Next US government shutdown (with furlough)
401
5.7kṀ300k
resolved Oct 2
100%99.3%
2025
0.3%
2023
0.3%
2024
0.0%
2026
0.0%
2027
0.0%
2028
0.0%
2029
0.0%
2030s
0.0%
2040s
0.0%
Not before 2050

When is the next US government shutdown which lead to employee furloughs?

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST): The market will remain open and be extended each year until a government shutdown occurs. (AI summary of creator comment)

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From linked Wikipedia:

This list includes only major funding gaps which led to actual employee furloughs within federal departments of the US government. It does not include funding gaps that did not involve shutdowns of government departments

This question should resolve similarly.

@MartinRandall is it time to resolve? Thanks!

sold Ṁ20 NO

@AnonUser @MartinRandall

Sounds like at least some furloughs started at midday:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/clylje0rmp2t

We were told at the White House that non-essential workers would be furloughed starting at midday.

A stakeout camera is trained on the Eisenhower Executive Office building steps to capture federal workers leaving now it is past the deadline.

A large group walked out at about 12:06pm local time (17:06 BST). One staffer remained at the top of the stairs and waved to members of the group as they left before turning and going back inside.

A second group exited about a minute later.

@mods could you please resolve? Thank you!

@AnonUser I'm here, sorry for delay

Here we go again.

What do they have on him? Is he worried his Viagra prescription is going to be leaked to the public?

Soft.

bought Ṁ20 YES

It would be a massive own goal for Republicans to control all branches of federal government and have a government shutdown, so naturally it's over 50%.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/20/us/government-shutdown-trump-news?smid=nytcore-android-share

>President Biden is expected to sign the measure, which would extend funding into mid-March and approve disaster relief for parts of the nation still recovering from storms. The White House said early Saturday that it was not instituting a government shutdown, even though funding to run the government technically ran out at midnight.

Hmm. Isn't this reduced into a game of chicken? For instance nothing on 2023 anymore

House Speaker Johnson said: “You’ve got shutdowns and you've got real shutdowns. A shutdown for many hours over Saturday doesn’t actually impact the lives of any human being living on the planet. “

Will all the shutdown markets treat an hours long shutdown that doesn't really have an impact as a shutdown?

@ChristopherRandles see pinned comment.

bought Ṁ5 NO

Why does this say up top it closes December 31?

@MartinRandall Should this market close date be extended?

sorry, I assumed so and extended, but gabrielle is right to ask.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'm just extending it each year until it resolves.

We keep surviving 50% shutdown chances. Don't get complacent...

@MartinRandall will you be resolving the 2023 option to NO now, or is this the kind of market that all options would only resolve together? Thanks!

@AnonUser I'm not currently able to resolve a single answer no, but will as soon as I can

@AnonUser This is not a multi binary unlinked market so you cant. It is a multiple choice linked dependent market.

It is the Holiday Season. We saw this before. If the Senate does not like it than they will come up with something to "kick the can down the road" until after they return Full Time in early 2024.

Selling 1% arbitrages. I'll buy 16k YES on 2023 here at 3% and 16k NO on 2023 at 2% in a different market. That's risk-free money for you for exploiting my incoherent beliefs.

interesting to develop intersecting probabilities of what occurs during the 118th congress:

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