314
2.6K
5.7K
Dec 31
0.4%
2023
20%
2024
29%
2025
8%
2026
8%
2027
8%
2028
5%
2029
18%
2030s
1.8%
2040s
2%
Not before 2050

When is the next US government shutdown?

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We keep surviving 50% shutdown chances. Don't get complacent...

bought Ṁ138 of 2023 NO

@MartinRandall will you be resolving the 2023 option to NO now, or is this the kind of market that all options would only resolve together? Thanks!

@AnonUser I'm not currently able to resolve a single answer no, bit will as soon as I can

@AnonUser This is not a multi binary unlinked market so you cant. It is a multiple choice linked dependent market.

It is the Holiday Season. We saw this before. If the Senate does not like it than they will come up with something to "kick the can down the road" until after they return Full Time in early 2024.

bought Ṁ0 of 2023 YES

Selling 1% arbitrages. I'll buy 16k YES on 2023 here at 3% and 16k NO on 2023 at 2% in a different market. That's risk-free money for you for exploiting my incoherent beliefs.

bought Ṁ5 of 2024 YES

interesting to develop intersecting probabilities of what occurs during the 118th congress:

bought Ṁ0 of 2023 YES

I have put up a 10k limit order at 59% on Yes. It will last for 1 month.

sold Ṁ5 of 2025 YES

How is 2023 + 2024 so close to 100%? Do people believe that if there's no shutdown in 2023, then there's basically guaranteed to be one in 2024?

@DanielTilkin Yes, that's what people think. 1% chance of 2025 or later. I guess people expect that a 2023 deal is likely to only go as far as 2024 and then there will be election year pressure on politicians to not compromise. American voters routinely tell pollsters that they only like compromise when the other side does it. One of the ways in which the country gets the government it votes for.

@DanielTilkin Maybe this is abundantly obvious to everyone reading this, but this market doesn’t imply a X% chance of year Y. It implies an X% chance that [no shutdown happens any year preceding year Y and then a shutdown on year Y.]

@DanielTilkin nice call

@SemioticRivalry I should have bought more!

From linked Wikipedia:

This list includes only major funding gaps which led to actual employee furloughs within federal departments of the US government. It does not include funding gaps that did not involve shutdowns of government departments

This question should resolve similarly.