What do they have on him? Is he worried his Viagra prescription is going to be leaked to the public?

Soft.

It would be a massive own goal for Republicans to control all branches of federal government and have a government shutdown, so naturally it's over 50%.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/20/us/government-shutdown-trump-news?smid=nytcore-android-share

>President Biden is expected to sign the measure, which would extend funding into mid-March and approve disaster relief for parts of the nation still recovering from storms. The White House said early Saturday that it was not instituting a government shutdown, even though funding to run the government technically ran out at midnight.

Hmm. Isn't this reduced into a game of chicken? For instance nothing on 2023 anymore

House Speaker Johnson said: “You’ve got shutdowns and you've got real shutdowns. A shutdown for many hours over Saturday doesn’t actually impact the lives of any human being living on the planet. “

Will all the shutdown markets treat an hours long shutdown that doesn't really have an impact as a shutdown?

@ChristopherRandles see pinned comment.

Why does this say up top it closes December 31?

@MartinRandall Should this market close date be extended?

sorry, I assumed so and extended, but gabrielle is right to ask.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'm just extending it each year until it resolves.

We keep surviving 50% shutdown chances. Don't get complacent...

@MartinRandall will you be resolving the 2023 option to NO now, or is this the kind of market that all options would only resolve together? Thanks!

@AnonUser I'm not currently able to resolve a single answer no, but will as soon as I can

@AnonUser This is not a multi binary unlinked market so you cant. It is a multiple choice linked dependent market.

It is the Holiday Season. We saw this before. If the Senate does not like it than they will come up with something to "kick the can down the road" until after they return Full Time in early 2024.

Selling 1% arbitrages. I'll buy 16k YES on 2023 here at 3% and 16k NO on 2023 at 2% in a different market. That's risk-free money for you for exploiting my incoherent beliefs.

interesting to develop intersecting probabilities of what occurs during the 118th congress:

I have put up a 10k limit order at 59% on Yes. It will last for 1 month.

How is 2023 + 2024 so close to 100%? Do people believe that if there's no shutdown in 2023, then there's basically guaranteed to be one in 2024?

@DanielTilkin Yes, that's what people think. 1% chance of 2025 or later. I guess people expect that a 2023 deal is likely to only go as far as 2024 and then there will be election year pressure on politicians to not compromise. American voters routinely tell pollsters that they only like compromise when the other side does it. One of the ways in which the country gets the government it votes for.

@DanielTilkin Maybe this is abundantly obvious to everyone reading this, but this market doesn’t imply a X% chance of year Y. It implies an X% chance that [no shutdown happens any year preceding year Y and then a shutdown on year Y.]

@DanielTilkin nice call

@SemioticRivalry I should have bought more!