resolved Mar 8

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is disqualified and excluded from or removed from the ballots of any states in the US Republican Presidential primaries for 2024. Includes caucuses and such.

If there are appeals, injunctions, etc, this resolves based on the final decision.

Resolves NO otherwise.

I will not bet further on this question and I have no position on it.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

Scotus is the final decision maker and I don't know of any path for a state to bypass that decision at this time. If there is a secession or something wild I guess I'll reopen.

bought Ṁ500 NO

It’s over folks

predicted NO

Why is this being bought back down? People think colorado won’t follow through?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DylanSlagh Read the description


If there are appeals, injunctions, etc, this resolves based on the final decision.

and from the below-linked article:

Mr. Trump will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, his campaign said in a statement.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon @chrisjbillington so i suppose this news was expected? The market barely changed at all

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I wasn't expecting it, but now I know it happened I'm certain the supreme court will overrule it.

predicted YES

@Joshua That would be counter to their judicial philosophy. And why do people think they like Donald Trump at all?? They have never once protected him from anything.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@chrisjbillington Please buy as much NO as you can so I can make the comeback of the year.

2 traders bought Ṁ200 NO
predicted NO

@BTE reminder that limit orders exist

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@Joshua forgive my ignorance, but the primary process isn’t enshrined in the constitution, why would the supreme court overrule a states decision?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@DylanSlagh They won’t. They definitely won’t override what is indisputably in the constitution.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I've know some markets y'all should bet in then


Please buy as much NO as you can so I can make the comeback of the year.

Nah, 21% for Jul next year isn't worth it. Maybe after EOY when I have more mana than markets to bet on.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@BTE If you’re that confident, and I have no reason to think you’re not, shouldn’t you take a loan to guarantee the comeback of the century? Surely at 21% there’s a lot of mana for you to be made.

@DylanSlagh The Colorado Supreme Court didn't rule that Colorado state law regarding primaries disqualified Trump from appearing on the primary ballot. They ruled that the US Constitution, 14th Amendment, Section 3, disqualified Trump from the Presidency, and that as a consequence of that disqualification he was ineligible to appear on the state primary ballot.

Thus, according to the ruling of the Colorado Supreme Court, Trump getting kicked off the ballot is not a matter of Colorado state law, but a matter of federal Constitutional law. And cases of federal Constitutional law are ultimately a matter for the federal courts ("arising under this Constitution", Article III, Section 2, Clause 1). It is relatively ordinary and entirely proper for the Supreme Court of the United States to decide if a state supreme court correctly understood the US Constitution.

So, the question before the US Supreme Court (in the case that it chooses to hear it) will not be one of Colorado state primary ballot access law. It will be simply what the 14th Amendment, Section 3 of the US Constitution means in the case of Donald Trump.

Now, if the US Supreme Court determines the Colorado Supreme Court got the meaning of that part of the US Constitution wrong in the case of Donald Trump, then the case goes back to the Colorado Supreme Court to decide, in accordance with the ruling of SCOTUS as to what the US Constitution means. That would almost certainly result in Trump being allowed on the ballot, since Colorado state law does not have separate "Did the candidate participate in an insurrection" disqualification provisions.

predicted YES

Trump Is Disqualified From the 2024 Ballot, Colorado Supreme Court Rules

It’s the first court to find that the disqualification clause of the 14th Amendment applies to former President Trump.

bought Ṁ100 of YES


if people in jail can still run (no where does it say they can't) then yes, he will run

predicted YES


predicted YES

Much weaker version of this topic:

The market below resolves based on state action only, not the courts. It should be higher than this market IMO, assuming the time limit (July 15) is reasonable.

@makeworld "If there are appeals, injunctions, etc, this resolves based on the final decision."

Edit: oh, I see you mean that the other market doesn't include court reversals

More related questions