Will anyone profit by at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?

Isaac

137

closes 2024

38%

chance

ALL

I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.

Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.

Simlar markets on various profit values:

Manifold

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Keeping Score

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PseudonymousAlt

A whale, or mega whale, could easily manipulate the market below because of the limit orders at 1% to make a million bucks profit

goldenes56

What was the highest profit recorded so far on a "real" market?

Isaac

I think this one.

https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi

Joshua sold Ṁ118 NO from 36% to 38%

David Bolin bought Ṁ100 NO from 38% to 36%

Tim P bought Ṁ44 NO at 38% 🎁

nina bought Ṁ100 NO from 40% to 38%

nina bought Ṁ100 NO at 40%

Daggy bought Ṁ50 NO at 40%

Loche bought Ṁ30 NO at 40% 🎁

Alex Lien bought Ṁ6 NO at 40% 🎁

Kit Redgrave sold Ṁ113 YES from 41% to 40%

Trong sold Ṁ119 YES from 45% to 41%

Trong bought Ṁ54 YES at 45% 🎁

JGY sold Ṁ40 YES from 46% to 45%

Tyler bought Ṁ11 YES at 46% 🎁

JGY bought Ṁ41 YES at 46% 🎁

Pat Scott🩴 created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 36%

Hazepski bought Ṁ29 NO at 46% 🎁

Joshua bought Ṁ100 NO from 48% to 46%

Darj bought Ṁ10 YES at 48%

Marcus Abramovitch sold Ṁ133 YES from 52% to 48%

No Man's Friend sold Ṁ8 NO at 52%

Pat Scott🩴 sold Ṁ138 NO from 48% to 52%

Wobbles bought Ṁ8 YES at 48% 🎁

KermitGoose bought Ṁ5 YES at 48% 🎁

Trong bought Ṁ75 YES at 48% 🎁

CodeandSolder bought Ṁ19 NO at 48% 🎁

Jeff B.-K. bought Ṁ7 YES at 48% 🎁

Anju Aoi filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 YES at 45%

Genzy bought Ṁ27 YES at 48% 🎁

Alex B. Goode sold Ṁ13 YES at 48%

Alex B. Goode bought Ṁ14 YES at 48% 🎁

Nico D bought Ṁ50 NO from 49% to 48%

RC filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 40%

RC created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 60%

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ1 YES at 49%

Karsh sold Ṁ77 NO from 47% to 49%

Andrew G bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 47%

Karsh sold Ṁ53 NO from 46% to 48%

Karsh bought Ṁ45 YES from 45% to 46%

Anju Aoi bought Ṁ5 YES at 45%

Zardoru sold Ṁ28 NO from 44% to 45%

Zardoru sold Ṁ22 NO from 43% to 44%

Haiden B sold Ṁ1,086 YES from 66% to 43%

Mima Kirigoe bought Ṁ20 YES from 65% to 66%

Oskar bought Ṁ10 NO from 66% to 65%

Kit Redgrave created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 70%

Kit Redgrave bought Ṁ50 YES from 65% to 66%

na pewno sold Ṁ18 NO from 64% to 65%

Селенов Егор bought Ṁ2 NO at 64%

na pewno sold Ṁ23 NO from 63% to 64%

Zardoru sold Ṁ29 NO from 62% to 63%

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