Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?
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resolved Mar 6
Resolved
NO

There are a number of organizations moving to disqualify candidates for participating in the Jan 6th 2021 riot at the US Capitol using section 3 of 14th Amendment to the US Constitution which reads:

"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

The clause was used to bar members of the Confederacy from elected office after the civil war. There is support for citing this clause to bar candidates from the upcoming presidential election from both liberal and conservative groups. Two conservative law professors who are active members of the Federalist Society have determined that, "If the public record is accurate, the case is not even close. [Donald Trump] is no longer eligible to the office of Presidency, or any other state or federal office covered by the Constitution."

Sources:

Trump Disqualification Tracker

Trump Court Dates

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/illinois-trump-removed-ballot-insurrectionist-ban/index.html

https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/299759/20240205133618970_23-719%20Trump%20v%20Anderson%20Petitioner%20Reply%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf

https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/trump-supreme-court-colorado-ballot-reply-brief-rcna137338

https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/01/29/supreme-court-briefs-trump-colorado/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-superior-court-primary-ballot-eligibility-supreme-court/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-appeal-secretary-of-state-2024-ballot/

https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/01/04/jena-griswold-colorado-secretary-of-state-trump-supreme-court-ruling-appeal-sot-nn-vpx.cnn

https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-keep-him-on-2024-colorado-ballot/

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-20/colorado-ruling-disqualifying-trump-won-t-be-upheld-by-supreme-court?srnd=undefined

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4086124-activists-want-to-disqualify-trump-from-ballot-in-key-states-under-14th-amendment/

https://www.vox.com/23828477/trump-2024-14th-amendment-banned

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-barred-office-incite-insurrection-14th-amendment-1812648

https://www.hollandsentinel.com/story/opinion/letters/2021/02/27/states-can-still-ban-trump-ballot-2024/6838732002/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlOksxijRSc&ab_channel=MSNBC

Resolution Criteria:

Resolves YES if any candidates for president are disqualified, excluded from or removed from the ballots of any states in the US Republican Presidential primaries or the US presidential general election in 2024. The candidate must be disqualified on election day.

The market will resolve as YES as soon as an election occurs where a candidate has been excluded or disqualified. The market will resolve during the primaries if it happens during the primaries.

Resolves NO Nov 5th if disqualification, exclusion or removal from ballots never occurs.

Resolves N/A if the candidate(s) in question drop out of the race or remove themselves from the ballot prior to being disqualified.

This market focuses on the willingness and/or ability to uphold the 14th Amendment. It is not intended to answer the question "Was Jan 6th an insurrection?" but anyone that moves to disqualify a candidate will need to establish this along with the candidate's participation.

Calendar of Notable Dates [Source]

02/08/24 - Colorado 14A: SCOTUS Oral Arguments [Waiting for Decision]

03/04/24 - SCOTUS Colorado 14A Decision Expected

03/05/24 - Super Tuesday: Maine, Massachusetts & Colorado Primary Elections

03/19/24 - Illinois Primary

03/25/24 - NY Election Interference Case Begins

07/30/24 - Trump DC Insurrection Case Begins [Pending Loss on SCOTUS Immunity Appeal]

08/05/24 - GA Case Begins

11/05/24 - US Presidential General Election

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It seems clear that SCOTUS unanimously believes that only the federal government has the authority to disqualify a candidate for federal office. I think this question has been answered. Resolving NO.

@Snarflak The opinions all seem to agree that states don't have the authority to enforce qualification restrictions for federal elections. I'll have more time to read through it tonight. I'm leaning towards closing this market but I'll leave it open for now.

Trump's legal team published their reply brief yesterday and they've clearly laid out their legal strategy. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/299759/20240205133618970_23-719%20Trump%20v%20Anderson%20Petitioner%20Reply%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf

bought Ṁ300 of YES

Market is currently strongly underestimating the originalist commitments of SCOTUS and the strength of the originalist case.

predicted YES
predicted YES

Why has this been pushed down since early January?

predicted YES

@makeworld It's a very emotionally charged question.

You might want to look at other markets on related events. @PatrickDelaney has some good analysis and notes on the upcoming SCOTUS case.

predicted YES

The Maine decision was put on hold pending the SCOTUS Colorado 14A decision. Trump will appear on Maine's Republican primary ballot as a qualified candidate unless SCOTUS rules that he is ineligible before March 5th.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-superior-court-primary-ballot-eligibility-supreme-court/

I'm confused about the resolution criteria.

"The candidate's name must not be present on the ballot on election day."

seems to conflict with

"Colorado and Maine both have their presidential primary scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5th. If Trump is disqualified from either ballot at 12am on March 5th, I will close the market to new trades at that time and will resolve the market as soon as the polls close that night."

If Trump were disqualified on March 4th his name would 100% be on the ballot on election day, because ballots are printed ahead of time.

Does "not be present on the ballot" mean "votes for the candidate won't be counted" or does it mean literally "their name is not printed on the ballot"?

predicted YES

@Vocateur You're right there is a conflict there that I missed. I'm not interested in semantic arguments so I'll be changing the resolution to read "The candidate must be disqualified on election day." Thanks for pointing that out.

@becauseyoudo Thanks so much! Agreed that that's the more meaningful question, people aren't nearly as interested in ballot-printing minutia!

predicted YES

"...the court put its ruling on hold until Jan. 4, 2024 – the deadline for the secretary of state to certify the ballot – to give the U.S. Supreme Court time to weigh in. And it noted that as long as either Trump or the Colorado Republican Party, which like Trump had joined the lawsuit to defend his right to appear on the ballot, sought review in the Supreme Court by the Jan. 4 deadline, the secretary “will continue to be required to include President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot, until the receipt of any order or mandate from the Supreme Court.”"

https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-keep-him-on-2024-colorado-ballot/

Trump is still on the ballot in Colorado until SCOTUS has a chance to review the case.

predicted YES

Here's the Colorado Secretary of State explaining the rules for "disqualified" candidates in the state who's names might still appear on the ballot.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/01/04/jena-griswold-colorado-secretary-of-state-trump-supreme-court-ruling-appeal-sot-nn-vpx.cnn

bought Ṁ25 of YES

we got Maine too now

predicted YES

@Marnix applies only to the primary election, but yes

predicted YES

@Marnix Maine's presidential primary is also on March 5th.

predicted YES

An N/A resolution is no longer possible so I've removed it from the resolution criteria.

predicted YES

Just to clarify:

Anticipating Trump’s appeal, the Colorado justices paused their ruling until January 4. Once Trump inevitably asks the justices to review the ruling, the Colorado court’s pause will be extended until the nation’s highest court announces whether it will take the case – and, if it does, until it hands down its final decision. That means the US Supreme Court could be determining what happens more for the general election, not the primary ballot.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/20/politics/trump-supreme-court-2024-election/index.html

predicted YES

EDIT: It looks like Colorado will still be allowing Trump's name to be on the primary ballot because they have stuck with the interpretation that the Republican nomination is not an "office" as defined in the constitution. The market doesn't look like it will have a resolution until Nov 5th 2024.

predicted YES

@becauseyoudo What are you talking about?

predicted YES

@becauseyoudo Where does it say that at?

I’ve been trying to look for an article, but I can't find one that says he was put back on

predicted YES

@BTE There was one NBC news story that suggested that he wasn't being barred from the primary.

Here's the Colorado Supreme Court Filing: https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf

I'll read through it and make any adjustments in the next few days.

Either way, I'm going to follow the guidance I've already set. If his name isn't on the ballot for the primary on March 5th, this market will resolve YES.

predicted YES

@becauseyoudo from page 132: "The district court erred by concluding that Section Three does not apply to the President. We therefore reverse the district court’s judgment. As stated above, however, we affirm much of the district court’s reasoning on other issues. Accordingly, we conclude that because President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three, it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Secretary to list President Trump as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot. Therefore, the Secretary may not list President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot, nor may she count any write-in votes cast for him."

predicted YES

@becauseyoudo So guess he’s still not gonna be on the ballot?

Wish that wasn't true, messed up if you ask me.

But then again, I do like my mana

predicted YES
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