Binance collapses before the end of 2023
26%
chance

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MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch
is predicting NO at 26%

Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch
is predicting NO at 26%

The market really seems to be settling at 3:1 odds so I'll set that price and will take any size.

KCS avatar
KCS
is predicting YES at 27%

@MarcusAbramovitch Smash that limit order button if you mean it!

alangrow avatar

Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: "Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps reserves for almost half of its 94 Binance-peg tokens ⁠— worth over $539 million ⁠— mixed up with customer funds inside a $16.5 billion exchange wallet"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-24/binance-bnb-acknowledges-storing-users-crypto-with-reserves-in-error

DrewSpartz avatar
Drew Spartz
bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think for many markets like these, people are trading on noise. I heard from one particular large crypto fund manager that he hears at least one credible rumor per week of a major exchange being insolvent.

I would have to hear many credible rumors about Binance insolvency before I'd update.

nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 20%

https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this market!) about Signature Bank imposing a 100k floor for users making SWIFT transactions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-22/binance-says-signature-sets-transaction-minimum-amid-pullback Bloomberg reporting on the same basic event

nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 19%

An order allowing Binance(.US) to buy out Voyager has been released: https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentsbydocket?docketId=980605&projectCode=VDH2&docketNumber=860&source=DM


SEC is, to the best of my knowledge, still concerned that Binance/Binance.US can't secure customer assets they way they promised. https://cases.stretto.com/public/x193/11753/PLEADINGS/1175301042380000000080.pdf

Word on the street is that Binance might just make up obstacles to paying out to Voyager users. https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2023/01/15/crypto-collapse-bitcoin-goes-up-nexo-charged-gbtc-still-wants-to-be-an-etf-crypto-exchanges-struggle-ftx-voyager/ under "Voyager and Binance: life in Chapter 11"

nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 33%
nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 23%

SEC has started cracking down on Gemini and Genesis, alleging they sold unregulated securities (esp. Gemini's Earn program). https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7

As I discussed in a comment below, I don't expect this to be the only action like this SEC will take on major crypto companies, and that BNB (and as I didn't note, some other weird tokens like BUSD on BC) are pretty suspect and are being traded by Binance US.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
bought Ṁ1,013 of NO

BNB denominated in bitcoin is close to an all time high.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ250 of NO

Dudes only want one thing and it’s Binance to collapse so it doesn’t look like the only criminal mastermind on crypto was one of theirs

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
is predicting YES at 26%

@Gigacasting > Implying that SBF is the only criminal in crypto

AlgUien avatar
Alg Uien
is predicting YES at 37%

I expect >70% chance of collapse.

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovoroda
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AlgUien File a limit order 🙃

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch
is predicting NO at 45%

@AlgUien I think somethint like a 20-25% chance of collapse. Would be happy to do a real money bet on this.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch
is predicting NO at 45%

@MarcusAbramovitch I think people are way over updating on FTX

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 42%

Note that people will buy mana with real money, so you can always just bet lots of mana and then the winner sells it.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch
bought Ṁ60 of NO

@IsaacKing not sure how long that will last + this market won't be super liquid + betting at somethint appropriate for us (like even even odds) would take a lot of clicking

Mira avatar
Mira
bought Ṁ0 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch If you need liquidity, I left a M$10k limit order at 40% for you. I would probably buy NO @ 70%, so I don't think even odds makes sense. I would also do M$15k @ 35% and M$20k @ 30%.

nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 35%

The further specifics of how the law's coming down on FTX sure makes me think it might put some wind in the sails of e.g. the DOJ et al.'s criminal investigation of Binance for money laundering (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/) or the smattering of class-action suits at Binance.US (a frequent theme being accusing them of misleading users by selling them unregistered securities). Concerning that latter, it would not stun me if "cryptocurrencies obviously count as securities under the Howey test" ended up being at least a minor point established somewhere in the FTX cases: there's a lot more FTX higherups left to shake down.

nfd avatar
nfd
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@nfd One such token that you could call "obviously a security" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar in its basic premise to FTT (though obviously I don't have any unique evidence that they're using magic beans to prop up their valuation like FTX apparently did; I would've just lead with that).

nfd avatar
nfd
bought Ṁ10 of YES
nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 23%

This market opened briefly after news concerning [a mini-bank run](https://www.reuters.com/technology/binance-sees-withdrawals-19-billion-last-24-hours-data-firm-nansen-says-2022-12-13/) dropped. Today, news that [a financial auditing firm that Binance used is pulling out of crypto, including removing a Binance proof-of-reserves audit published just published on the 7th of this month](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/mazars-to-pause-all-work-for-crypto-clients-binance-says-lbqbamw7) dropped.

ASomewhatRudeParakeet avatar
A Somewhat Rude Parakeet
bought Ṁ50 of YES

The collapse of Binance has long been predicted, and for good reason. And the reasons have been getting better of late. I'll take 50/50 odds

Tassilo avatar
Tassilo Neubauer
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.

nfd avatar
nfd
is predicting YES at 43%

@Tassilo It's all small potatoes still, but "since 2017" doesn't sound that Lindy to me...

This far out, it's a bet on the general instability of the crypto market continuing. The interesting canaries have just been getting bigger this year

nfd avatar
nfd
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Chipping in a small yes because all crypto companies are Quadriga or will eventually become Quadriga. Binance probably isn't the worst org to have on your 2023 deadpool.