https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/unlv-shooting-12-06-23/h_3d711b37389f4cb82c07fe91249bd68f

https://www.newscentermaine.com/amp/article/news/local/lewiston-auburn/lewiston-maine-mass-shooting-victim-critical-condition-stable-cmmc/97-222a2939-5074-4243-94d7-3f31da8f2ee0

All Maine shooting victims at CMMC upgraded from critical condition

The hospital said all three patients treated there have been upgraded from critical condition.

Bunch of buy orders at 17/16 if anyone wants to bet it back down to its historical likelihood of under 10% in the next 2 months.

@Panfilo

Edit: I originally misread the OP as 10% not under 10%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/476101/worst-mass-shootings-in-the-us/

They've increased in frequency with five in the last ten years. Still, using back of napkin math for the last ten years gives a 1/2 chance annually. 1/6 x 1/2 should give us 1/12 or 8ish% odds of one occuring by end of year.

@VerySeriousPoster probably 'historical' as in where it was at before Maine

@VerySeriousPoster last I checked, 8% is "under" 10%

@AlQuinn ... I'm an idiot.

@VerySeriousPoster for what it's worth at least you're not the kind of idiot who dropped 3k mana on this market based on breaking (incorrect) news agreeing with your earlier prediction

@dgga 3K mistakes are a rite of passage; here's mine:

@AlQuinn

Say someone is injured in a shooting incident before the end of the year and dies sometime after 2023/12/31. Would they count towards the tally?

@JavierPrieto No since they won't be killed during 2023.

Steven Littleson said at least three patients remain in critical condition at the Central Maine Medical Center in Lewiston and five others are in stable after the mass shooting.

@CromlynGames and shooter found dead from suicide. 19?

@CromlynGames the suicide only counts if it took place on the same day, which is currently unclear

@Ramble I would say it is part of the same “incident”

@Ramble however, it is clearly not in the same city, as required below by market creator. The location where he was found dead is 3.6 miles outside of Lewiston city limits in Lisbon Falls.

If the shooter kills more before capture, will that be considered part of the same incident?

@JimHays below it says same person same city same day

Depressing to the extreme. I was hoping not to win and lose this one.

@Nostradamnedus Maine gov confirms 18. Reopen?

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/maine-governor-confirms-18-people-killed-in-lewiston-shootings-196455493926

@Abraxas yeah, looks like reopening seems reasonable.

@AndrewG seconded -all reports I'm seeing now say 18 dead and 3 in critical condition at the hospital. This may resolve yes if only 1 of them makes it, but as it is the resolution criteria have not been met.

News sources reporting less than 20 dead why is this resolved?

@ChadwickMiller Some sources report "at least 14", others "at least 22". IMHO, this question should be closed but not resolved until we get firmer numbers.