Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025? | Manifold

Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?

GPT-5 Capabilities Technical AI Timelines IMO Grand Challenge GPT-5 Speculation IMO

Basic

31

Ṁ10k

2025

27%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

GPT-5 with scaffolding or access to tools counts as long as GPT-5 is making real decisions.

Resolves No if GPT-5 doesn’t score Bronze or higher, or if it does not does not exist by then, or nobody makes an IMO attempt by the end of August 2025

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Is it fine if it’s a math-specialized version of GPT-5 (involving math-specific post training consisting of, say, <5% of pretraining compute)?

Yeah that sounds reasonable

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Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

Will an AI win a gold medal on IMO 2025?

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Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

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Will GPT-5 have a rating of at least 2000 in chess?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?

Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Will GPT-5 be announced in 2024?