14th Ammendment

Will any state disqualify Trump from the 2024 primaries?NO

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?NO

#2024 US Presidential Election

[Metaculus] Will Donald Trump be blocked from any state primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?5% chance

Will Donald Trump be barred from the ballot in any state pursuant to the 14th Amendment before the 2024 election?6% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

There will be a supreme court case about the 14th ammendment's ability to disqualify candidates before the 2024 electionYES

#14thAmendmentSection3

Will Donald Trump be banned from running for President under the insurrection clause of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?13% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule, by 1/20/2025, that Trump is disqualified to be President under the 14th Amendment?4% chance

#Trump disqualified from running

#Republican Party

Will the US Supreme Court rule by Election Day 2024 that Trump is eligible to run for President of the United States?YES

Will any Democrat Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?NO

Will the Colorado Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?NO

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will any nominee for the 2024 presidential election be removed from the ballot before the election?32% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will the US Supreme Court intervene to stop any state from keeping Trump off the ballot?YES

#2024 US Presidential Election

#Republican Party

Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot? YES

#Republican Party

Will the California Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?NO