Nom Moniker's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Nom Moniker bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Tucker Carlson get a show on ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, Newsmax, NewsNation, OANN or TheBlaze in 2023?NOṀ25
- Will Tucker Carlson start his own YouTube channel in 2023?YESṀ10
- Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
70%
80%
90%