🏆 LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

More or less chronological order of interesting questions, ranging from today to EOY 2025.

LMSys Chatbot Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by lmsys

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What will be the score of the new GPT-4 Turbo (gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09) in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena at the end of May?

0.3%

1200-1225

6%

1226-1250

91%

1251-1275

0.9%

1276-1300

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#Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

#GPT-4 speculation

Will OpenAI be on the top of the Chatbot Arena's LLM Leaderboard until EOY 2024?22% chance

#Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of June, 2024?

82%

OpenAI

10%

Alphabet (Google)

3%

Anthropic

2%

Meta

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Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)24% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of Dec, 2024?

65%

OpenAI

20%

Alphabet (Google)

9%

Anthropic

3%

Other

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#Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?9% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

Which companies will rank in top 10 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?

98%

OpenAI

97%

Anthropic

92%

Google

63%

Mistral

#Technical AI Timelines

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?21% chance

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?30% chance

#Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

How many organizations will have released a GPT-4-level chatbot by the end of 2024?

4%

3

19%

4-5

40%

6-7

32%

8-9

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Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

62%

OpenAI

6%

Anthropic

0.7%

Mistral

26%

Google

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