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Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
2024 US Presidential Election
Biden
52%
Joe Biden
Trump
46%
Donald Trump
Newsom
0.3%
Gavin Newsom
Harris
0.2%
Kamala Harris
M. Obama
0.2%
Michelle Obama
Haley
0.1%
Nikki Haley
Whitmer
0%
Gretchen Whitmer
DeSantis
0%
Ron DeSantis
13 more
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic Party
51%
Republican Party
49%
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict
71%
Mistrial (without any guilty counts)
21%
Not guilty (on all counts) by jury verdict
4%
Democratic Party
48%
Republican Party
52%
Other
0%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
59%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
16%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
60%
Republican vice presidential nomination
Scott
18%
-3% today
Tim Scott
Noem
17%
+3% today
Kristi Noem
Rubio
9%
Marco Rubio
Vance
8%
J.D. Vance
Stefanik
7%
Elise Stefanik
Gabbard
5%
Tulsi Gabbard
Zeldin
5%
Lee Zeldin
Ramaswamy
4%
Vivek Ramaswamy
61 more
2024 Democratic presidential nomination
Biden
94%
Joe Biden
Newsom
2%
Gavin Newsom
Harris
1.7%
Kamala Harris
M. Obama
0.9%
Michelle Obama
Whitmer
0.3%
Gretchen Whitmer
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
0.1%
Phillips
0.1%
Dean Phillips
1 more
2024 Republican presidential nomination
Trump
95%
Donald Trump
Haley
2%
Nikki Haley
DeSantis
0.1%
Ron DeSantis
1 more
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
Pennsylvania
DEM
56%
REP
44%
Wisconsin
DEM
51%
REP
49%
Michigan
DEM
50%
REP
50%
Arizona
DEM
48%
REP
52%
Nevada
DEM
48%
REP
52%
Georgia
DEM
41%
REP
59%
What will happen if...

Trump Trial

Highlights from Day 1 of Trump’s hush money trial during jury selection
Latest news and updates on Trump's hush money trial, with jury selection beginning today. Witnesses included Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen.
71%
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict
21%
Mistrial (without any guilty counts)
4%
Not guilty (on all counts) by jury verdict
3%
Plea bargain
65%
By the end of May [May 31st]
66%
By the end of National Donald Duck Day [June 9th]
77%
By the end of Spring [June 20th]
92%
By Independence Day [July 4th]
95%
A Trump tweet will be presented as evidence by the prosecution
90%
A voice recording of Trump will be presented as evidence
88%
Social media posts of any witness will be shared during cross-examination
84%
Trump will be found to have violated a gag order
55%
None of the 12 jurors leave.
19%
Juror 2: A man who works in investment banking and lives in Hell's Kitchen. Follows Trump, Michael Cohen and Kellyanne Conway on social media. Believes Trump has done some good for the country, but that he can be an impartial juror.
9%
Juror 9: A woman who is a speech therapist, gets news from CNN and likes reality TV podcasts. Said “he was our president. Everyone knows who he is,” adding that when he was in office “everyone was kind of talking about politics."
4%
Juror 6: A young woman who lives in Chelsea and works as a software engineer. She gets news from The New York Times, Google, Facebook and TikTok. She said she probably has different beliefs than Mr. Trump, but that “this is a free country.”
74%
Felony
1.7%
Misdemeanor
25%
No judgment (acquittal, mistrial, delay)
Just Security
A Complete Guide to the Manhattan Trump Election Interference Prosecution
A comprehensive guide on what to expect at Donald Trump's landmark criminal trial in Manhattan for his alleged falsification of business records and hush money arrangement in 2016 presidential election.
YouTube
Breaking Down the Law: NY Trump Trial Charges and Theory of the Case
Journalist Adam Klasfeld explains how the alleged hush money scheme worked and how Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg got to 34 felony charges.Read the ...
NBC News
Judge Juan Merchan sets April 15 trial date for Trump hush money case
The judge presiding over Donald Trump's hush money case on Monday scheduled the trial to begin on April 15.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is facing 34 felony counts of falsifying New York business records in order to cover up a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who has said she had a sexual encounter with Trump. Trump has denied that claim.

32%
Yes/Yes: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election
51%
Yes/No: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election
10%
No/Yes: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election
7%
No/No: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election

Trump VP

Intelligencer
Who’s the Trump VP Pick? Latest Odds for Every Shortlist Candidate.
Who is the Trump VP pick? Here’s the latest news on the rumored Trump shortlist for vice-president — including Kari Lake, MTG, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott — ranked by which candidate has the best odds of being the 2024 Trump running mate.
18%
Tim Scott (SC Senator )
17%
Kristi Noem (SD Governor)
9%
Marco Rubio
8%
Other
18%
6 feet or taller
87%
Former or current congressperson
33%
Former or current governor
43%
Woman
58%
Trump says anything about his VP being physically attractive
65%
Trump describes his VP with the word "nice"
65%
Trump describes his VP with the word "loyal"
21%
Trump says the name "Melania"
52%
One of the current three favorites: Stefanik, Noem, or Scott
40%
One of the rumored short list members: Vance, Huckabee-Sanders, Scott, or Stefanik
29%
One of his would-be rivals: Scott, Desantis, Haley, or Vivek
22%
One of the Governors: Noem or Huckabee-Sanders
Vox
Trump’s rumored VP shortlist, explained
A rundown of the people auditioning for the job — and what they bring to the ticket.
86%
Kristi Noem (Governor of South Dakota)
84%
Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina)
72%
Elise Stefanik (Chair of the House Republican Conference)
71%
J. D. Vance
Who might Trump pick to be vice president? Here are 7 possibilities
Who might be Trump's choice to be his vice president in 2024? Here are the names of some possible 2024 VP picks.

Key Races

This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.

  • Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.

  • Meanwhile, multiple GOP Congress resignations have left the Republicans with a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.

Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics

59%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
16%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
60%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
17%
If Biden loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
60%
Bernie Moreno (Republican Party)
40%
Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
12%
Greater than D+2.5
19%
D+0 to D+2.5
22%
R+0 to R+2.5
26%
R+2.5 to R+5
AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
62%
Tim Sheehy (Republican Party Likely Nominee)
38%
Jon Tester (Democratic Party Likely Nominee)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
6%
Greater than D+2.5
29%
D+0 to D+2.5
12%
R+0 to R+2.5
17%
R+2.5 to R+5
Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
37%
AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
5%
AL-02 NEW SEAT
49%
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
56%
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%
28%
GOP Pres, GOP Congress: GOP trifecta
23%
Dem Pres, Dem Congress: Dem trifecta
20%
Dem Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
17%
GOP Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House

Swing States

60%
North Carolina (Presidency and Governorship)
48%
New Hampshire (Presidency and Governorship)
35%
Arizona (Presidency and Senate)
31%
Wisconsin (Presidency and Senate)
2024 Wisconsin Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Wisconsin Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
51%
Democratic Party
49%
Republican Party
0%
Other
67%
Democratic Party
33%
Republican Party
0.5%
Other
2024 Pennsylvania Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Pennsylvania Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
56%
Democratic Party
44%
Republican Party
0%
Other
83%
Democratic Party
16%
Republican Party
0.6%
Other
2024 Nevada Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Nevada Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
48%
Democratic Party
52%
Republican Party
0%
Other
64%
Democratic Party
35%
Republican Party
0.9%
Other
2024 Arizona Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Arizona Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
48%
Democratic Party
52%
Republican Party
0%
Other
60%
Democratic Party
40%
Republican Party
0.2%
Other
2024 Michigan Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Michigan Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
50%
Democratic Party
50%
Republican Party
0%
Other
60%
Democratic Party
40%
Republican Party
0.1%
Other
2024 North Carolina Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 North Carolina Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
23%
Democratic Party
77%
Republican Party
0.1%
Other
73%
Democratic Party
26%
Republican Party
0.4%
Other
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Georgia Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Georgia Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.

Biden-Trump Polls

Newsweek
Joe Biden's astonishing polling comeback
Recent surveys and polling aggregation websites indicate Joe Biden's chances of winning the national vote in November have improved significantly.
NPR
Here's what matters to voters — and what could change their minds if it's Biden-Trump
Preserving democracy is top of mind for Democrats and independents, while Republicans are most concerned about immigration. And there are big splits on how to handle immigration in particular.

TikTok Ban Signed

AP News
Senate passes bill forcing TikTok's parent company to sell or face ban, sends to Biden for signature
The Senate has passed legislation that would force TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell the social media platform under the threat of a ban, a contentious move by U.S. lawmakers that’s expected to face legal challenges and disrupt the lives of content creators who rely on the short-form video
49%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
31%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
13%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
6%
The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law
NPR
House approves sell-or-be-banned TikTok measure, attaching it to foreign aid bill
The bill, now advancing to the Senate, represents the most serious threat yet to the video app used by half of Americans.
AP News
House passes a bill that could lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner refuses to sell
The bill would require the Chinese firm ByteDance to divest TikTok and other applications it owns within six months of the bill’s enactment.
Resolved
NO
Jeff Merkley - D, Oregon
Resolved
NO
Bernie Sanders - I, Vermont
Resolved
NO
Tommy Tuberville - R, Alabama
Resolved
NO
Marco Rubio - R, Florida
Resolved
NO
Jeff Merkley - D, Oregon
Resolved
NO
Bernie Sanders - I, Vermont
Resolved
NO
Tommy Tuberville - R, Alabama
Resolved
NO
Marco Rubio - R, Florida
definitely yes
lean yes
maybe
lean no
See 2 more options
NPR
President Biden would ban TikTok. But candidate Biden is using it for his campaign
The White House supports a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its Chinese parent company sells it. It's a popular app with young voters, who the Biden campaign is working to woo.