Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?
resolved Jul 1

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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Let’s see if community management believes makers can override title/description criteria in a comment

@ElmerFudd Manifold staff let market creators get away with too much stuff imo

@ShadowyZephyr Yikes. I don’t want to cost innocent traders mana. I hope admins will resolve NA or Yes after I resolve No. If they don’t I guess manifold policy really is that comments override title/description.

@DavidChee should I have lost half my portfolio, my all time profits and my league standing because I didn’t consider that the maker could’ve changed the criteria in a long-buried comment when I invested?

predicted NO

@ElmerFudd it seems a little reckless to pour that much of your portfolio into a single market without bothering to read the author's comments on the market

@MarcusAbramovitch I didn’t think makers could change the explicit criteria in the title/description in the comments. I won’t tag you know who again, but I want him to clarify if that’s manifold policy.

@ElmerFudd Mistakes were made in this market. Both by the author and by traders.

@ShadowyZephyr I don’t think I was mistaken to invest here. There’s alpha between 97% and 100%. I don’t blame the maker for sticking with their old comment - some traders back in March invested on the basis of that comment. But admins should’ve resolved NA, unless manifold takes the position that comments can override the title/description.

I agree, but it should've been resolved N/A a long time ago. But it wasn't, people kept betting on it with the new & different resolution criteria.

predicted NO

@ElmerFudd Manifold's main policy is that market creator usually has the call

predicted NO


predicted NO

I'm not quite enough of a whale. :3

Only lost 1.4k mana 🙏

predicted YES

This market is misresolved according to the initial name, description, and the market creator’s comment

predicted NO

@ms LOL. How many are gonna say this??

predicted YES

@BTE If only we could bet on it…

predicted NO

I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution power only for it to be a tease when I really want to use it?!?! @Austin @ian @DavidChee

@BTE The market creator is active, you'll have to wait a bit :)

predicted NO

@BTE you're basically wearing a digital chastity cage 🐓

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING It’s got my mana hood !!

predicted NO

should i just do it

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I will if you don’t! LOL!!

predicted NO
predicted NO
predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch @BTE the market creator has (understandably) gone inactive this last month so I wouldn't hold out hope for a quick or timely resolve to NO here.

EDIT - I was totally mistaken. Apologies!

predicted NO

@Lorxus That’s not true. They have been increasingly active for the last week or so in fact. I think prior to that they may have been MIA for awhile.