This market will resolve to YES if the Top Trader at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards has 1,000,000 mana in profit before the end of 2023.
🏅 Top traders
Thank you for all the comments and discussions with arguments below, and also to users who reached out in dms 📩. Forgive me for not providing an immediate resolution 🙈, but it's better to be late than incorrect 👌.
Considering all and in a good faith, I'm resolving this market to YES ✅, as it should be according to this market's rules.
Congratulations to profitable traders in this market and to our Manifold Ṁillionaires!
📝 The rules should be clearer, not giving much space to tricks, speculation dramas and uncertain resolutions. I'm all for fostering a culture of precise rules & honest resolutions, and will strive to do better in future markets!
I wish all of you earn Ṁ1,000,000 (1 million mana) profit one day, cheers 🥂!
The criteria has been met a long time ago and there has been much discussion on what to do, but @itsTomekK keeps ghosting this market instead of just MAKING A STATEMENT on what the plan is.
I suggest messaging him on twitter to make an update here on this market.
Reminder for @itsTomekK to resolve this market, seeings as the criteria has been met, and much time has passed.
I agree it should resolve YES, even if Catnee's profit doesn't count, someone will probably hit it.
@levifinkelstein if you can’t see the above reply, it’s from @ShadowyZephyr
“@levifinkelstein Sorry for posting this here, but could you please unblock me? I want to participate in your market but can't
As for the market, I agree it should resolve YES, even if Catnee's profit doesn't count, someone will probably hit it.”
@TobyBW Thanks, I wasn't sure if it blocks replies on other markets lol, I'll delete the original comment now since you reposted it
It looks like three or four of the biggest hitters in my Platinum League have big investments in YES on this market. The latest moves have moved them into the Red for the month and shot me up from fighting for promotion to 1st place in the league.
So if you could all keep betting this market down until the end of May, that would be great!
@SimonGrayson I'll help you out!
@firstuserhere I am kicking myself for not setting up those limit orders I was thinking about earlier today.
@firstuserhere wow this market is still open.
@Mira is certified best trader?
Separate question, why does the slug for the market i posted have "2 mil" in it instead of 1 mil? https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-mira-and-mirabot-break-2-milli
I am in awe.
whereas @Catnee looks like the meat inside a bot sandwich ha!
I suggest asking @ManifoldMarkets , @ian or other admins who are free for 5 mins, to confirm that catnee's profit was legitimate, and NOT a bug
@firstuserhere What makes it look like a bug? It doesn't look like one of those out of no-where spikes to me
Ok fellas I have done a lot of reading and I must say... There is some serious overconfidence in assuming Catnee's 5-minute spike in unrealized profits should count. I see that Tomek has not resolved so I can only assume we are still in play, following these words:
Let's give it some time and space to resolve it correctly, maybe?
Tomek certainly doesn't need another 10 reminders on a question he has already addressed - I personally cannot wait until we have a true fair and undeniable one million profiteer so you can all celebrate properly.
I'm betting NO because nobody is going to reach 1m (you guys are coping hard). Catnee is going to make a series of very big losses (I have seen their profit now, lots of L moments for the cat man) and Marcus is still a longshot chance. You guys think we're getting more whale markets? I can't even have a crumb of fun on those without them getting delisted. I sit here thinking back to the good times when people were making massive donations, or ruining themselves financially because someone called them mean words. Luckily this market is not technically self-resolving, so it has potential to bring back the bloodshed.
I'm very interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on why you want to wait months for a 3% return... Assuming someone can even get there. All in on NO - if your profit gets >900k, I'm praying on your downfall 🙏 🙏
@Gen 5 mins or 1000 mins, catnee crossed 1 million profit. Market doesn't exclude unrealized profits, in fact, most of the top traders have a ton of unrealized profits!
We've given it time, and there's no reason whatsoever to think there was a bug causing spike in catnee's profit, BUT THERE IS reason to say that the subsequent downfall was manipulation. Mira got >120k (ish) profit at the same time catnee lost that profit, 5 mins after people bought YES into this market, and both of them bought NO, citing the bottom comment.
The 1 million profit that catnee earned was credible, and enough to resolve this YES.
@Gen As for why I am waiting months to get a 3% return, I expected, along with Marcus, and many others, for Tomek to resolve it promptly to YES in good faith.
The arguments for NO are flimsy and carry-overs from other markets, none of which have any bearings on this market, and what catnee profit Catnee had AFTER 1 million was achieved is utterly insignificant.
Ok so I did read all the comments and I am interested in what you guys think Tomek means? I did write to invite discussion. There's 6 months to argue though so no need to rush arguments out; give me your best translations:
Let's give it some time and space to resolve it correctly, maybe?
@TobyBW In fact, given all the resolution criteria, this resolves YES. Given tomek's explanations in comments, it resolves YES. In fact, the market was >98% for ALL of May, as entire manifold paused and watched Catnee climb to a MILLION profit, and on discord people applauded their achievement.
Now, they may have been lurking in the shadows wanting more liquidity or to cause chaos and mistrust in the market, but that's part of their plan. But their plan is irrelevant to what @itsTomekK had in mind when he created the market, and the market's resolution criteria have all been met
@Gen The market is 7 days OVERDUE its resolution, not that there's time to wait and discuss. It should've resolved Yesterday.
@firstuserhere I agree with what you're saying, it's all irrelevant to whatever Tomek had in mind, and from what I can see he is wanting to wait for the year to play out before making any decisions?
I agree - if the market hit its resolution criteria it should be resolved. That's why I interpret Tomek's words and behaviour to mean that the market is still in play.
@TobyBW Especially as a trustworthy-ish user
Levina also asked immediately after, to no response
@Catnee I already am 🐱 🔫 🙈
@the others - I did see the discussion, I'm fairly sure Tomek is going to let the market play out given there is 6 months for a "legitimate" or more obvious decision to be solidified. Whether or not you think that is the right decision is best argued with him (as you guys have tried, with no action on his part) rather than with me. I'm just trying to interpret the actions and comments below and make what I think is a good bet
Reminder for @itsTomekK to resolve this market, seeings as the criteria has been met, and the discussion has converged.
@levifinkelstein Reminder to @itsTomekK, again, to resolve this market. The criteria has been met, the discussion has converged.
@JeremiahAlkash And if it is not clear, the resolution is an obvious YES
@JeremiahAlkash The discussion has converged because I stopped writing: The creator responded to my points, and nothing new has occurred in the last 5 days. It seems we will have to wait until the end of 2023 for a decision, since nothing in the description states that it has to be resolved immediately.
@Mira you hold >435,000 shares in the market, and you're the most vocal for the NO side, that's like a poor person wanting money, or like a thirsty guy wanting water. It's natural.
I'd like to hear for NO arguments from people who do not hold top 3 positions as I write this comment. I've done so for the YES side as well to arrive at the conclusion that YES is an obvious and imminent resolution to this market.
Your voice is important, yes, but please, let it us not attach equal meaning to it, than we attach to voices of more ... unbiased parties.
@Mira Description says "This market will resolve to YES if the Top Trader at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards has 1,000,000 mana in profit before the end of 2023."
Someone has had 1M+ profit on leaderboard already and it wasn't any sort of "weird spike", and much time has passed now.
If someone asks "will the sun rise before end of 2023" and then we see the sun rise, we're not gonna wait until the end of the year to resolve it.
I witness the user @Catnee's graph
I do not understand why @itsTomekK you have not resolved this market. @Catnee reached 1 million profit, then as comments below mention, manipulated market to get a lot of liquidity in this market, and trade on that, cleverly. I don't understand how @itsTomekK, as a trustworthy user, you do not take responsibility to resolve this correctly, and let manipulation occur on your market.
Let us analyze the resolution criteria.
"The market resolves to YES if the top trader at leaderboards has 1 million mana in profit before the end of 2023."
The top trader did get 1 million, the top trader did get it in profit, and did get it before 2023.
Every single aspect of the resolution criteria has been fulfilled. I do not understand why this has not resolved here, when on polymarket, or Kalshi or any other platform it would.
@JeremiahAlkash The rules for any other market do not apply to this market, and should not even be part of a discussion, such as the 24 hour rule. There are a lot of markets i have witnessed on Manifold Markets which are the same with little tweaks. And those tweaks do not carry over to their sibling market. And neither should they here. If a user trades here, they trade here, not elsewhere.
@JeremiahAlkash Often times the tweaks are purposeful, designed to offer hedging opportunities, so I agree with you.
A lot of talk about growth and record breaking profits.
Here's a market about record breaking losses:
@itsTomekK Sure. We only see 1M on the profit graph, but the market rules clearly require the Top Trader Entry on the leaderboard to have 1M mana in profit. Can we confirm that Catnee ever had 1M mana on the leaderboard (rather than just on the profit graph)?
@42irrationalist Yeah I posted a pic of the leaderboard when it happened
And if it weren’t on the leaderboard, I would have gotten complaints for misresolving my markets on this topic.
@itsTomekK Isaac also had >1 million profit for 11 hours (and 11 minutes) during WvM. (and appeared on the leaderboard at that time, though it was unclear whether it was weekly profit or total profit)
@itsTomekK all spikes are no longer than 20 minutes, since profits updated at that pace. Imagine that it was not 1000055 profit, but 1550000 profit, at the same time, for the same duration. How would it work in that case?
@Catnee That would be a spike that was possibly caused by a bug. Your profit was gradual over the hours preceding it. There is no evidence it was caused by a bug and is decidedly not a “spike”. These rules aren’t even in the market description, but for your profit it doesn’t matter.
@itsTomekK Do you have a timescale on when you will respond to objections/resolve the market?
@itsTomekK The main evidences NO used were:
A previous iteration of your market(Manifold Leaderboard: Will anyone have Ṁ250,000 profit by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets) specified "24 hours", you linked that market from here, and this detail was pointed out to you in an earlier comment that you didn't object to. So we traded on the impression that you gave and allowed to stand that the profits must be held for 24 hours.
"Held for 24 hours" is common in dozens of similar profit markets, by Jack, you, and others. It's uncommon to find a market that doesn't use this rule. You yourself were aware of it, have used it, and have posted comments consistent with it.
You didn't resolve YES for @IsaacKing who held 1 million in profit for 11 hours due to (Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares? | Manifold Markets) before the market resolved against him and he went 3.8 million in debt. That doesn't seem like 1 million in "actual profit" if it was never realized and he lost in all shortly after, so your non-resolution seems correct. But for consistency, @Catnee 's profit should not count either.
You used the phrase "actual profit" in your comment, so transitory or unrealized profits shouldn't count:
You might be biased because the YES holders have their entire fortunes locked up in YES and were probably annoyingly pinging you on Discord. But their annoyance shouldn't affect market resolution.
> YES holders have their entire fortunes locked up in YES
YES holders should see some jesus and by that mean make prediction on real world events rather than self-resolving markets, meta-markets and whatnots.
I demand more prediction markets on touching grass!
@Mira A few rebuttals:
There is no mention of 24 hours on this market, so you can't expect it to hold here. For example, I hadn't ever heard of that until just now and was making trades without that knowledge, so you making trades on that assumption is just poor judgement. (This is also supported by the comment we are replying to.)
I can't see into Tomek's head, but to me, the phrase "actual profit" was used exclusively in contrast to profit from a bug. Not in contrast to unrealized profit. (This is also supported by the comment we are replying to.)
At least in the Manifold Discord, Tomek received only 4 mentions and replies about this since Catnee hit 1 million. These were all in a 30 minute time span right after he replied to a screenshot of the 1 million mana. In the middle of this, he even thanked them for pinging about different market that needed resolution. I wouldn't call this annoying, since he was active on Discord at the time. What I can't speak to is whether people sent DMs on Discord and Twitter, but I'd say that if people did this, they were somewhat justified.
@42irrationalist while not a real world prediction, I'd say that this is a bit less degenerate than self-resolving/whalebait markets. It's an important milestone in Manifold.
Thank you all for pointing out inconsistencies and arguments for both YES/NO sides.
@Mira - thank you for posting @IsaacKing's example. Unfortunately, he held $1M+ for... 23 hours.... I don't have that much time to spend hours daily on Manifold, but I guess playing some games must be fun and provide real predictive value to the world ;)
I'm not sure whether the 24-hour rule from other markets should apply here, but I understand the reasoning.
Through all inconsistency, I'm glad there is no premise suggesting that this market should be resolved as soon as someone earns $1M+, but only if it is done in 2023... so let's give it some time and space to resolve it correctly, maybe?
I’m very confused about the last paragraph. I think you’re talking about profit earned in 2023. I am also glad that idea is off the table, since you clarified it’s about the all time leaderboard.
What do you mean by “give it some time and space to resolve it correctly”? Earlier you said “By market rules it should resolve YES” which I don’t think has changed. Only you have the power to resolve it. I see no reason to let this market continue once it’s resolution criteria have passed.
@itsTomekK "so let's give it some time and space to resolve it correctly, maybe?" What does this mean? Can you please just be precise about what your plans are and when you're gonna resolve this market? And have you followed the discussion in the other comments?