GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions
100
4.4kṀ68342031
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
72%
Video modality(Input or Output)
96%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
96%
Image Modality(Output)
92%
Context size >= 200k
73%
Context size >= 500k
51%
Context size >= 1000k
32%
Context size >= 2000k
22%
Online learning(agent finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)
53%
Exact query of custom knowledge datasets(e.g. Google RETRO, where users can provide their own datasets)
15%
Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price will be lower)
77%
Able to solve easy Sudoku puzzles with prompting
33%
New Neural Network Architecture
19%
Capable of online learning
24%
Able to precisely count the amount of triangles there is in a image of non-overlapping radomly placed shapes(for images with less than 50 shapes)
80%
Would qualify for AIME given screenshots of the AMC 10 questions, from the AMC 10 released soonest after GPT-5 release
Since others can add in their predictions, I will use a combination of their opinion about resolution and my subjective judgement to resolve the predictions. I will not trade (other than to make token predictions with Ṁ1 ).
For resolution of predictions: Resolves YES to those that are more or less correct (in spirit) or to 50% (if technically true but not in spirit) or to NO (if not true). N/A if irrelevant.
If GPT-5 is not launched this decade, market's state will be resolved to N/A. You can trade on whether or not that happens here:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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