resolved Nov 3

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While there is some argument to be made that he could plead guilty to some other thing before the 2033 closing date, I think there is sufficient evidence from the market and context of the market's creation that this one event is what was being asked about. Resolving No.

predicted NO

@Eliza Thanks! That sounds very sensible.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

can someone resolve pls

predicted NO

Guilty. No plea.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon нет!

All these @Gigacasting markets are such trash. Open until 2034? No clarification of resolution criteria? Not answering any questions in the comments? Still actively trading on Manifold? Yes. Screw you my guy. And by the way, the giga press is garbage too.

predicted NO

@EarlKelly I so wish he was still around to read this!!

predicted NO

@EarlKelly His active trades are probably limit orders executing.

predicted YES

@BTE appears to be the case

bought Ṁ166 of NO

@BTE You know he's not around because @EarlKelly would have had an instant block from @Gigacasting 😂

predicted NO

@Gigacasting how would you resolve an Alford plea?

predicted YES

@Adam He’s no longer active.

From what I’ve read an Alford plea is a guilty plea so that should count.

bought Ṁ530 of NO

Just like to say, Gee whiz am i glad I managed to get out of this market. I bought @MatthewBarnett's explanation, but when I looked into it later, the biggest frauds didn't mostly plead - it was a mix. Also some plead immediately, the closer we get to the trial the worse it gets for YES. Lastly SBF does not seem to want to plead.

All that together doesn't lead me to think it's 55% or whatever we were sitting at. OOOF. I tell you, OOF.

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, but it seems like he's still betting on high-stakes, low-probability outcomes — doing silly double-or-nothings again. Maybe he'll win and be eternally convinced that that's how he should approach everything in life.

He is allowed to enter a deal after the trial starts, though.

@NathanpmYoung I don't understand, what new info has come out?

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry People forgot about it, now coming back to it with a fresh perspective with the trial starting soon.

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry Well he hasn't plead in the last month. that's new info. But mainly that the base rate is very different to what I thought it was

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung I was wrong but I don't think the base rate was really that far off from 55% or whatever we were at. Sometimes people deviate from the base rate. It happens.

sold Ṁ199 of YES

@NathanpmYoung For what it's worth, it looks like I lost about 1.5k from this market, which is one of my worst trades ever. But on the other hand, it's basically pocket change compared to what I made recently the LK-99 market. So I'm not feeling too bad.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else and isn't going to start being normal just because he's in court.
Admittedly I know very little about this issue but I'm willing to sell all my 1680 NO shares at around 13%

predicted NO

@MatthewBarnett also 3 of the 4 FTX core conspirators pled guilty, which seems like a reasonable reference class.

FWIW my NO thesis was mostly a matter of placing less weight on base rates or appeals to rationality of pleading (which I think did favour YES at ~55%) and much more weight on evidence of SBF’s self-delusion; excessive risk-taking; narcissism; vindictiveness; general atypicality etc. etc.

bought Ṁ150 of YES

@NathanpmYoung since you seem to be trying to dump your shares you might be interested in betting down /DrewVolpe/will-sam-bankmanfried-plead-guilty-6890275c1919