
Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?
40
1kṀ12kSep 1
32%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
GPT-5 with scaffolding or access to tools counts as long as GPT-5 is making real decisions.
Resolves No if GPT-5 doesn’t score Bronze or higher, or if it does not does not exist by then, or nobody makes an IMO attempt by the end of August 2025
Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - o3 or future o series models do not count as GPT-5 for this question. Models called GPT-4x would not count. If OpenAI abandons the GPT-X naming scheme and comes out with a new flagship model to replace GPT-4 that's not part of the o series, that counts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
44% chance
Will GPT-5 qualify for the USAMO?
54% chance
Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
91% chance
Which country will win the 2025 IMO?
Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2025?
1% chance
Will an AI publicly accessible before IMO 2025 get the gold medal on it?
12% chance
AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025?
Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi?
91% chance
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
13% chance
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
74% chance