Will anyone earn Ṁ1,000,000 ( 1 million mana) profit by the end of 2023?
resolved May 29

This market will resolve to YES if the Top Trader at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards has 1,000,000 mana in profit before the end of 2023.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

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Thank you for all the comments and discussions with arguments below, and also to users who reached out in dms 📩. Forgive me for not providing an immediate resolution 🙈, but it's better to be late than incorrect 👌.

Considering all and in a good faith, I'm resolving this market to YES ✅, as it should be according to this market's rules.

Congratulations to profitable traders in this market and to our Manifold Ṁillionaires!


📝 The rules should be clearer, not giving much space to tricks, speculation dramas and uncertain resolutions. I'm all for fostering a culture of precise rules & honest resolutions, and will strive to do better in future markets!

I wish all of you earn Ṁ1,000,000 (1 million mana) profit one day, cheers 🥂!

predicted YES

The criteria has been met a long time ago and there has been much discussion on what to do, but @itsTomekK keeps ghosting this market instead of just MAKING A STATEMENT on what the plan is.

I suggest messaging him on twitter to make an update here on this market.

predicted YES

Reminder for @itsTomekK to resolve this market, seeings as the criteria has been met, and much time has passed.

I agree it should resolve YES, even if Catnee's profit doesn't count, someone will probably hit it.

@levifinkelstein if you can’t see the above reply, it’s from @ShadowyZephyr

@levifinkelstein Sorry for posting this here, but could you please unblock me? I want to participate in your market but can't

As for the market, I agree it should resolve YES, even if Catnee's profit doesn't count, someone will probably hit it.”

@TobyBW Thanks, I wasn't sure if it blocks replies on other markets lol, I'll delete the original comment now since you reposted it

It looks like three or four of the biggest hitters in my Platinum League have big investments in YES on this market. The latest moves have moved them into the Red for the month and shot me up from fighting for promotion to 1st place in the league.

So if you could all keep betting this market down until the end of May, that would be great!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@SimonGrayson I'll help you out!

predicted YES
sold Ṁ182 of NO

@firstuserhere I am kicking myself for not setting up those limit orders I was thinking about earlier today.

@firstuserhere wow this market is still open.


@Mira is certified best trader?

Separate question, why does the slug for the market i posted have "2 mil" in it instead of 1 mil? https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-mira-and-mirabot-break-2-milli

sold Ṁ199 of NO

I am in awe.

predicted YES

whereas @Catnee looks like the meat inside a bot sandwich ha!

predicted YES

I suggest asking @ManifoldMarkets , @ian or other admins who are free for 5 mins, to confirm that catnee's profit was legitimate, and NOT a bug

@firstuserhere What makes it look like a bug? It doesn't look like one of those out of no-where spikes to me

bought Ṁ1,075 of NO

Ok fellas I have done a lot of reading and I must say... There is some serious overconfidence in assuming Catnee's 5-minute spike in unrealized profits should count. I see that Tomek has not resolved so I can only assume we are still in play, following these words:

Let's give it some time and space to resolve it correctly, maybe?

Tomek certainly doesn't need another 10 reminders on a question he has already addressed - I personally cannot wait until we have a true fair and undeniable one million profiteer so you can all celebrate properly.

I'm betting NO because nobody is going to reach 1m (you guys are coping hard). Catnee is going to make a series of very big losses (I have seen their profit now, lots of L moments for the cat man) and Marcus is still a longshot chance. You guys think we're getting more whale markets? I can't even have a crumb of fun on those without them getting delisted. I sit here thinking back to the good times when people were making massive donations, or ruining themselves financially because someone called them mean words. Luckily this market is not technically self-resolving, so it has potential to bring back the bloodshed.

I'm very interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on why you want to wait months for a 3% return... Assuming someone can even get there. All in on NO - if your profit gets >900k, I'm praying on your downfall 🙏 🙏

sold Ṁ3,527 of YES

@Gen 5 mins or 1000 mins, catnee crossed 1 million profit. Market doesn't exclude unrealized profits, in fact, most of the top traders have a ton of unrealized profits!

We've given it time, and there's no reason whatsoever to think there was a bug causing spike in catnee's profit, BUT THERE IS reason to say that the subsequent downfall was manipulation. Mira got >120k (ish) profit at the same time catnee lost that profit, 5 mins after people bought YES into this market, and both of them bought NO, citing the bottom comment.

The 1 million profit that catnee earned was credible, and enough to resolve this YES.

predicted YES

@Gen As for why I am waiting months to get a 3% return, I expected, along with Marcus, and many others, for Tomek to resolve it promptly to YES in good faith.

The arguments for NO are flimsy and carry-overs from other markets, none of which have any bearings on this market, and what catnee profit Catnee had AFTER 1 million was achieved is utterly insignificant.

@Gen Tomek has not addressed this properly. He did not explain exactly why Isaac and Catnees profits don’t count. He has not given clear resolution criteria. And Catnee’s losses are very clearly intentional.

predicted NO


Ok so I did read all the comments and I am interested in what you guys think Tomek means? I did write to invite discussion. There's 6 months to argue though so no need to rush arguments out; give me your best translations:

Let's give it some time and space to resolve it correctly, maybe?

predicted YES

@TobyBW In fact, given all the resolution criteria, this resolves YES. Given tomek's explanations in comments, it resolves YES. In fact, the market was >98% for ALL of May, as entire manifold paused and watched Catnee climb to a MILLION profit, and on discord people applauded their achievement.

Now, they may have been lurking in the shadows wanting more liquidity or to cause chaos and mistrust in the market, but that's part of their plan. But their plan is irrelevant to what @itsTomekK had in mind when he created the market, and the market's resolution criteria have all been met

predicted YES

@Gen The market is 7 days OVERDUE its resolution, not that there's time to wait and discuss. It should've resolved Yesterday.

predicted NO

@firstuserhere I agree with what you're saying, it's all irrelevant to whatever Tomek had in mind, and from what I can see he is wanting to wait for the year to play out before making any decisions?

I agree - if the market hit its resolution criteria it should be resolved. That's why I interpret Tomek's words and behaviour to mean that the market is still in play.

@Gen I literally don’t know what he meant. Immediately after he said that, I asked what he meant. He didn’t respond. I understand that we can’t expect people to always be online, but it’s his responsibility to clarify.

predicted YES

@TobyBW Especially as a trustworthy-ish user

predicted NO

@Gen what do you mean "lots of L moments for the cat man" i invite you to bet against me if you are so sure

Levina also asked immediately after, to no response

predicted NO

@Catnee I already am 🐱 🔫 🙈

@the others - I did see the discussion, I'm fairly sure Tomek is going to let the market play out given there is 6 months for a "legitimate" or more obvious decision to be solidified. Whether or not you think that is the right decision is best argued with him (as you guys have tried, with no action on his part) rather than with me. I'm just trying to interpret the actions and comments below and make what I think is a good bet