Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
Plus
38
Ṁ18kJan 1
1%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
61% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
65% chance
Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
78% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
83% chance
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
85% chance