Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

38

Ṁ1kṀ18k

resolved Feb 3

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.

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@bobbill seems inactive, so would appreciate @mods resolution 🙏

bought Ṁ50 YES

The latest version of Gemini is now rated 1379. Just 21 points to go.

Which version of GPT-4?

@maybe_a GPT-4-1106-preview

bought Ṁ50 YES

GPT-4-1106-preview has an Elo of 1250, and the top models are now above 1360, so this market is actually closer than I expected.

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