🏆 LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

More or less chronological order of interesting questions, ranging from today to EOY 2025.

465
What will be the score of the new GPT-4 Turbo (gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09) in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena at the end of May?
100%98.4%
1251-1275
0.1%
1200-1225
0.3%
1226-1250
0.4%
1276-1300
See 5 more answers
1k
Will OpenAI be on the top of the Chatbot Arena's LLM Leaderboard until EOY 2024?NO
2.7k
What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of June, 2024?
100%97%
OpenAI
0.4%
Alphabet (Google)
2%
Anthropic
0.0%
Mistral
See 5 more answers
1k
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)NO
1.5k
What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of Dec, 2024?
100%99.6%
Alphabet (Google)
0.2%
OpenAI
0.0%
Anthropic
0.0%
Mistral AI
See 4 more answers
1k
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?NO
1.2k
Which companies will rank in top 10 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Resolved
YES
OpenAI
Resolved
YES
Anthropic
Resolved
YES
Google
Resolved
YES
xAI
See 2 more answers
1k
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?NO
1.6k
Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?YES
1k
How many organizations will have released a GPT-4-level chatbot by the end of 2024?
100%89%
10+
1.1%
3
1.5%
4-5
5%
6-7
See 1 more answer
1.2k
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
39%
Google
30%
OpenAI
12%
xAI
10%
Other
See 3 more answers
See more questions:
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules