HomeAI CapabilitiesAGI TimelinesAI DoomWhere's Ilya?GPT-5Sora/HollywoodPolitics & AIGPT-5 Capabilities
Manifold AI Forecasts
Live prediction market odds on all things AI
Countdown to AGIThe market expects we achieve artificial general intelligence by 2031... What do you think?
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Trending
Read .docx, .pptx and .xlsx files
95%
Order a pizza for you
80%
Autonomously moderate a Discord server given its rules, warning and timeout-ing people and explaining its reasoning.
73%
released in 2024
91%
achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)
91%
support more agentic, time-consuming tasks with minimal input
85%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
72%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
58%
A second major version of the model has been released
56%

AI Capabilities

YouTube
Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning

AGI Timelines

CNET
There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference
It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.
trending
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,032
What Is Artificial Superintelligence? | IBM
Artificial superintelligence is a hypothetical software-based AI system with intellect beyond human intelligence.
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
TIME
The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying
As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic
27%
DeepMind
27%
Other
25%
OpenAI
7%
The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

AI Doom

Vox
The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity
Ensuring machine learning programs are aligned could be one of the biggest existential problems of our time.
trending
P(Doom) - Dario Amodei39
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P(Doom) - Emmett Shear36
trending
P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio42
MIT Technology Review
Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to
The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.

Where's Ilya?

GPT-5

Ars Technica
GPT-5 might arrive this summer as a “materially better” update to ChatGPT
Sources say to expect OpenAI's next major AI model mid-2024, according to a new report.
91%
released in 2024
91%
achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)
85%
support more agentic, time-consuming tasks with minimal input
79%
context window >= 500k tokens
4%
Before May
11%
Before June
40%
Before July
48%
Before August
YouTube
Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...

In an interview posted March 18th, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says:

Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again?

Sam Altman(01:06:15) I don’t know. That’s the honest answer.

Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, that’s the honest answer. Blink twice if it’s this year.

Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I don’t know what we’ll call it.

TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
50%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
71%
Video modality(Input or Output)
73%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
76%
Image Modality(Output)

Sora/Hollywood

The Verge
OpenAI is pitching Sora to Hollywood.
The AI company is scheduled to meet with a number of studios, talent agencies, and media executives in Los Angeles next week to discuss partnerships, sources familiar with the matter tell Bloomberg. Getting more filmmakers familiar with Sora, OpenAI’s upcoming text-to-video generator, is a major goal of the meetings. Although Sora is still awaiting a public release later this year, Bloomberg reports that a few A-list directors and actors have already been given access.
72%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
58%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
56%
A second major version of the model has been released
15%
A third major version of the model has been released
YouTube
Sora Developers Explain AI Video Generation
In this clip, Marques talks with the team leading Sora over at OpenAI!Watch full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Srh1lut4Q2AShop the merch:https://s...
What Are AI Hallucinations? | IBM
AI hallucinations are when a large language model (LLM) perceives patterns or objects that are nonexistent, creating nonsensical or inaccurate outputs.
Cartoon Brew
New Report Confirms Worst Fears: AI Will Disrupt Countless Animation Jobs Over Next 3 Years
The startling report makes one thing clear: generative AI is here today and wreaking havoc right now.

Politics & AI

Newsweek
Donald Trump raises red flag on AI: "So scary"
Former President Donald Trump called AI maybe "the most dangerous" thing out there.
Vox
President Biden’s new plan to regulate AI
The White House spells out its vision for governing the powerful technology.

GPT-5 Capabilities

TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
50%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
71%
Video modality(Input or Output)
73%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
76%
Image Modality(Output)