Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 21
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES, if, in my sole opinion, it seems abundantly clear that support for "AI" (an umbrella term for all the technologies, and, frankly marketing/branding associated with the term), becomes politically polarized along left/right lines.

It doesn't matter which side becomes "pro" AI or "anti" AI, just that each one picks a side and starts visibly yelling at the other, and that one's allegiance to left/right politics starts to drive people's opinions about whether they are pro or anti AI, and vice versa.

This is especially the case if you express an opinion about AI and people immediately assume you must belong to either the left/right based solely on that statement.

Dec 26, 5:28pm: Will the left/right culture war come for AI? → Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?

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@LarsDoucet You wanna resolve this one, since it's opinion-based? I think it's a pretty clear no, personally.

The whole premise of this market is wrongheaded. Framing the "culture war" as "it's not a culture war if it's only right-wing pundits calling AI woke, we also need a leftie to say something good about it" is no use. We already have right-wing pundits calling AI "woke" and "ChatDNC". DeSantis was for AI before he was against it.

I suspect a lot of traders in this market have trouble imagining that smart, numerate, AI-savvy people like themselves could ever find themselves on wrong end of mass bullying from people who are less smart, buy lottery tickets, watch too much cable TV. But that's exactly how things are shaping up. The call is coming from inside the house.

That's why I made this one

@ClubmasterTransparent The right is calling AI woke, but the left is calling it reactionary. They both hate it, and out of convenience/habit label it as aligned with the other side, but clearly that's not what's actually going on - hearing someone just say 'AI bad' doesn;t tell you which side of the partisan fence they're on, which is the essence of a partisan culture war issue.

@AngolaMaldives Thank you for engaging. We are using different definitions of "the right," "the left," and "culture war." I created another market that I consider better framed.

predicted NO

@ClubmasterTransparent why do you consider it better framed? From my perception it could already resolve YES.

@TiredCliche It needs five examples from the general public. If you have any please put them there. So far we have a bunch of pundits and Elon Musk yelling. This could easily spill into vigilantism, family estrangements, people self-censoring and boomers yelling at each other on FB but AFAIK this isn't happening

Yet.

predicted NO

@ClubmasterTransparent Oh, I see, so it has to be IRL? Thanks

@TiredCliche It's not a war if there's no foot soldiers.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ70 NO at 3%
bought Ṁ70 of NO

@jgyou counterpoint: trump is also alleging that videos of him stumbling over words are AI generated https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111525814220204431

@jgyou I'm pretty sure that's a joke.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@IsaacKing Agreed. With Donald Trump there's only one side, his side, and if you're not on it he will trash talk you. Donald Trump promising to undo something Joe Biden did doesn't really mean anything new. It's meaningless reactionary behavior. I might as well interpret a cavern wall as agreeing with me for echoing back my shouts. You'd have to be pretty dumb to believe that Donald Trump's promise means he is honestly on the side of AI acceleration and open source. Out of respect for the authors intelligence, I interpret their tweet as tongue in cheek.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Beff Jezos was doxxed by Forbes today in a hit piece on e/acc which touches on lots of culture war talking points. https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilybaker-white/2023/12/01/who-is-basedbeffjezos-the-leader-of-effective-accelerationism-eacc/?sh=1db87d807a13

@TomFinnie Sure but is it in any way explicitly left vs right coded with pro and anti forces lined up on either side?

@LarsDoucet Yeah, the Forbes article said that doxxing was bad because it was sexist, and that what Forbes did couldn't be doxing because it wasn't sexist. e/acc is a right-libertarian movement, and they're playing directly into the techbro caricature that people like Timnit Gebru and Emily Torres are constantly attacking.

IDK what's going to happen with AI safety, but unrestrained AI acceleration is looking pretty safely right wing.

predicted YES

@LarsDoucet e/acc is the most pro-AI movement, and those parts of left who are aware of it clearly hate it (because tech bros, techno-capital machine, Nick Land and so on). Another point: Trump said he will reverse Biden's executive order on AI because of censorship. So there's rift already, it's just not very apparent to public yet.

@BairAiushin Still doesn’t seem very salient to me on a large scale as you say, which is a key feature of culture war

predicted YES

@LarsDoucet Fair enough. I think 2024 market will resolve YES.

predicted NO

@BairAiushin I don't think I have ever heard of Nick Land before.

predicted YES

I have a position in this one though.

predicted YES

People two "Culture War In 2024?" markets are open and what better time to take a view than now? I will not bet in my own market linked below.

https://manifold.markets/ClubmasterTransparent/will-the-culture-war-come-for-ai-be?r=Q2x1Ym1hc3RlclRyYW5zcGFyZW50

predicted NO

Since 2023 market is on track to resolve to NO, here's one for 2024

bought Ṁ20 of YES

All that has to happen to set it off is for one influential podcaster/TV host to say AI is woke, or George Soros is behind it, or it was on Hunter Biden's laptop. No one expected Covid vaccine or "Happy Holidays" to fall into the "culture war" but here we are.

predicted NO

@Ruthanne6b it sounds like you're suggesting that the right could easily become anti-A.I. That alone is not sufficient for this question to resolve YES. The left would need to also become pro-A.I. All that has to happen to stop that is for one influential podcaster/TV host to say AI is racist, or the Koch brothers are behind it, or it was from Russia.

predicted YES

@LukeHanks Good point. I kind of agree that "the left" isn't obviously pro-AI. But the criterion is, it gets to where if you express an opinion about AI, people make an assumption as to where you fall on the political spectrum. If I referred to "pro-life", or "reproductive rights", you'd have a pretty good idea where I stand on that.

predicted NO

@Ruthanne6b Your "pro-life" or "reproductive rights" example is a good analogy.

Not just any opinion about AI counts; it has to be pro or against, and from that pro-or-against position alone people need to assume whether you are left or right aligned. If both the left and right are anti-A.I. then this question resolves NO. If both the left and right are pro-A.I. then this question resolves NO. At least that's how I interpret the description.

predicted YES

@LukeHanks Well I guess we'll see what happens. In my experience at least it's not a binary. There is a lot of "culture war" that consists of "the right" yelling about things that the middle and most of the left doesn't care about, or didn't until it came up. Gay wedding cakes, "Happy Holidays," etc. Sure there's some yelling on "the left" but a good deal of that is groups on the left yelling at each other.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Ruthanne6b The description requires a binary situation, so given your statements it seems to me you should be betting NO. Whatever, this disagreement is where there is profit to be had for one of us. The price of a YES share is about as low as it has ever been, so go ahead and buy a bunch. My limit orders are waiting.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@LukeHanks thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.

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