There are a number of organizations moving to disqualify candidates for participating in the Jan 6th 2021 riot at the US Capitol using section 3 of 14th Amendment to the US Constitution which reads:
"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."
The clause was used to bar members of the Confederacy from elected office after the civil war. There is support for citing this clause to bar candidates from the upcoming presidential election from both liberal and conservative groups. Two conservative law professors who are active members of the Federalist Society have determined that, "If the public record is accurate, the case is not even close. [Donald Trump] is no longer eligible to the office of Presidency, or any other state or federal office covered by the Constitution."
Sources:
Trump Disqualification Tracker
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/illinois-trump-removed-ballot-insurrectionist-ban/index.html
https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/01/29/supreme-court-briefs-trump-colorado/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-superior-court-primary-ballot-eligibility-supreme-court/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-appeal-secretary-of-state-2024-ballot/
https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-keep-him-on-2024-colorado-ballot/
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
https://www.vox.com/23828477/trump-2024-14th-amendment-banned
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-barred-office-incite-insurrection-14th-amendment-1812648
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlOksxijRSc&ab_channel=MSNBC
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES if any candidates for president are disqualified, excluded from or removed from the ballots of any states in the US Republican Presidential primaries or the US presidential general election in 2024. The candidate must be disqualified on election day.
The market will resolve as YES as soon as an election occurs where a candidate has been excluded or disqualified. The market will resolve during the primaries if it happens during the primaries.
Resolves NO Nov 5th if disqualification, exclusion or removal from ballots never occurs.
Resolves N/A if the candidate(s) in question drop out of the race or remove themselves from the ballot prior to being disqualified.
This market focuses on the willingness and/or ability to uphold the 14th Amendment. It is not intended to answer the question "Was Jan 6th an insurrection?" but anyone that moves to disqualify a candidate will need to establish this along with the candidate's participation.
Calendar of Notable Dates [Source]
02/08/24 - Colorado 14A: SCOTUS Oral Arguments [Waiting for Decision]
03/04/24 - SCOTUS Colorado 14A Decision Expected
03/05/24 - Super Tuesday: Maine, Massachusetts & Colorado Primary Elections
03/19/24 - Illinois Primary
03/25/24 - NY Election Interference Case Begins
07/30/24 - Trump DC Insurrection Case Begins [Pending Loss on SCOTUS Immunity Appeal]
08/05/24 - GA Case Begins
11/05/24 - US Presidential General Election
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