Binance collapses before the end of 2023
resolved Jan 2

Gracefully winding down doesn't count, it must be somewhat catastrophic, similar to FTX. Happening unexpectedly in a short time frame, leaving other people at a disadvantage, etc.

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For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:

predicted YES

U.S. chief legal and risk officers depart

U.S. CEO resigns

predicted YES

@BillyGmoney good sign that there are troubles. but also signals that they might try to stabilize so it's in the air

predicted YES

@Stralor “collapse” prior to end of ‘23 still a huge longshot. lots of theta burning. Still new here and didn’t realize there’s ones for ‘24 and ‘25

predicted YES
predicted YES

I guess that I'm having difficulty understanding so many of the NO positions here.

The exchange is under serious civil litigation that, if proven, will bankrupt it. There's rumors of a sealed criminal indictment that, if it exists, would put it out of business. The exchange has no headquarters.

BTC and ETH, according to the TA, show some of the strongest daily downtrends in their history, and liquidity on exchanges has dried up, placing pressure on profits.

What are people seeing here that doesn't scream fraud?

@SteveSokolowski It feels like the lamentations of Berry et al towards the end of The Big Short

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the facade up. As long as they don't run out of suckers, why give up?

predicted NO

litigation is slow, binance is big and exists in many countries so binance leaving the US isn't it dying entirely, binance collapse by 2024 and 2025 is higher

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be over.

The problem I have with the NO bidders is that it's pretty obvious that the entire cryptocurrency industry is built upon fraud. One of the ideas I've started to think about is whether Satoshi actually had fraud in mind when he set out to design a money system that could enable the most massive frauds in the history of the world. That would certainly explain why he chose to remain anonymous.

The industry is in a slow decline, but I don't think that will become obvious to most until the next halving occurs and the price spikes, but stalls out in the $40,000s range. There are still people who think that bitcoin is going to be worth $100,000, but I still think the scale of the fraud here is beyond anything the world has ever seen (except, perhaps, for the defense contractors stealing money to work on UFOs, regardless of whether there actually are extraterrestrials or not.)

predicted NO

@SteveSokolowski I've put large no limit orders if you would like to bet against me

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Sure. There was just a sealed document with 35 exhibits filed by the SEC against Binance. There's no possible way that could be good news, as the SEC has almost never done that before for any case, ever.

predicted NO

@SteveSokolowski as i said, i have large limit orders at 14 and 15%

@MarcusAbramovitch I'm not sure I want to go up that high. But I did buy it up to 11% already and might go higher after I look at the TA to see if it indicates that people know something about the sealed motion.

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski revealed preferences. Now you understand why the people are betting NO.

The richest and best trader in the website is offering you odds just a bit higher than were you made the comment and you're not buying. Revealed preferences

predicted YES

@MP Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the end of the year are a better bet. NO wins on those markets whether Binance fails, DCG declares bankruptcy, and Nexo, Ledn, or any one of the massive frauds that define cryptocurrency fail. I'm not as "rich" as others here are, unfortunately.

predicted NO

@MP I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, particularly @NinthCause.

What do traders think of Metaculus' similar market? Are these markets tracking different things, or is Metaculus miscalibrated (26% at time of comment)?

@kenakofer I just logged into metaculus for the first time in a while and registered a prediction. I have a limit order at 14% if you want to trade against me.

My limit orders got cancelled due to insufficient funds a few hours ago but i have more mana again.

predicted NO

a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance

what if only one of binance us, binance does this?


@Gen Thanks all, appreciated

I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.

predicted NO
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