Since others can add in their predictions, I will use a combination of their opinion about resolution and my subjective judgement to resolve the predictions. I will not trade (other than to make token predictions with Ṁ1 ).
For resolution of predictions: Resolves YES to those that are more or less correct (in spirit) or to 50% (if technically true but not in spirit) or to NO (if not true). N/A if irrelevant.
If GPT-5 is not launched this decade, market's state will be resolved to N/A. You can trade on whether or not that happens here:
Related questions
@Shump or @firstuserhere how do you plan to resolve this if they don't speak much to the architecture?
@RobertCousineau I'm going to defer to the prediction's author (here @Shump ) by default for this market unless controversy ensues/author inactive/ doesnt clarify
etc
@RobertCousineau @firstuserhere I'd change the description to New Architecture Announced and resolve NO if they don't say anything. Can N/A on that but that just seems less interesting.
I wrote this months ago and honestly I now regret something so vague, but I'd define new as something substantially different than the current norm. So for example replacing tranformers is an obvious YES, while using Flashattention, which is just a different implementation is NO. I am still here so I can rule on it if needed.
@Shump Wdym less interesting? Isn't N/A the standard of doing things in such cases? If there was a different market on whether they'll disclose details about their new models, I'd bet no.
@jack No. Audio/video modalities can be input or output. But GPT-4 already has image input, so it would be nothing new if GPT-5 also does image input.
Video is also a different thing from "ability to take multiple images as input".