BBC: Finland to join Nato military alliance on Tuesday
"Finland will become the 31st member of Nato on Tuesday, the Western military alliance's secretary general has announced."

sold Ṁ347 of YES

predicted YES

“Finland could now become a formal member of NATO within days.”

Link

bought Ṁ65 of NO

All countries have signed off, but according to this BBC article

Finland will now be formally admitted into Nato at its next summit, taking place in July in Lithuania.

predicted NO

Seems like this is a fact the market should have known.

predicted YES

@BoltonBailey https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-join-nato-memeber-turkey-parliament-vote/ "Finland could now become a formal member of NATO within days."

predicted YES

AFAIK the summit is not required since both Finland and Sweden have already been formally invited by the last summit

sold Ṁ45 of NO

@dgga Interesting. The BBC was explicit while the Politico article uses weasel word "could", so I would be inclined to believe the BBC, but it does seem like they would want to add it as soon as possible. "Within days" still leaves some room for it to happen after 4/15, even if before the summit.

@BoltonBailey

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm

5. The Secretary General invites the potential new members to accede to the North Atlantic Treaty

Once all NATO member countries notify the Government of the United States of America, the depository of the Washington Treaty, of their acceptance of the protocols to the North Atlantic Treaty on the accession of the potential new members, the Secretary General invites the new countries to accede to the Treaty.

6. Invitees accede to the North Atlantic Treaty in accordance with their national procedures

7. Upon depositing their instruments of accession with the US State Department, invitees formally become NATO members

Finland already preemptively did #6 and #7 AFAIK, so as far as I can tell, there is one step in #5 that requires Turkey (Turkey has voted in favor but the official paperwork, or whatever, to that effect has to be submitted). It will probably be done before the 15th....