Will any nominee for the 2024 presidential election be removed from the ballot before the election?
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2025
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chance

For example, Joe Biden is nominated and then dies, or Donald Trump is nominated but then a court bans him from running or he chooses to withdraw.

Only counts nominees from the democrats and republicans, not third parties. Being removed in any state is sufficient to resolve YES. If the candidate is physically on the ballot but everyone knows they can't win no matter how many votes they get (e.g. they died 1 day before the election and the ballots were already printed), that's also sufficient to resolve this to YES.

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bought Ṁ50 of YES

This just happened ?

“The sum of these parts is this: President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three; because he is disqualified, it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Secretary to list him as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot.

We do not reach these conclusions lightly. We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.”

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Odoacre He’s not the nominee yet

Interesting. Well, if he's nominated anyway, and the disqualification is not revoked prior to that point, I guess this resolves YES.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@IsaacKing The Colorado Supreme Court's decision is about the primary, but based on the fact that this question is about the "nominee" i.e. the person who won the primary, I assumed "the ballot" meant the general election ballot. Is that not the case?

predicts YES

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge Oh whoops, you're right. Yeah this is about the main election, not a primary.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

For the US presidential election, and removed in any state?

@Joshua Presidential election, yes.

Does it seem likely that someone would be removed in one state and not another? Has that happened before?

predicts NO

I believe the decision is made on a state level so it's possible, I don't know if it's ever happened to a major party candidate though.

@Joshua Edited.

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