Will Levels.fyi's next report claim that software engineer salaries continued to decline through 2023?
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resolved Dec 21
Resolved
YES

According to Levels.fyi's end of year pay report, salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing from 2021 until the start of 2023. Will their next* report show this trend buckling or holding steady?

Resolves N/A if they do not publish such a report.

This market has been heavily subsidized.

*Edit: next "end of year pay report"

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sold Ṁ2 of NO

IMO when you subsidize a market and everyone mispredicts, the market creator should get more money back than he put in, since we provided negative value.

"Resolve as to date in the past" would do that....

predicted YES

it'd also provide me an incentive to provide information instead of

predicted YES

@Mira What is it to you?

bought Ṁ31 of YES
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Given that there has been an increase in taxation of programming I believe wages will decrease.

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/congress-is-running-out-of-time-to-fix-a-critical-rd-tax-issue-in-2023/

@DeanValentine I assume by "next report" you mean the end of year one, but please make that explicit in the title and description.

Edit: oh and please clarify if you mean the "Software Engineer" job family specifically. There's some other breakdowns as well.

@jskf I mean the next end of year report.

predicted NO

@DeanValentine and on the job family? Could you post a screenshot of the previous report and highlight the number you'll be looking for in the 2023 one?

I was going to bet on this, but then it occurred to me that levels.fyi's data is probably very selection-biased in weird ways, from their report:

Since we've collected significantly more data this year than last year, this year's data may actually be more representative than that of last year's overall. Certain locations and experience levels may also be more represented than others by the uneven spread and awareness of our site. But despite these potential biases, it's interesting to observe the pullback in median compensation

Despite this, compensation has still generally increased relative to last year at the topmost companies and levels

Comparing May 2022 and 2021 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from bls.gov, both 'Software and Web Developers, Programmers, and Testers', 'Computer Programmers', 'Software Developers', had like 10% increases with time. I think those are nominal increases. (And that makes sense, combining inflation and continued but slowing growth of the industry). Combine that with 'significantly more data' and the obvious hypothesis is that levels.fyi started as mostly used by subgroups that are paid more, and now is becoming more representative.

So I have ... no idea how to bet on this.

(also not my area of expertise i could just be making a basic mistake etc)

this might be wrong actually m

Programmers are fucked. Indians are fucked. Capitalism is collapsing.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

It doesn't matter for the 2021-2022 report because it declined regardless, but is this measured in real or nominal terms?

@DanStoyell it declines if the number on the sheet deceases, so nominal.