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Manifold AI Forecasts
Live prediction market odds on all things AI
Countdown to AGIThe market expects we achieve artificial general intelligence by 2029... What do you think?
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AGI Timelines

60%
≥50%
·
1mo
27%
≥70%
·
1mo
11%
≥85%
·
1mo
CNET
There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference
It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.
What Is Artificial Superintelligence? | IBM
Artificial superintelligence is a hypothetical software-based AI system with intellect beyond human intelligence.
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
TIME
The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying
As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic
39%
Other
·
10mo
24%
OpenAI
·
10mo
15%
DeepMind
·
10mo
8%
The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)
·
10mo

OpenAI

6%
Before August 2024
·
2mo
18%
Before September 2024
·
2mo
37%
Before October 2024
·
2mo
40%
Before November 2024
·
2mo
1.2%
Jul-01 to Jul-07
·
18d
3%
Jul-08 to Jul-14
·
18d
4%
Jul-15 to Jul-21
·
18d
3%
Jul-22 to Jul-28
·
18d
Business Insider
OpenAI starts training its 'next frontier model' and takes action on safety concerns
CEO Sam Altman is one of four directors on a new committee that plans to make "critical safety and security decisions" at OpenAI.
66%
January 2025 or later
·
2mo
8%
December 2024
·
2mo
11%
November 2024
·
2mo
5%
October 2024
·
2mo
CNN
OpenAI unveils newest AI model, GPT-4o | CNN Business
OpenAI on Monday announced its latest artificial intelligence large language model that it says will be easier and more intuitive to use.
28%
Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.
·
3mo
13%
Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.
·
3mo
15%
Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful
·
3mo
18%
Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.
·
3mo
Business Insider
OpenAI is expected to release a 'materially better' GPT-5 for its chatbot mid-year, sources say
The model that underlies the popular ChatGPT generative AI tool is said to be soon getting an upgrade.
34%
2024 or 2025
·
3mo
18%
2026 or 2027
·
3mo
18%
2028 or 2029
·
3mo
30%
Not before 2030
·
3mo
Business Insider
Microsoft and OpenAI plan to build a $100 billion supercomputer to power artificial intelligence: report
Microsoft and OpenAI are planning an unprecedented supercomputer that would use millions of specialized server chips, The Information reported.
YouTube
Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...
61%
It won't release during 2024
·
4mo
14%
It will release between May and October 2024
·
4mo
16%
It will release in November 2024
·
4mo
43%
It will release in December 2024
·
4mo
0.1%
February 2024
·
5mo
1.4%
March 2024
·
5mo
1.4%
April 2024
·
5mo
1.9%
May 2024
·
5mo
TechCrunch
Diffusion transformers are the key behind OpenAI's Sora -- and they're set to upend GenAI | TechCrunch
At the heart of Sora and Stable Diffusion 3.0 is a type of AI model architecture called the diffusion transformer.
64%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
·
5mo
54%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
·
5mo
68%
A second major version of the model has been released
·
5mo
15%
A third major version of the model has been released
·
5mo
2%
Ilya Sutskever
·
7mo
89%
Adam D’Angelo
·
7mo
1.5%
Tasha McCauley
·
7mo
1.5%
Helen Toner
·
7mo
Elon Musk sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, claiming "stark betrayal" of the AI company's mission
Lawsuit accuses OpenAI of abandoning its mission to benefit humanity in favor of pursuing its commercial interests.
TechCrunch
Andrej Karpathy is leaving OpenAI again — but he says there was no drama | TechCrunch
Andrej Karpathy, a widely respected research scientist, has quit OpenAI for the second time to focus on personal projects.
Sama says "build for GPT-5 and AGI Now; GPT-5 in 2024, AGI in 2025" | Hacker News
Ars Technica
Mysterious “gpt2-chatbot” AI model appears suddenly, confuses experts
Mystery LLM highlights transparency issues in AI testing.

AI Capabilities

YouTube
Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning

Sama Drama

97%
Sam Altman (Current CEO)
·
1mo
2%
Other
·
1mo
0.3%
Mira Murati (Current CTO, Former Interim CEO)
·
1mo
0.2%
Greg Brockman (Current President)
·
1mo
The Verge
Lawyers say OpenAI could be in real trouble with Scarlett Johansson
OpenAI might find itself in legal trouble if Scarlett Johansson decides to use California’s right to publicity rules to protect her voice and identity against ChatGPT.
Vox
Leaked OpenAI documents reveal aggressive tactics toward former employees
Has Sam Altman told the truth about OpenAI’s NDA scandal?
The Verge
OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever is officially leaving
Ilya Sutskever, the OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist who reportedly led the infamous failed coup against Sam Altman, is unsurprisingly leaving the company.
29%
They will publicly show some novel results in 2024
·
25d
73%
More people think it will be net-positive for the world than net-negative, based on a Manifold poll in December
·
25d
34%
Someone in an Executive or Director role at a FAANG or MAMAA company resigns to join the project within 1 month of the announcement
·
2mo
43%
It's related to the medical or scientific research industry
·
2mo

AI Doom

Vox
The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity
Why some people fear AI, explained.
MIT Technology Review
Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to
The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.

GPT-5

Ars Technica
GPT-5 might arrive this summer as a “materially better” update to ChatGPT
Sources say to expect OpenAI's next major AI model mid-2024, according to a new report.
Resolved
YES
achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)
·
4mo
Resolved
YES
released in 2024
·
4mo
Resolved
YES
support video input
·
4mo
Resolved
YES
support long-term memory
·
4mo
Resolved
NO
Before April
·
3mo
Resolved
NO
Before May
·
3mo
Resolved
YES
Before June
·
3mo
Resolved
YES
Before July
·
3mo
YouTube
Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...

In an interview posted March 18th, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says:

Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again?

Sam Altman(01:06:15) I don’t know. That’s the honest answer.

Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, that’s the honest answer. Blink twice if it’s this year.

Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I don’t know what we’ll call it.

TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
·
8mo
69%
Video modality(Input or Output)
·
8mo
96%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
·
8mo
96%
Image Modality(Output)
·
8mo