control defined as either the war is over and crimea is back as part of ukraine or over 50% of if is occupied by ukrainian forces as of close date. according to BBC news maps
Sep 14, 10:16pm: Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023 → Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023
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NO -
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has been relatively slow and not tactically efficient by any stretch of the imagination. " The public mood is somber. Criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, has increased, and the reasons for the dissatisfaction are clear. Having once promised a march to Crimea, occupied and annexed by Russia since 2014, the political leadership in Kyiv now emphasizes more realistic expectations. "(Economist)
The Russian President is back in-charge of the state after a brief period of un-certainty following the former, now deceased leader of the Wagner group having led a coup against the Kremlin and president Putin. Wagner was recently killed in an aircraft accident/crash and the group is back in the control of the Russians'. " After Prigozhin's death, Putin ordered Wagner fighters to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian state - a step that Prigozhin had opposed due to his anger at the defence ministry that he said risked losing the Ukraine war."(Reuters)
The Ukrainian President Zelensky is trying to shore up both financial and military support for the counter offensive. His efforts seem to not be bearing the sort of fruits that he had hoped for. The Ukrainians' have only gained a couple of kilometers on their counter offensive effort. " A source in the general staff says that Ukraine has received just 60 Leopard tanks, despite the promise of hundreds. Demining vehicles are particularly scarce. Lack of air cover is another difficulty. The source adds that Ukraine’s army was never blind to the challenges of breaching Russian minefields and defence lines without air superiority. On August 20th the Dutch and Danish prime ministers said they would donate up to 61 of the jets, starting in the new year." (Economist)
NO -
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has been relatively slow and not tactically efficient by any stretch of the imagination. " The public mood is somber. Criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, has increased, and the reasons for the dissatisfaction are clear. Having once promised a march to Crimea, occupied and annexed by Russia since 2014, the political leadership in Kyiv now emphasizes more realistic expectations. "(Economist)
The Russian President is back in-charge of the state after a brief period of un-certainty following the former, now deceased leader of the Wagner group having led a coup against the Kremlin and president Putin. Wagner was recently killed in an aircraft accident/crash and the group is back in the control of the Russians'. " After Prigozhin's death, Putin ordered Wagner fighters to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian state - a step that Prigozhin had opposed due to his anger at the defence ministry that he said risked losing the Ukraine war."(Reuters)
The Ukrainian President Zelensky is trying to shore up both financial and military support for the counter offensive. His efforts seem to not be bearing the sort of fruits that he had hoped for. The Ukrainians' have only gained a couple of kilometers on their counter offensive effort. " A source in the general staff says that Ukraine has received just 60 Leopard tanks, despite the promise of hundreds. Demining vehicles are particularly scarce. Lack of air cover is another difficulty. The source adds that Ukraine’s army was never blind to the challenges of breaching Russian minefields and defence lines without air superiority. On August 20th the Dutch and Danish prime ministers said they would donate up to 61 of the jets, starting in the new year." (Economist)
NO -
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has been relatively slow and not tactically efficient by any stretch of the imagination. " The public mood is somber. Criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, has increased, and the reasons for the dissatisfaction are clear. Having once promised a march to Crimea, occupied and annexed by Russia since 2014, the political leadership in Kyiv now emphasizes more realistic expectations. "(Economist)
The Russian President is back in-charge of the state after a brief period of un-certainty following the former, now deceased leader of the Wagner group having led a coup against the Kremlin and president Putin. Wagner was recently killed in an aircraft accident/crash and the group is back in the control of the Russians'. " After Prigozhin's death, Putin ordered Wagner fighters to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian state - a step that Prigozhin had opposed due to his anger at the defence ministry that he said risked losing the Ukraine war."(Reuters)
The Ukrainian President Zelensky is trying to shore up both financial and military support for the counter offensive. His efforts seem to not be bearing the sort of fruits that he had hoped for. The Ukrainians' have only gained a couple of kilometers on their counter offensive effort. " A source in the general staff says that Ukraine has received just 60 Leopard tanks, despite the promise of hundreds. Demining vehicles are particularly scarce. Lack of air cover is another difficulty. The source adds that Ukraine’s army was never blind to the challenges of breaching Russian minefields and defence lines without air superiority. On August 20th the Dutch and Danish prime ministers said they would donate up to 61 of the jets, starting in the new year." (Economist)
It’s this glacially slow entrenched boring war and the media are the meme of the guy with the stick poking it and saying “c’mon do something” but the most likely outcome is approximately status quo borders while they continue to kill each other for decades and elites enrich themselves by diverting foreign aid.
The Ukraine offensive is not as fast yet as I expected it would be (still enough time left in Summer / early Fall though).
Recent events illustrate how fragile the system in Russia is. Putin basically can't control situation inside the country, let alone outside / on borders. Any large armed force can see that "it costs nothing to challenge the central government" AND there are a lot of different groups with military force now in Russia.
The great collapse is not far away now, in 2023.
@Lavander I'm happy to take the other side of that. The Russian collapse is going to be much worse than people realize. I have a hunch that it's going to involve greater use of amphibious movement than people have realized was possible for the Ukrainians, such as an opening descent on Skadovsk Raion (outside the mouth of the Dnipro Delta, bypassing the swampy zones) to turn the defenses in Kherson region. That would put direct pressure on the Perekop Isthmus very early in the campaign, and possibly involve at least a partial break-in to Crimea itself. I doubt the Ukrainians could or would try to actually storm Crimea in a direct thrust, but the point is by breaking in to the Perekop defenses they could create a "giant sucking sound" of reinforcements from other potential targets, such as Zaporizhzhia where the roads are good. Basically I expect a Ukrainian attack along those lines to completely unhinge and defeat the Russians and leave them struggling to hold, at best, the 2014 borders over the winter.
@BenjaminIkuta don't bother, that is all propaganda @EvanHarper is unwittingly posting--just like that counteroffensive that never happens. Meanwhile, the Russians can absorb losses for years...
@Berg Dude, I have a Kerch bridge I'm willing to sell to you. Russia had 20 million dead in WW2; the highly fatalistic Russian soul cares not for tragedy.
@AlQuinn that's not a good argument since the Soviet Union and Russian Federation are fundamentally different entities. If we going to rely on personal generalizations and presumptions, then my point will be stronger since being a Russian myself, I am more closely familiar with the topic. So yes, you're wrong.
@Berg The USSR was dominated by Russia, of course, so your point is rather pedantic. Also find it funny that you assume I'm not Russian myself (half Russian anyway). Haven't been there in a few years but do have a good grasp of the cultural differences wrt the west.
@Berg not sure whether the russians can absorb losses is going to be the deciding factor then... putin won't be convinced to stop the war even if it is causing lots of russians to suffer, probably because he believes it will be worse long-term if russia backs down (and that is possibly true, but it doesn't condone his actions imo)