Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
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1kṀ95kresolved Jan 1
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The United States has a history of government shutdowns. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few hours and did not furlough government workers, and so would not count.
This question resolves YES if a government shutdown involving furloughed workers happens, and otherwise resolves NO when the year ends (midnight EST).
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Shutdown? More like the shitdown!!! Resolving this market to Manifold standards or I will be coming after it legaltistically speaking!
bought Ṁ50 NO from 59% to 56% 3mo
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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