MANIFOLD
Browse
About
App
Sign up
Get
1,000
to start trading!
Discord
Dark
Light
(auto)
Sign in
OpenAI
Deepseek
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
GPT-5 Capabilities
Manifold AI
TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
~deleted~
4.4k
GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
Yes
No
Open options
72%
Video modality(Input or Output)
Yes
No
Open options
96%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
Yes
No
Open options
96%
Image Modality(Output)
Yes
No
Open options
See 12 more answers
98
Ṁ4375
~deleted~
2.2k
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
182
Ṁ2240
CuriousNoob
1k
Will OpenAI's next-gen math-focused model score at least 95% on the MATH benchmark?
NO
27
Ṁ1000
Luca
1k
Will OpenAI Release a Model Capable of Reliably performing Gradeschool Math from Reasoning by Jan 1, 2025?
79%
chance
36
Ṁ1000
~deleted~
240
Will Gary Marcus dunk on OpenAI's next big model release by saying that the model still fails in predictable ways?
84%
chance
8
Ṁ240
Mira
1k
Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?
86%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
50
Ṁ1000
Adrian
1k
Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?
22%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
35
Ṁ1000
~deleted~
3.1k
Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)
16%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
94
Ṁ3070
Victor Li
1k
Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?
95%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
44
Ṁ1000
CuriousNoob
1k
Will OpenAI's next-generation model score 65% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
YES
13
Ṁ1000
See more questions:
© Manifold Markets, Inc.
•
Terms
+
Mana-only Terms
•
Privacy
•
Rules
Browse
Explore
About
Sign in