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So glad I sold at 55%. Apple is stubborn

I'm resolving NO now, since I don't think any major announcements will happen, given that they weren't covered in the keynote.

@Gabrielle technically, WWDC 2023 ends on June 9th, so it still might happen, though I agree, the probability is low.

As of the end of the iOS section of the keynote, none of the announcements seem like they count as a "major update". The closest thing is that you can continue talking to Siri without needing to say "hey" each time, which doesn't count as major.

Apple has been working on a crawler / search engine for some time, and it’s suggested that this will be part of Siri, which is how Apple tends to brand all features related to acquiring information or statistics.

Making Siri be a Large Language Model would sure make it drastically more useful. It would finally live up to the Siri commercials from when Apple launched it 12 years ago. I think I predict it will take Apple longer to either catch up LLM-wise or at least train up something that doesn't embarrass them by hallucinating too much. (Or at some point consumers will just understand that LLMs hallucinate sometimes and that will stop being a dealbreaker.)

So I'm sure Siri eventually gets LLMified but June 2023 seems unlikely. Add some chance of "major updates" I can't think of, and that puts me at I guess a bit lower than this market's current 36%?

@dreev I have a similar market for LLM and Siri

@dreev I think LLM specifically is not that likely but an update at all is probable

Would you say there has been a major update in the past 12 years?

@esusatyo I believe the three major updates were in iOS 10, when they added limited thirty party integrations, in iOS 11 when they enabled more thirty party integrations and follow-up questions, and in iOS 15 when they moved processing onto the device. This implies a base rate of 30% or so.

There’s been a lot of innovation with AI assistants in the last year, so Apple has more reason than ever to announce some new step forward, but I don’t know if they have been working on developing a language model, and I don’t know which other directions they could take. It’s always possible to be surprised though, and Apple likes to keep its development pretty private, so I personally see this as about 50/50. (I’m not buying any shares, so that I can resolve without bias.)

@Gabrielle Alright thank you. I don’t see anything major coming to be honest and I’m not an insider. I’ll vote NO.