ratio will be 1,000:1.

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