Manifold 2024 Election Forecast

Live prediction market odds on the US election

2024 US Presidential Election

Trump

55%

Harris

42%

Biden

1.1%

Vance

0.4%

Kennedy

0.3%

M. Obama

0.2%

Newsom

0.1%

Whitmer

0.1%

14 more

Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Republican Party

55%

Democratic Party

45%

Republican Party

55%

Democratic Party

45%

33%

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2024 US presidential election?

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

33%

R President, R Senate, D House

17%

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

17%

See 5 more answers

Will Joe Biden announce that he is both dropping out and resigning from the presidency before the end of July?

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?

53%

Will Biden finish his term?

82%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?

46%

Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?

77%

Netanyahu Address to Joint Session of Congress Prop Bets [ADD RESPONSES]

Hebrew word(s) spoken by Netanyahu

98.1%

"Rape" said by Netanyahu

98%

More than 5 minutes of applause

97%

See 17 more answers

What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?

Fine of at least $10,000,000

Prison time

Fine of at least $1,000,000

13%

See 6 more answers

Which party will win the US Presidency?

270 to win

Swing States

Democratic

Republican

Michigan

DEM

53%

REP

47%

Wisconsin

DEM

50%

REP

50%

Pennsylvania

DEM

49%

REP

51%

Georgia

DEM

42%

REP

58%

Nevada

DEM

42%

REP

58%

Arizona

DEM

41%

REP

59%

Presidential Nomination

Democratic

Harris

98%

Kennedy

0.5%

Clinton

0.4%

See 12 more

Republican

Trump

99%

DeSantis

Haley

0.9%

See 1 more

Democratic

Harris

98%

Kennedy

0.5%

Clinton

0.4%

See 12 more

Republican

Trump

99%

DeSantis

Haley

0.9%

See 1 more

Democratic vice presidential nomination

Shapiro

31%

+8% today

Kelly

30%

-10% today

Cooper

11%

Walz

Beshear

+3% today

Buttigieg

M. Obama

McRaven

23 more

Who would win if they were the Democratic nominee?

Beshear

57%

Shapiro

54%

Buttigieg

48%

Whitmer

47%

Harris

46%

-4% today

Newsom

44%

2 more

What will happen if...

Trump wins

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

Trump wins

79%

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

79%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Trump wins

66%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

66%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

Trump wins

48%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

48%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Trump wins

44%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

44%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Trump wins

57%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

57%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

Trump wins

61%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

61%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

Trump wins

59%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

59%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

Trump wins

47%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

47%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

Trump wins

29%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

29%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Trump wins

47%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

47%

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

Trump wins

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?