Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before May 15th?
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resolved May 15
Resolved
NO

This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim thier land before May 15th.

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Fedor avatar
Fedorpredicted YES

I've created 2 markets with longer time horizons in which I think the counter offensive should be happening.

eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151

Resolved as no based on discussion below. Thanks for playing everyone!

eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151

After reviewing the current news situation I am still inclined to resolve this no.

The spirit of the question was whether the large scale counter attack was clear and obvious.

I understand there are rumblings here and there on telegram chats, but if it were actually clear and obvious everyone would know and it would be on the news.

If anyone has differing thoughts, please post them as a reply to this comment. I am happy to leave this unresolved for a short period, but telling me the counter offensive ‘started’ but we just need to wait a few weeks/days to see if it’s really a counter offensive doesn’t count. If it were clear and obvious we wouldn’t have to wait and see.

In addition when I realized the answer might be close I liquidated my position to avoid any bias on my end.

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardpredicted YES

@eclair4151 As the person with the largest amount of YES shares here, I fully agree with you and think that this should be resolved NO. I'd consider a large scale offensive to be launched when the serious battles have begun, probing attacks and localized counters are not sufficient even if they lead to a larger offensive later on.

Fedor avatar
Fedorpredicted YES

@eclair4151 I hold a little yes (only 1mana worth) and agree.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicted YES

@eclair4151 I pretty much agree and I think it's a NO, it does not look like in the spirit of this question the counter-offensive has started. The media consensus seems to be that Ukraine is doing significant preparation before the main counter-offensive.

I still think it's worth leaving it unresolved for a day or so just to see if there are more reports and what would be the media consensus tomorrow.

CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barrypredicted YES

@eclair4151 I have hope, but tiny, tiny amounts. As another large YES holder, I also agree a NO resolution is fair. Drat.


Cloudbox avatar
Cloud boxpredicted YES

@eclair4151 resolve as no.

eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151

With 1 day left I would still not classify this as a large scale counter offense personally. Unless something crazy happens tonight I am leaning towards no, but will leave the market unresolved temporarily to allow for discussion.

Just bakhmut doesn’t count, as the description states it needs to be clear and large.

johnleoks avatar
johnleokspredicted NO

@eclair4151 If there was really a large scale counter offensive, EVERY major outlet would be reporting on it. You would see the news everywhere and it would be trending on Twitter. Not to mention, Zelensky himself said that they are not ready to mount a counter offensive just 2 days ago.

eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151

@johnleoks Agreed

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistsold Ṁ24 of YES

@johnleoks

> Not to mention, Zelensky himself said that they are not ready to mount a counter offensive just 2 days ago.

No way a president of a country waging a war would attempt to mislead their enemy! I'd be pretty surprised if Zelensky would give away information by confirming that Ukraine is ready to start it.

> If there was really a large scale counter offensive, EVERY major outlet would be reporting on it

There are some reports on it, here is CNN:
> Ukrainian forces have begun "shaping" operations for counteroffensive, senior US military official says
> These shaping operations could continue for many days before the bulk of any planned Ukrainian offensive, according to the senior US military official.

There are reports of fighting intensifying in different parts of the front, not just Bakhmut.

If you want my personal opinion, it doesn't seem like the counter-offensive have started. The media consensus seems that Ukraine is preparing for it / doing some "shaping activities". But I think it may be starting. IMO, it's best to wait for a few days before resolving this market to see if the current events are going to look different in the light of future events. The big difference between this counter-offensive and the 2022 one is that Russian forces are prepared for defence, so this counter-offensive is going to be gradual, we will not be seeing territorial gains for a while.

Berg avatar
Berg

@eclair4151 some Russian outlets claiming that the counteroffensive us already begun.

How the market can be resolved if we don't know the actual situation on the ground?

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksbought Ṁ2,100 of NO

There's no large scale counter offensive so far, I would be shocked if it happens within 20 hours from now.

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@johnleoks There is a counteroffensive right now around Bachmut. They have taken over 20 square kilometers in 2 days, definitely more to come. This is about the start date of a counteroffensive. We might not know how big this is until the assault stops, and that could be in weeks. Too early to say it is not happening. In fact, I think it is likely that it is. 5% is definitely too low.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@Birger It's not a large scale counteroffensive as has been admitted by Zelensky himself.

JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkespredicted YES

@Akzzz123 I know this ferocious copium, but we have to at least admit the possibility that when Zelensky talks about military matters he is not being completely honest

Birger avatar
Birgerbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Birger This is too high to be a small counteroffensive.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

We can't resolve the market on speculation but on ground reality. You can check ISW feed. They are calling it a limited counteroffensive.

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@Akzzz123 I agree on this, no speculation part, and so I would like us to wait and see how big this counteroffensive gets before we jump to conclusions based on nothing but dubious press releases.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@Birger Sure, but remember that the large scale counteroffensive should start before May 15

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@Akzzz123 But counteroffensive has already started.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@Birger But if it's not large scale by May 15 that means the market should resolve NO as per the resolution criteria mentioned

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@Akzzz123 Maybe we are going off different definitions of 'large' here. I would think it clearly qualifies as there is a significant allocation of troops, and they are taking large amounts of land back.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@Birger ISW disagrees with your assessment

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@Birger If we take Kherson as a starting point, the Bakhmuh counteroffensive is likely going to take back at least half of what was taken there. If that is not large, I don't know what is?

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

The market resolves based on the scale of counteroffensive before May 15, not on the speculative scale of the counteroffensive it may end up being.

JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkespredicted YES

@Akzzz123 This might be quite hard to do actually? If on the 15th @eclair4151 believes there is a counteroffensive of indeterminate size, and waits for more information, then by the 17th its clear that a large scale counteroffensive is underway, it could be very hard to determine when the largeness of it started.

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@Akzzz123 I cannot disagree more. It says 'launch.' It is the start of a large counteroffensive, and we won't know how big it is until it ends.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@JoshuaWilkes It can be determined by the number of active fronts, estimates of the size of the mobilization which is monitored daily by organisations like ISW. That's why there should ideally be a more objective criteria defined.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@Birger It was clear the early counteroffensive were large scale early on. You don't need to wait for its outcome to determine how big it was.

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@Akzzz123 This is the 3rd largest counteroffensive so far. I would think that qualifies as large.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO

@Birger Sure, good luck