Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
20
123
1k
2025
21%
chance

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

  • If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.

  • If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.

  • I will not bet in this market.

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Which version of GPT-4?

@maybe_a GPT-4-1106-preview

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