Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?
28
closes 2030
68%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial GPT-5 model, when released by OpenAI, was trained with over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO.

If OpenAI ceases to exist, publicly confirms there will not be a GPT-5, or it hasn't been released by 2030, this market resolves NA. If OpenAI is acquired or merges, "OpenAI" refers to the new company.

"Initial GPT-5 model" refers to the first release of GPT-5 by OpenAI, not including subsequent updates, variants, or distillations:

  1. Distillations: If GPT-5 has variants that are distilled into having fewer parameters, these do not affect the market resolution.

  2. Subsequent variants: If new variants in the GPT-5 series are trained with more parameters after the initial release, these do not count toward the resolution.

  3. Naming: GPT-5 must be publicly recognized as such by OpenAI. If it is called "GPT-5" internally, but has a public name like GPT-4.5, it doesn't count.

  4. If OpenAI trains multiple GPT-5 variants but staggers their releases, any of them is acceptable as long as they are announced together.

Confirmation of the number of parameters in the initial GPT-5 model must come from an official source, such as:

  1. OpenAI or Microsoft

  2. Current or former executives of OpenAI or Microsoft

  3. Current or former employees of OpenAI or Microsoft directly involved in the development of GPT-5

A journalist can serve as an acceptable proxy for an official source, provided that:

  1. The information clearly originates from an official source.

  2. The information is not based on rumors or unofficial statements.

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R2D2 avatar
R2D2bought Ṁ89 of YES

I hope you're not really going to wait until 2031 to close this

Mira avatar
Mirabought Ṁ0 of YES

@R2D2 If the number of parameters is confirmed earlier, I'll resolve early. If no information comes out until 2030, I'll leave it open until then.

The longer timescale is because with GPT-4 they announced they aren't sharing architectural details, so it may take longer for that information to get out.

Loans make every market more than a month out equivalent in time value anyways, especially if NA would be the resolution with lack of information.

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