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Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump
50%
Donald Trump
Biden
48%
Joe Biden
Harris
0.9%
Kamala Harris
Kennedy
0.3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
M. Obama
0.1%
Michelle Obama
Haley
0.1%
Nikki Haley
Newsom
0.1%
Gavin Newsom
Scott
0.1%
Tim Scott
13 more
Either candidate mentions something they did earlier in the day.
40%
Trump's microphone gets turned off / censored
69%
Trump or Biden mention George / Alex Soros
34%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
55%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
15%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
65%
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict
75%
Mistrial (without any guilty counts)
17%
Not guilty (on all counts) by jury verdict
7%
Democratic Party
41%
Republican Party
59%
Other
0%
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
Wisconsin
DEM
55%
REP
45%
Michigan
DEM
51%
REP
49%
Pennsylvania
DEM
51%
REP
49%
Arizona
DEM
41%
REP
59%
Nevada
DEM
38%
REP
62%
Georgia
DEM
32%
REP
68%
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Republican Party
50%
Democratic Party
50%
Republican vice presidential nomination
Scott
20%
-2% today
Tim Scott
Vance
19%
-17% today
J.D. Vance
Burgum
18%
+7% today
Doug Burgum
Rubio
8%
+5% today
Marco Rubio
Tom Cotton
6%
+8% today
Stefanik
5%
Elise Stefanik
Carson
3%
Ben Carson
Noem
2%
Kristi Noem
61 more
2024 Democratic presidential nomination
Biden
95%
Joe Biden
Harris
3%
Kamala Harris
Newsom
0.9%
Gavin Newsom
M. Obama
0.6%
Michelle Obama
Whitmer
0.1%
Gretchen Whitmer
Phillips
0.1%
Dean Phillips
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
0%
1 more
2024 Republican presidential nomination
Trump
97%
Donald Trump
Haley
1.9%
Nikki Haley
DeSantis
0.2%
Ron DeSantis
1 more
What will happen if...

Trump Trial

75%
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict
17%
Mistrial (without any guilty counts)
7%
Not guilty (on all counts) by jury verdict
0.8%
Dismissal / dropped charges
NBC News
'That was a lie!': Trump's lawyer gets heated during questioning of former fixer Michael Cohen
Michael Cohen will be back on the witness stand to continue facing off against Donald Trump's defense as the historic criminal case against the former president nears an end.
1%
Before Memorial Day Weekend [May 24th]
69%
By the end of May [May 31st]
85%
By the end of Spring [June 20th]
93%
By Independence Day [July 4th]
65%
Jury deliberations will take at least three days
64%
The jury will find Trump not guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts
25%
Jury deliberations will last less than one full day
22%
Joe Biden will be mentioned
CNN
Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics
Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.
AP News
Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K
Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.
Highlights from Day 1 of Trump’s hush money trial during jury selection
Latest news and updates on Trump's hush money trial, with jury selection beginning today. Witnesses included Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen.
89%
None of the 12 jurors leave.
5%
Juror 2: A man who works in investment banking and lives in Hell's Kitchen. Follows Trump, Michael Cohen and Kellyanne Conway on social media. Believes Trump has done some good for the country, but that he can be an impartial juror.
1.2%
Juror 9: A woman who is a speech therapist, gets news from CNN and likes reality TV podcasts. Said “he was our president. Everyone knows who he is,” adding that when he was in office “everyone was kind of talking about politics."
0.8%
Juror 6: A young woman who lives in Chelsea and works as a software engineer. She gets news from The New York Times, Google, Facebook and TikTok. She said she probably has different beliefs than Mr. Trump, but that “this is a free country.”
81%
Felony
4%
Misdemeanor
15%
No judgment (acquittal, mistrial, delay)
Just Security
A Complete Guide to the Manhattan Trump Election Interference Prosecution
A comprehensive guide on what to expect at Donald Trump's landmark criminal trial in Manhattan for his alleged falsification of business records and hush money arrangement in 2016 presidential election.
YouTube
Breaking Down the Law: NY Trump Trial Charges and Theory of the Case
Journalist Adam Klasfeld explains how the alleged hush money scheme worked and how Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg got to 34 felony charges.Read the ...
NBC News
Judge Juan Merchan sets April 15 trial date for Trump hush money case
The judge presiding over Donald Trump's hush money case on Monday scheduled the trial to begin on April 15.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is facing 34 felony counts of falsifying New York business records in order to cover up a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who has said she had a sexual encounter with Trump. Trump has denied that claim.

38%
Yes/Yes: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election
39%
Yes/No: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election
19%
No/Yes: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election
4%
No/No: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election

Trump VP

20%
Tim Scott (SC Senator )
19%
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
18%
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
8%
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
58%
Tim Scott (SC Senator)
19%
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
15%
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
3%
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
38%
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
30%
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
11%
Tim Scott (SC Senator)
8%
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
Intelligencer
Who’s the Trump VP Pick? Latest Odds for Every Shortlist Candidate.
Who is the Trump VP pick? Here’s the latest news on the rumored Trump shortlist for vice president — including Tom Cotton, Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum — ranked by which candidate has the best odds of being the 2024 Trump running mate.
12%
6 feet or taller
91%
Former or current congressperson
22%
Former or current governor
21%
Woman
60%
Trump says anything about his VP being physically attractive
67%
Trump describes his VP with the word "nice"
71%
Trump describes his VP with the word "loyal"
20%
Trump says the name "Melania"
40%
One of the rumored short list members: Vance, Huckabee-Sanders, Scott, or Stefanik
32%
One of the current three favorites: Stefanik, Noem, or Scott
27%
Anyone from the Gidursky shortlist (Vance, Rubio, Britt)
22%
One of his would-be rivals: Scott, Desantis, Haley, or Vivek
Vox
Trump’s rumored VP shortlist, explained
A rundown of the people auditioning for the job — and what they bring to the ticket.
84%
Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina)
71%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Governer of Arkansas)
69%
Elise Stefanik (Chair of the House Republican Conference)
67%
Doug Burgum (Governor, North Dakota)

Close Races

29%
Dem Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
28%
GOP Pres, GOP Congress: GOP trifecta
23%
Dem Pres, Dem Congress: Dem trifecta
10%
GOP Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
55%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
15%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
65%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
21%
If Biden loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.

  • Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.

  • Meanwhile, multiple GOP Congress resignations have left the Republicans with a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.

Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics

NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
59%
Bernie Moreno (Republican Party)
41%
Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
11%
Greater than D+2.5
17%
D+0 to D+2.5
20%
R+0 to R+2.5
33%
R+2.5 to R+5
AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
64%
Tim Sheehy (Republican Party Likely Nominee)
36%
Jon Tester (Democratic Party Likely Nominee)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
6%
Greater than D+2.5
28%
D+0 to D+2.5
12%
R+0 to R+2.5
16%
R+2.5 to R+5
Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
35%
AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
6%
AL-02 NEW SEAT
49%
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
63%
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%

Swing States

14%
Maryland (Presidency and Senate)
19%
Wisconsin (Presidency and Senate)
29%
Michigan (Presidency and Senate)
29%
Pennsylvania (Presidency and Senate)
2024 Wisconsin Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Wisconsin Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Pennsylvania Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Pennsylvania Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Nevada Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Nevada Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Arizona Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Arizona Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Michigan Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Michigan Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 North Carolina Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 North Carolina Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Georgia Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Georgia Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.