I have a position in this one though.

People two "Culture War In 2024?" markets are open and what better time to take a view than now? I will not bet in my own market linked below.

https://manifold.markets/ClubmasterTransparent/will-the-culture-war-come-for-ai-be?r=Q2x1Ym1hc3RlclRyYW5zcGFyZW50

Since 2023 market is on track to resolve to NO, here's one for 2024

All that has to happen to set it off is for one influential podcaster/TV host to say AI is woke, or George Soros is behind it, or it was on Hunter Biden's laptop. No one expected Covid vaccine or "Happy Holidays" to fall into the "culture war" but here we are.

@Ruthanne6b it sounds like you're suggesting that the right could easily become anti-A.I. That alone is not sufficient for this question to resolve YES. The left would need to also become pro-A.I. All that has to happen to stop that is for one influential podcaster/TV host to say AI is racist, or the Koch brothers are behind it, or it was from Russia.

@LukeHanks Good point. I kind of agree that "the left" isn't obviously pro-AI. But the criterion is, it gets to where if you express an opinion about AI, people make an assumption as to where you fall on the political spectrum. If I referred to "pro-life", or "reproductive rights", you'd have a pretty good idea where I stand on that.

@Ruthanne6b Your "pro-life" or "reproductive rights" example is a good analogy.

Not just any opinion about AI counts; it has to be pro or against, and from that pro-or-against position alone people need to assume whether you are left or right aligned. If both the left and right are anti-A.I. then this question resolves NO. If both the left and right are pro-A.I. then this question resolves NO. At least that's how I interpret the description.

@LukeHanks Well I guess we'll see what happens. In my experience at least it's not a binary. There is a lot of "culture war" that consists of "the right" yelling about things that the middle and most of the left doesn't care about, or didn't until it came up. Gay wedding cakes, "Happy Holidays," etc. Sure there's some yelling on "the left" but a good deal of that is groups on the left yelling at each other.

@Ruthanne6b The description requires a binary situation, so given your statements it seems to me you should be betting NO. Whatever, this disagreement is where there is profit to be had for one of us. The price of a YES share is about as low as it has ever been, so go ahead and buy a bunch. My limit orders are waiting.

@LukeHanks thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.

Still NO.

AI regulatory capture is a talking point of a presidential candidate:

https://twitter.com/HirshSingh/status/1684670959934918656?s=20

@BairAiushin First time I've heard of Hirsh Vardhan Singh, but I don't follow the popularity contests to rule the US very closely.

New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-AI side to come up with new arguments why AI is bad, to restore equilibrium.

Seems doubtful. Tech usually doesn't attract much in the way of partisan attention, though they still get shook down by the odd congressman with the right committee appointment to make their lives difficult. This is part of how social media ended up surprised by their negative press - it was outside the norm.

I expect AI to end up more like crypto than social media - harassed by a not-insignificant crew of congress critters, but not on a partisan basis.

@AndrewHartman Crypto is definitely partisan, no? Progressives are near unanimously against it due to environmentalism and anti-libertarianism.

@IsaacKing Aren't the largest crypto mines all running on renewable energy because it's cheaper than fossil fuels? I'm pretty sure liberals were pro-civil liberties before this latest batch of rejects went all in on "vaccines and driver's licenses are anti-freedom".

@marnet Not all of them, especially now that China has banned crypto I think.

@IsaacKing So far as I can tell, the environmentalism angle seems to be more of a convenient pretext used by people who oppose it for other reasons than any sort of coherent ideological opposition. And, similarly, I expect that general opposition to AI won't end up being particularly partisan, though I anticipate that different commentators will use varying points/language to articulate their hostility depending on their ideological priors.

Still NO. We all hate AI, for different reasons.

It looks like lefty authors are circling the wagons about short-term risks ("ethics") and painting long-term risks ("safety") as a right-wing dogwhistle.

https://twitter.com/xriskology/status/1657436378106322944?s=20

So if one side does eventually become "pro-AI", I think it will happen because one of those goals becomes much more optimistic than the other.

Safety seems doable -> Right-wing becomes pro-AI

Ethics seems doable -> Left-wing becomes pro-AI

For culture war, it's the perception that matters, not the ground truth. Ethics has larger mindshare and deeper roots in the existing culture war, so it currently seems like the bigger problem. But if safety advocates can continue their recent PR momentum, I expect both sides hang onto AI fears for a long time.

@LoganTurner A fuller treatment from the Ethics side, maintaining there is no 'schism'.

Rather, there are two separate threads — only one of which can properly be called a body of scholarship

…

Timnit Gebru and Émile Torres have done excellent work in tracing what they call the TESCREAL bundle of ideologies, connecting modern work on “AGI” with Longermism and ultimately eugenics.

https://medium.com/@emilymenonbender/talking-about-a-schism-is-ahistorical-3c454a77220f

Talking about a ‘schism’ is ahistorical

In two recent conversations with very thoughtful journalists, I was asked about the apparent ‘schism’ between those making a lot of noise…

The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right has to become unambiguously pro-AI. While it's possible that they'll do exactly this just to own the libs, I doubt it, given that the jobs panic is a pretty bipartisan concern (not to mention all the fears about how 'woke' AI is).

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/openai-ceo-to-testify-before-congress-for-the-first-time-next-week.html

Markets ought to adjust

@whloooomer Some of the questions they are planning on asking:

• "Mr. Altman, one of my VCR tapes has some of the tape stringing out of it and I can't get it back in. How do you expect Chats PPP is going to help the American people solve this?"

• "Mr. Altman, some of what the cyber people are saying is that China has already gotten a hold of our AI and as a result has better AI than us. I would like for you to lay out for us how you are combatting China and what you are doing to stop China from robbing the American people."

• "Mr. Altman, as we all clearly know, the 2020 election was a total hoax, the voting machines were rigged, everything is rigged, the Democrats are burning this country to the ground. Thank you, I yield the rest of my time."

@whloooomer Which side are people expecting to become pro after this, as is a necessary condition on this resolving yes?