Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as "Yes" if, on July 15, 2024:
Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.
The question will resolve as "No" if these conditions are not met as of July 15, 2024.
Note: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur after the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's primary election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of July 15, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a ballot and then reinstated, such that as of July 15th he is not removed or blocked from any ballot, the question resolves negatively.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.
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maine just today https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/maine-kicks-trump-off-ballot-under-14th-amendment-00133294
@JamesFair "The ruling will be placed on hold until January 4, pending Trumpโs appeal to the US Supreme Court, which could settle the matter for the nation." ain't no way this stays in place until the resolve date
This one makes an interesting arb given it names the Donald specifically, so in the unlikely (but still sitting at ~20% ish) chance that he fails to become the republican nominee, it then resolves no by default, unless he does run as a third party and gets blocked.
I'm not quite mathy enough this morning to work out how those odds from other markets interact, but I feel like a small NO bet here is probably safe enough.