Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds
The market really seems to be settling at 3:1 odds so I'll set that price and will take any size.
Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: "Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps reserves for almost half of its 94 Binance-peg tokens — worth over $539 million — mixed up with customer funds inside a $16.5 billion exchange wallet"
I think for many markets like these, people are trading on noise. I heard from one particular large crypto fund manager that he hears at least one credible rumor per week of a major exchange being insolvent.
I would have to hear many credible rumors about Binance insolvency before I'd update.
https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this market!) about Signature Bank imposing a 100k floor for users making SWIFT transactions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-22/binance-says-signature-sets-transaction-minimum-amid-pullback Bloomberg reporting on the same basic event
An order allowing Binance(.US) to buy out Voyager has been released: https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentsbydocket?docketId=980605&projectCode=VDH2&docketNumber=860&source=DM
SEC is, to the best of my knowledge, still concerned that Binance/Binance.US can't secure customer assets they way they promised. https://cases.stretto.com/public/x193/11753/PLEADINGS/1175301042380000000080.pdf
Word on the street is that Binance might just make up obstacles to paying out to Voyager users. https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2023/01/15/crypto-collapse-bitcoin-goes-up-nexo-charged-gbtc-still-wants-to-be-an-etf-crypto-exchanges-struggle-ftx-voyager/ under "Voyager and Binance: life in Chapter 11"
SEC has started cracking down on Gemini and Genesis, alleging they sold unregulated securities (esp. Gemini's Earn program). https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7
As I discussed in a comment below, I don't expect this to be the only action like this SEC will take on major crypto companies, and that BNB (and as I didn't note, some other weird tokens like BUSD on BC) are pretty suspect and are being traded by Binance US.
Seeing several discussions about Binance struggling
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2023/01/09/binance-is-bleeding-assets-12-billion-gone-in-less-than-60-days/?sh=6131636d15cf
Dudes only want one thing and it’s Binance to collapse so it doesn’t look like the only criminal mastermind on crypto was one of theirs
@AlgUien I think somethint like a 20-25% chance of collapse. Would be happy to do a real money bet on this.
Note that people will buy mana with real money, so you can always just bet lots of mana and then the winner sells it.
@IsaacKing not sure how long that will last + this market won't be super liquid + betting at somethint appropriate for us (like even even odds) would take a lot of clicking
@MarcusAbramovitch If you need liquidity, I left a M$10k limit order at 40% for you. I would probably buy NO @ 70%, so I don't think even odds makes sense. I would also do M$15k @ 35% and M$20k @ 30%.
The further specifics of how the law's coming down on FTX sure makes me think it might put some wind in the sails of e.g. the DOJ et al.'s criminal investigation of Binance for money laundering (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/) or the smattering of class-action suits at Binance.US (a frequent theme being accusing them of misleading users by selling them unregistered securities). Concerning that latter, it would not stun me if "cryptocurrencies obviously count as securities under the Howey test" ended up being at least a minor point established somewhere in the FTX cases: there's a lot more FTX higherups left to shake down.
@nfd One such token that you could call "obviously a security" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar in its basic premise to FTT (though obviously I don't have any unique evidence that they're using magic beans to prop up their valuation like FTX apparently did; I would've just lead with that).
This market opened briefly after news concerning [a mini-bank run](https://www.reuters.com/technology/binance-sees-withdrawals-19-billion-last-24-hours-data-firm-nansen-says-2022-12-13/) dropped. Today, news that [a financial auditing firm that Binance used is pulling out of crypto, including removing a Binance proof-of-reserves audit published just published on the 7th of this month](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/mazars-to-pause-all-work-for-crypto-clients-binance-says-lbqbamw7) dropped.
The collapse of Binance has long been predicted, and for good reason. And the reasons have been getting better of late. I'll take 50/50 odds
Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.
Chipping in a small yes because all crypto companies are Quadriga or will eventually become Quadriga. Binance probably isn't the worst org to have on your 2023 deadpool.
