@JeffKaufman I'm assuming they'd advertise at as such so it would be hard to deny. Good question though.

@SamuelRichardson Google also probably would want clear value-adds for things added to search products, and the current SOTA text generation models are plenty eager to spit out incorrect or hallucinated detail

@nfd I don’t know how to imagine it correctly enough, but my naive intuition is that an LLM with live access to external datasets, and maybe some “hidden sketchbook” faculty, where it could invisibly iterate over drafting answers and checking sources, might have better results.

The larger question is when Google could deliver this product. I don’t claim it’s a good analogy, just as an illustration: Gmail was developed for some 1–3 years and then spent another ~3 years in a (more and more easy to get into) invitation-only beta stage. They have been speaking of a private beta again in this context. Also, will it be directly integrated into Google Search, or exist as a different service?

@yaboi69 I agree, the timeline is the main thing here. Knowing big tech well from the inside - six months is a ridiculously short timeframe to change something as fundamental as the Google.com search page. I’d be surprised if there would even be a clear alignment on interface by then.

It’s not they couldn’t technically do it by the end of June, it’s that you don’t take shortcuts on a hundred billion dollar product.

@TomCohen That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessarily mean general availability to all public, just that it has an integration of some kind. I.e. rolled out for a very small, select group of beta testers would qualify this market as a YES.

@SamuelRichardson does Google ever roll out testing features to Search to the general public like this?

@nfd They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes to the adverts. However, I don't doubt they'd follow a similar pattern for integrating a chatbot.

I would not expect a radically different UI to what they have now, i.e. you still execute a search from a text box on the homepage to get started.

I think the main thing that might resolve this market as a no is if it doesn't act as a chatbot does (i.e. the backwards and forwards). For example, I could imagine a set of buttons that you click instead of typing back to the bot to explore further results.

@SamuelRichardson earlier in the comments, @agentydragon said that the chatbot "Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for..."

@mndrix Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.

@SamuelRichardson I figured "very small, select group of beta testers" was a very different claim than "some very small, procedurally-selected A/B test group" personally

@nfd That could well be true however it is totally up to the whims of @agentydragon I assume based on comments they've made now and will make in the future as to how this market resolves.

Not that I'm bitter 😂 IMHO this market should resolve based on the criteria stated when the question was created (Will Google Search include a chatbot by end of June 2023?) but this is a problem that is fairly common on the site.

@JPAddison if Google assistant becomes available to talk to via the Google search form (with ability to have a multi-turn back-and-forth), that would count

To clarify, chatbot has to be usable via keyboard from a PC

@agentydragon Aside from the "keyboard" requirement this works today. On my PC I can click the "mic" option and do:

[who is the president]
> Joe Biden

[how tall is he]

> he is six feet tall

@Thagliou what dump?

@jonsimon Yesterday, Mira exited large positions in a number of markets to make a play in https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/this-market-resolves-yes-unless-tra-d8a8536ea76a.

@k3nneth BERT is a language model, not a chatbot. See my youtube video for an explanation of the differences. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whbNCSZb3c8

@PatrickDelaney i’m well aware of the difference lol. you should be more specific for those that aren’t.

@k3nneth My video goes through it extensively, but in short:

• Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input being tons of scraped text from the web and the output being a string of next word probability. So the LLM can be integrated with an app but it's not an app itself.

• Chatbot is literally an application which takes in real time text and feeds out real-time text, it could be instructed to always give the answer, "YES" or it could have a random number generator and just answer "YES" or "NO" or it could be a tree-based question and answer structure, or it could be powered with a LLM such as ChatGPT.

• Google having BERT on the back end of its search does not mean chatbot, that would mean, a Search engine with a LLM attached - two completely different applications.

@PatrickDelaney

Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input being tons of scraped text from the web and the output being a string of next word probability

That is literally not true. BERT is not an auto-regressive model, it does not produce next word probabilities. It is an encoder-only model, one of whose fine-tuning tasks is to guess specific masked words using both preceding and following words as input.

If you described BERT that way in your YouTube video, you should add a correction.

@ConnorMcCormick based on the comments @agentydragon madebelow[1], your scenario would resolve Yes if there's to it from the homepage.

1: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo#5iPHky4EE2roD3aMROru

@ChrisGillett my biggest question is whether Google will just make PaLM, LaMBDA, or Chinchilla publicly accessible somewhere. If so, that could happen very fast. They've had great language models for a long time but have been too cautious/fearful/gridlocked to make them available externally.

@A It would be hard for a chatbot to make bing dumber

@mndrix has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog

@agentydragon If there’s a small link on the bottom that calls it out (like they do sometimes for sales on Pixel phones) for a few days, would that resolve positively?

@JackGaller let's go with yes

@mndrix does "accessible from" mean a single click from the home page? I'm assuming it can't be typing "google chatbot" into the search field and the clicking the first link, but could it be "click the grid of nine dots in the upper left, then click one of the 40 products"?