[The Pivot] Will Manifold ever give a cash payout from Prize Points [or Sweepstakes]?
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92
Ṁ46k
resolved Oct 9
Resolved
YES
James is confident y’all!
cash payouts should now be possible, but i'm not aware of anyone who has withdrawn yet (and i'd be surprised if anyone did, the only market that resolved had pretty paltry amounts bet). but seems plausible someone might withdraw after the next batch of end-of-month markets resolves
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@Eliza Case reported an "incoming wire" for $190. Had not cleared yet.

Context: Announcement

In the announcement having cash payouts (tied to Prize Points) was flagged as being ambitious. Will this ever come to fruition? Resolves YES on the first user being paid out.

Cash payouts must be tied to Prize Points, not Creator Bonuses (another pay out system), as outlined in the pivot announcement. Market will extend as needed, and Resolve NO on confirmation that this will not be happening.

Edit (post-pivot 2): This market will continue on with “will Manifold ever give a cash payout from Sweepstakes”, as the spiritual successor to Prize Points.

If Sweepstakes are canned before there’s a single user who is paid out in USD for their trading prowess (or luck 🤞), and they come up with another way to attempt to appease the lawyers, this will continue with that.

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@case Did you get the money? We can probably resolve this....several other users have also done CASH_OUT now.

@Eliza I did, it cleared!

@case to confirm, you withdrew Sweepscash for USD?

@mattyb @case can you send along your bank account password so we can confirm? i'm trying to resolve some markets

@mattyb yep! 200 sweepcash for $190 USD

@case ok, that’s sufficient to Resolve this YES

What is manifold's business model for the sweepcash? How are they taking in as much as they are doing out? Are that many people buying mana?

@SentientTree So far they are subsidizing the AMM in these markets with their own money, but most bets are person vs person. They gave away an amount of sweepcash for free to existing users, but most sweepcash going forward will be purchased by users who want to make bets.

They also plan to allow users to supply the liquidity for the AMM on sweepcash markets in the future, but that has not happened yet.

Manifold makes money when people buy mana, and also takes a percentage cut when people withdraw sweepcash.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Eliza Case reported an "incoming wire" for $190. Had not cleared yet.

cash payouts should now be possible, but i'm not aware of anyone who has withdrawn yet (and i'd be surprised if anyone did, the only market that resolved had pretty paltry amounts bet).

but seems plausible someone might withdraw after the next batch of end-of-month markets resolves

bought Ṁ400 NO

Given that Prize Points and normal Mana have been equalised in the new system, I really feel this one should resolve NO. Also given the structure of the 'gift' it doesn't really fit.

  • All types of mana are rendered valueless.

  • Each user gets a gift based on the total value pre-change.

  • This gift can't be cashed out.

  • Only winnings from wagering the gift can be cashed out.

So, all that to say, feels like a NO to me.

@kevor See the comment thread right below, the author already clarified the following:

The spirit of the market would say “yes”, as this would be a real money payout from trading well on some “prestige” types of markets. I’ll go with YES

@kevor @jack updated

bought Ṁ350 NO

@mattyb does it have to be named as Prize Points, or does another currency count?

adding to this line of thought: what if prize points are converted into said new currency?

Good questions... my inclination is that a simple renaming obviously counts (same way that Google == Alphabet), a simple conversion probably counts, and if it's a substantially different system that still gives cash payouts then who knows.

Anyway, I have a market you can bet on that's clearer :)

yea, if there’s a spiritual successor to PP that does the same function, this will continue on with that

@mattyb What if the new currency is completely separate from mana?

@nikki hmmm, that’s a good question. The spirit of the market would say “yes”, as this would be a real money payout from trading well on some “prestige” types of markets. I’ll go with YES

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@mattyb Thanks for the clarification, can you please update the title/description?

@mods needs an extension

What's taking so long?

bought Ṁ200 YES

Arb:

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