This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

 if it secures a majority of voting seats.

A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus.

 is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ 

No final decision has been made yet; the creator is seeking trader input.

Arizona 2 · Jonathan Nez (D) v. Eli Crane (R)

Colorado 3 · Dwayne Romero (D) v. Jeff Hurd (R)

Maine 2 · Matt Dunlap (D) v. Paul LePage (R)

Michigan 4 · Sean McCann (D) v. Bill Huizenga (R)

Michigan 7 · William Lawrence (D) v. Tom Barrett (R)

Michigan 10 · Christina Hines (D) v. Michael Bouchard (R)

Montana 1 · Sam Forstag (D) v. Aaron Flint (R)

New York 17 · Cait Conley (D) v. Mike Lawler (R)

North Carolina 1 · Don Davis (D) v. Laurie Buckhout (R)

Ohio 9 · Marcy Kaptur (D) v. Derek Merrin (R)

Pennsylvania 1 · Bob Harvie (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Pennsylvania 8 · Paige Cognetti (D) v. Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)

Texas 15 · Bobby Pulido (D) v. Monica De La Cruz (R)

Virginia 1 · Shannon Taylor (D) v. Rob Wittman (R)

Wisconsin 1 · Mitchell Berman (D) v. Bryan Steil (R)

Wisconsin 3 · Rebecca Cooke (D) v. Derrick Van Orden (R)

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

Tracks VoteHub's published time-weighted average of Donald Trump's approval rating (

). The index updates whenever VoteHub's number changes, checked every 5 minutes.

Tracks the Democratic percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted 2026 generic-ballot polling average. This is the percentage choosing Democratic—not the Democratic-minus-Republican margin, a two-party-normalized share, a forecast, or the election result. 

Manifold checks VoteHub every 5 minutes and updates the oracle whenever VoteHub’s value changes. Historical chart points come from VoteHub’s published daily series. 

If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses. 

After November 3, 2026, this market will be manually settled at the latest accepted VoteHub Democratic-share value. 

It does not settle based on the election result. 

https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026

Tracks the Favorable percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted JD Vance favorability polling average. 

This is the percentage viewing JD Vance favorably—not net favorability, approval, or a probability. 

Because polling may be relatively sparse, the value can remain flat for extended periods and then move in larger steps. If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses. 

https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=vance_favorability

Can close when the winner is called by AP, Economist, and other major media outlets.

Resolves to the winner. Resolves on media reporting and official results.

Resolves to the winner of the 2026 us senate election in Maine. Resolves according to official results and major media reporting.

Incumbent Democratic Senator from Minnesota Tina Smith, whose seat is up for re-election in 2026, has surprisingly decided not to seek reelection. Who will replace her as Minnesota Senator? Feel free to add answers, especially since the candidate field has yet to be determined at time of market creation. Question will be resolved upon the results of the general election becoming known. I may bet in this market.

Resolves when both AP and DDHQ have called the race, and the calls are not retracted for at least 24 hours. If the race is never called by one of these organizations, resolves when election results are certified.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at 

Texas Secretary of State Elections Division

 or major news outlets covering the election results.

If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. 

If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes.

If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO. 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from Georgia.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.

As identified on the ballot, regardless of how they eventually caucus. For the caucus question, see 

Note that the Democratic party is not expected to field a candidate; they've endorsed Osborn.

In the event that Osborn declares for a major party and appears on the ballot as a D or R candidate, this market will resolve to the D or R option.

Texas, but neither California nor New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 3, 2026, the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional district maps AND gains seats in Congress.

The market will resolve “No” if the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional maps, but loses seats or maintains the same number.

The market will resolve to "NA" if no such redistricting occurs by that date. 

In July 2025, President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional maps to create five additional GOP-favored districts, aiming to bolster the party's majority in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Governor Greg Abbott responded by adding redistricting to a special legislative session agenda. Democrats are vulnerable because unlike Texas, Democratic strongholds typically have independent redistricting commissions to ensure nonpartisan districts. (

Texas Republicans currently hold 25 of the state's 38 congressional seats. The proposed redistricting targets districts like that of Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the Rio Grande Valley. The current districts are already being challenged under the Voting Rights act for diluting minority rule. Mid-decade redistricting is unprecedented, as is such extreme and blatant partisanship in creating voting districts. Ordinarily districts are redrawn once every ten years to reflect changes in the state population as recorded in the Census. 

Some are speculating that further aggressive gerrymandering in Texas amounts to “dummymandering” that could backfire by galvanizing people into turning out and toppling GOP incumbents in redrawn districts that didn’t elect them. 

A federal district court recently ruled that Texas could not use its 2025 map for the 2026 midterms:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/politics/texas-redistricting-trump-court-ruling

This question resolves YES if and only if the 2025 map, as enacted by the legislature in August, is actually used for the 2026 midterms (e.g. if the district court's decision is overturned on appeal).

This market resolves yes if Virginia uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

There is a current attempt in Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting, similar to several other states. This is particularly complicated in Virginia, because they currently have a bipartisan redistricting commission and passing a constitutional amendment is more difficult than in California. The steps needed (to my understanding:

This market will resolve Yes if Florida uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

Governor Ron DeSantis has announced a new map, and there is a special session of the (Republican controlled) legislature to try to pass it. From a legal perspective redistricting in Florida is complicated by the fact that the Florida constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering (in contrast to other states where the easiest way to avoid legal challenges to to be explicit that you are gerrymandering based on partisanship).

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas - Wikipedia

Resolves yes if the Libertarian candidate, Ted brown, receives 2.0000% or more of the vote in the 2026 Texas election, against Talarico and Paxton.

Ted Brown is the Libertarian Party candidate for U. S. Senator from Texas in 2026. Personal freedom. Economic freedom. Anti-war and anti-foreign intervention.

Ted Brown (@TedBrownLiberty) on X

In 2018 Beto O'Rourke closed the vote share gap to incumbent Ted Cruz to 

turning a safe seat into an unexpectedly close race.

This market resolves YES if the difference between Talarico's and the winner's vote share in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas is strictly less than that, and resolves NO otherwise

2026 Maryland gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%). If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018). 

How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin

President Trump Job Approval (1st Term) - RCP

Resolves yes if the Democratic candidate wins Ohio (Sherrod brown) and loses Iowa (Josh Turek) in the 2026 us senate elections. 

Washington Post reports that Trump is expected to bring the USPS under executive control. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/

Assuming he issues the expected order, and further assuming the order is not overturned before the 2026 midterms, will Trump issue another executive order preventing the delivery or counting of vote-by-mail ballots for the federal elections for the 120th Congress?

This market will also resolve Yes if Congress passes legislation that prevents either the delivery or the counting of vote-by-mail ballots in the same elections.

In the case that such an executive order is issued or such a law is passed, and in practice the order or law only applies to some portion of eligible voters, this market will also resolve Yes.

This market will resolve when the 120th Congress sits for their first session.

Resolves yes if the Libertarian candidate, Ted brown, receives 1.0000% or more of the vote in the 2026 Texas election, against Talarico and Paxton.

While 10% of the vote would not win the seat, by taking votes from other candidates, 10% may be enough to change the outcome of an election and influence the final composition of the House of Representatives and even which party has a house majority.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any official candidate nominated by the America Party receives at least 10% of the total votes in any U.S. Congressional seat (House or Senate) during the 2026 elections. Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for verification.

For this item to resolve yes, the candidate must be a nominee or member of the America Party, and CANNOT be an official nominee of the Democrat or Republican Party.

Refers to the federal U.S. Congress only, not state legislatures.

Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party in July 2025, aiming to challenge the traditional two-party system and influence the 2026 midterm elections. The party's platform emphasizes fiscal responsibility and reducing government spending. Musk has indicated a strategy focused on targeting a select number of House and Senate races to maximize impact. (

Historically, third-party candidates have faced significant challenges in U.S. elections. For instance, in the 2016 Arkansas House elections, Libertarian candidates received substantial vote shares, with some districts seeing over 20% of votes going to third-party candidates, primarily due to the absence of Democratic contenders. (

Achieving 10% of the vote in a Congressional district is a notable benchmark for third-party candidates. While the America Party's association with Elon Musk provides substantial resources and media attention, the entrenched two-party system and varying state ballot access laws present significant hurdles. Additionally, the party's ability to attract disillusioned voters from both major parties will be crucial in determining its success in the 2026 elections.