Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023 | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31, 2023

World Russia Wars

Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023

33%

chance

control defined as either the war is over and crimea is back as part of ukraine or over 50% of if is occupied by ukrainian forces as of close date. according to BBC news maps

Sep 14, 10:16pm: ~~Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023~~ → Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023

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bought Ṁ16 of YES

arb against https://manifold.markets/ElliottC/will-ukraine-take-back-crimea-by-th

Tassilo Neubauer

bought Ṁ30 NO from 34% to 33%

sold Ṁ11 NO at 34%

bought Ṁ30 NO at 34%

bought Ṁ30 NO from 35% to 34%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 35%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 35%

sold Ṁ9 YES at 35%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 35%

bought Ṁ15 NO from 36% to 35%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 38% to 36%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 38%

created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 48%

created limit order for Ṁ53 YES at 28%

sold Ṁ9 YES at 38%

created limit order for Ṁ120 YES at 30%

filled limit order Ṁ251/Ṁ500 NO at 38% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 40% to 38%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 41% to 40%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 41%

bought Ṁ55 NO from 44% to 42%

bought Ṁ25 NO from 45% to 44%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 45%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 YES at 45% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 48% to 44%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 49% to 48%

Mad software developer

bought Ṁ40 NO from 51% to 49%

Matias Christensen

bought Ṁ10 YES at 51%

Zygohistomorphic

bought Ṁ10 NO at 51%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ46/Ṁ100 NO at 51% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 49% to 53%

sold Ṁ44 NO from 47% to 49%

bought Ṁ15 YES at 47%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 47%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 47%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 47% to 48%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 45% to 47%

bought Ṁ35 NO from 46% to 45%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 48% to 46%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 48%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 49%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 49%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ12 YES at 49%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 53% to 49%

bought Ṁ13 NO at 53%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 53%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 55% to 53%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 56%

filled limit order Ṁ168/Ṁ168 YES at 38%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ13 YES at 56%

filled limit order Ṁ198/Ṁ200 NO at 55% (cancelled)