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Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump
51%
Donald Trump
Biden
46%
Joe Biden
Harris
1.1%
Kamala Harris
Newsom
0.6%
Gavin Newsom
Haley
0.3%
Nikki Haley
M. Obama
0.3%
Michelle Obama
Kennedy
0.3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Whitmer
0.2%
Gretchen Whitmer
13 more
Fine
98%
Fine of at least $10,000
92%
Fine of at least $100,000
79%
Netanyahu wears a pin with an Israeli flag
96%
"Hamas" said by Netanyahu more than 5 times
95%
More than ten members of Congress wear yellow ribbons
95%
Any of the following are said: "Obamna" "Biden Blast" "Dark Brandon" "Donald Hump" "soda" or "Obiden"
15%
Any third party candidate is on stage.
37%
There is a question about Biden's movement to the right on the southern border
71%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
55%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
20%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
65%
Democratic Party
44%
Republican Party
56%
Other
0%
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
Wisconsin
DEM
52%
REP
48%
Michigan
DEM
52%
REP
48%
Pennsylvania
DEM
50%
REP
50%
Nevada
DEM
45%
REP
55%
Arizona
DEM
44%
REP
56%
Georgia
DEM
31%
REP
69%
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Republican Party
50%
Democratic Party
50%
Republican vice presidential nomination
Burgum
20%
Doug Burgum
Vance
17%
J.D. Vance
Rubio
17%
Marco Rubio
Scott
15%
Tim Scott
Carson
6%
Ben Carson
Stefanik
4%
Elise Stefanik
Byron Donalds (Florida Congressman)
3%
Ramaswamy
1.8%
Vivek Ramaswamy
61 more
2024 Democratic presidential nomination
Biden
96%
Joe Biden
Harris
0.4%
Kamala Harris
Newsom
0.1%
Gavin Newsom
M. Obama
0%
Michelle Obama
Phillips
0%
Dean Phillips
Whitmer
0%
Gretchen Whitmer
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
0%
1 more
2024 Republican presidential nomination
Trump
97%
Donald Trump
DeSantis
1.9%
Ron DeSantis
Haley
1.4%
Nikki Haley
1 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
Will the US enter a recession before 2027?
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

Trump Convicted

98%
Fine
92%
Fine of at least $10,000
79%
Fine of at least $100,000
77%
Probation
CNN
Donald Trump found guilty of all 34 charges in hush money trial | CNN Politics
A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records he faced in his New York hush money criminal trial.
AP News
Jurors in Trump hush money trial end 1st day of deliberations after asking to rehear testimony
Jurors will receive instructions from the judge on the law and the factors they may consider as they strive to reach a verdict in the first criminal case against a former American president.
CNN
Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics
Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.
AP News
Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K
Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.
Just Security
A Complete Guide to the Manhattan Trump Election Interference Prosecution
A comprehensive guide on what to expect at Donald Trump's landmark criminal trial in Manhattan for his alleged falsification of business records and hush money arrangement in 2016 presidential election.

Trump VP

20%
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
17%
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
17%
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
15%
Tim Scott (SC Senator )
55%
Trump says anything about his VP being physically attractive
69%
Trump describes his VP with the word "nice"
70%
Trump describes his VP with the word "loyal"
19%
Trump says the name "Melania"
70%
29 (July 15-21)
8%
28 (July 8-14)
4%
26 (June 24-30)
4%
25 (June 17-23)
9%
6 feet or taller
87%
Former or current congressperson
25%
Former or current governor
17%
Woman
Intelligencer
Who’s the Trump VP Pick? Latest Odds for Every Shortlist Candidate.
Who is the Trump VP pick? Here’s the latest news on the rumored Trump shortlist for vice president — including Marco Rubio, Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum — ranked by which candidate has the best odds of being the 2024 Trump running mate.
35%
One of the rumored short list members: Vance, Huckabee-Sanders, Scott, or Stefanik
33%
Anyone from the Gidursky shortlist (Vance, Rubio, Britt)
20%
MAGA in Congress: Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jim Jordan, or Matt Gaetz
17%
One of his would-be rivals: Scott, Desantis, Haley, or Vivek
Vox
Trump’s rumored VP shortlist, explained
A rundown of the people auditioning for the job — and what they bring to the ticket.
84%
Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina)
82%
Doug Burgum (Governor, North Dakota)
79%
Byron Donalds (Florida congressman)
67%
Elise Stefanik (Chair of the House Republican Conference)

Close Races

55%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
20%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
65%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
31%
If Biden loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
27%
GOP Pres, GOP Congress: GOP trifecta
25%
GOP Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
24%
Dem Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
13%
Dem Pres, Dem Congress: Dem trifecta

This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.

  • Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.

  • Meanwhile, multiple GOP Congress resignations have left the Republicans with a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.

Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics

NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
57%
Bernie Moreno (Republican Party)
43%
Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
11%
Greater than D+2.5
17%
D+0 to D+2.5
23%
R+0 to R+2.5
32%
R+2.5 to R+5
AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
65%
Tim Sheehy (Republican Party Likely Nominee)
35%
Jon Tester (Democratic Party Likely Nominee)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
6%
Greater than D+2.5
28%
D+0 to D+2.5
12%
R+0 to R+2.5
16%
R+2.5 to R+5
Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
42%
AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
6%
AL-02 NEW SEAT
56%
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
63%
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%

Swing States

14%
Maryland (Presidency and Senate)
19%
Wisconsin (Presidency and Senate)
29%
Pennsylvania (Presidency and Senate)
50%
Michigan (Presidency and Senate)
2024 Wisconsin Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Wisconsin Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Pennsylvania Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Pennsylvania Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Nevada Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Nevada Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Arizona Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Arizona Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Michigan Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Michigan Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 North Carolina Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 North Carolina Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Georgia Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Georgia Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.

Polling

ABC News
6 months out, a tight presidential race with battle between issues and attributes: POLL
Locked in a tight presidential race, Trump prevails in trust to handle most issues in new ABC News/Ipsos poll, yet Biden scores competitively on key personal attributes.
Newsweek
Joe Biden's astonishing polling comeback
Recent surveys and polling aggregation websites indicate Joe Biden's chances of winning the national vote in November have improved significantly.